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Analysis
New York Rangers vs Edmonton Oilers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 9, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Oilers moneyline at -154. The model gives Edmonton 69%, above the 60.6% break-even at that price.
- Edmonton scores 4.11 goals per game and converts 33.8% on the power play; New York scores 3.06.
- The Rangers are 2-5-1 on the road and without Igor Shesterkin (season-ending knee injury).
- New York's 89.1% penalty kill and Garand's .906 are the counterpunch.
The Edmonton Oilers (12-3-3) host the New York Rangers (10-7-1) at Rogers Place on Monday, Nov. 9 at 8:00 PM ET (MSG and ESPN+ in the US, Sportsnet+ in Canada). Edmonton is -154 on the moneyline, New York +128 to +130, with the total at 6.5. The Rangers bring a three-game win streak to Alberta, but they are 2-5-1 on the road and playing without Igor Shesterkin. Our pick: Oilers moneyline (-154).
How these teams got here
Edmonton leads the Pacific with 27 points and is 6-2-2 in its last 10. The Oilers bounced back from a 5-4 home loss to Anaheim on Thursday with a 4-2 win over Vancouver on Saturday, when Devon Levi stopped 20 of 22. One quirk: they're 7-0-1 on the road but only 5-3-2 at Rogers Place.
The Rangers have won three straight: 3-1 over St. Louis, 3-2 over Philadelphia and 4-3 at Seattle on Saturday. That run came mostly at home, where they're 8-2-0. Away from Madison Square Garden it's been a different team, 2-5-1, and they're 4-5-1 over their last 10. Both clubs had Sunday off, so neither is on a back-to-back.
These teams met eight days ago. Edmonton won 4-1 at the Garden on Nov. 1, with Matt Tomkins stopping 27 of 28 shots.
Edmonton's power play vs. New York's penalty kill
This is the matchup that decides the night. Edmonton's power play is converting 33.8%. New York's penalty kill sits at 89.1%. One of those numbers has to give.
The Oilers' firepower is a lot. Connor McDavid has 47 points (10 goals, 37 assists) in 18 games. Leon Draisaitl has 16 goals, eight on the power play. And Evan Bouchard has 31 points from the blue line. As a team, Edmonton scores 4.11 goals per game to New York's 3.06.
The Rangers run through Adam Fox (22 points, 20 assists) and Alexis Lafrenière (nine goals, 18 points). Their own power play is at 20.8%, and Edmonton's kill is the soft spot on this roster at 75.0%. If the Rangers are going to steal one, it's by drawing penalties and making the Oilers pay.
In goal, Daily Faceoff projects Dylan Garand for New York and Devon Levi for Edmonton, both unconfirmed as of Sunday night. Garand is 6-6-1 with a 2.52 GAA and .906 save percentage in 13 games. Levi is 7-1-0, but with a 2.97 GAA and .889. Tristan Jarry (.902 in eight starts) is the other option. On paper, the crease is New York's edge.
The Shesterkin gap and Edmonton's banged-up middle
Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a season-ending right knee injury that requires surgery. He posted a .927 save percentage in five starts before going down. Garand has carried the load since, with Joonas Korpisalo taking Saturday's start in Seattle. The blue line is thin too: Sean Durzi is on IR, and Alberts Smits is day-to-day.
Edmonton's concern is down the middle. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins took a puck to the side of the head against Vancouver and didn't finish the game. He's listed day-to-day after scoring 11 points, three of them on the power play, in nine games. Colton Dach is day-to-day with an illness, and Matt Savoie and Isaac Howard are on IR. If Nugent-Hopkins can't go, the second power-play unit takes the hit, but the top unit runs through McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard either way.
Prediction: Oilers moneyline (-154)
We're taking Edmonton on the moneyline at -154.
- The model is 69% on the Oilers. That clears the 60.6% break-even at -154 by a wide margin.
- The offense gap is real: 4.11 goals per game against 3.06.
- The power play gap is wider: 33.8% vs. 20.8%.
- The Rangers travel poorly: they're 2-5-1 on the road, compared with 8-2-0 at home.
- Edmonton already won this matchup 4-1 eight days ago in New York.
The risk: New York's penalty kill and Garand's numbers are both better than Levi's. If the Rangers keep this at even strength and the Oilers' 75.0% kill leaks again, it's a coin flip.
On the total: Oilers games have averaged about 7.2 combined goals and Rangers games about 5.9, which leaves 6.5 right where it should be. No play on the total.
