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Analysis
San Jose Sharks vs New York Islanders Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 9, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives the Islanders 56% (low confidence), in line with the -127 to -135 road price.
- San Jose has lost five straight, outscored 22-8, and ranks 30th in goals for (2.47) and 29th in goals against (3.58).
- The Islanders are 0-2-1 in their last three and allowed 14 goals in that span.
- Projected goalies: Sorokin (.910) vs Askarov (.885), both unconfirmed.
The New York Islanders (7-6-3) visit the San Jose Sharks (7-11-1) at SAP Center on Monday at 10:00 PM ET (NBC Sports California, MSG Sportsnet). New York is a -127 to -135 road favorite, San Jose sits at +107 to +114, and the total is 6.5 at most books. The Sharks have lost five straight, but the Islanders limp in at 0-2-1 over their last three. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
San Jose is in free fall. The Sharks dropped their last two home games, 5-1 to Ottawa and 2-1 to Calgary, then went 0-3 on the road at Los Angeles (7-2), Minnesota (4-1) and Dallas (4-3). That's five losses in a row by a combined 22-8, a 3-7-0 mark over the last 10, and only two regulation wins all season. The underlying numbers back up the record: 2.47 goals per game (30th) and 3.58 allowed (29th). Home ice hasn't helped either; the Sharks are 3-5-0 at SAP Center.
The Islanders aren't arriving hot, though. They closed a homestand with three straight losses: 4-0 to Edmonton, 5-3 to Carolina and 5-4 in overtime to New Jersey on Saturday, one point from a possible six. They're 4-3-3 over their last 10 and 3-3-1 on the road. The defense is still the calling card at 3.00 goals allowed per game (10th), but the offense has been thin at 2.88 per game (24th).
Rest is even. Both teams last played Saturday, so each gets a day off, though New York crossed the country to open a trip that runs through Los Angeles on Thursday.
Sorokin vs a leaky Sharks crease
The biggest gap on paper is in goal. Ilya Sorokin is 6-4-1 with a 2.64 GAA and .910 save percentage and one shutout, and he made 45 saves on 50 shots against New Jersey on Saturday. Daily Faceoff lists him as the projected starter, unconfirmed as of early Monday.
San Jose's tandem has struggled behind a team allowing 30.1 shots per game (28th). Daily Faceoff projects Yaroslav Askarov (4-8-0, 3.35 GAA, .885), who lost Friday in Minnesota. Alex Nedeljkovic (3-3-1, 3.23, .895) took Saturday's loss in Dallas. As a team, the Sharks are stopping just .881 of shots.
Up front, Macklin Celebrini carries San Jose with 21 points (7 goals, 14 assists) in 17 games, including three assists in Dallas. Will Smith has seven goals. For New York, Bo Horvat has 16 points with four power-play goals, and rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer also has 16, six of them in the last five games. The Islanders win 56.1% of their faceoffs (2nd), while San Jose wins 47.2% (26th), so New York should have the puck more off draws.
Special teams and the injury list
The special-teams matchup cuts both ways. New York's penalty kill (85.7%, 5th) should blunt a Sharks power play that converts 21.4% (18th). The Islanders' own power play is a problem at 14.6% (29th), though San Jose's kill (76.5%, 17th) is beatable.
The Islanders' blue line is short-handed. Ryan Pulock (upper body) is out on a 2-4 week timeline set Nov. 1, and Alexander Romanov (knee) is on injured reserve. Mathew Barzal (knee) hasn't played this season and is still on IR. He returned to practice Nov. 4, and the team says he and Matias Maccelli were full participants at the Nov. 7 morning skate. Neither had been activated when we checked, so a surprise return would add a scoring threat the market hasn't priced. Calum Ritchie is also on IR.
For San Jose, center Alexander Wennberg and winger Igor Chernyshov, both on IR since Oct. 28 with upper-body injuries, are the notable absences.
Prediction: No edge
No edge. The Islanders are the better team, and the price already says so.
- The model matches the market. It gives New York 56% with low confidence, and -127 to -135 implies about 56-57%.
- The Sharks' slide is real. They've been outscored 22-8 in five straight losses and rank bottom-three in both goals for and against. All of that is in the number.
- New York's week is shaky too. The Islanders allowed 14 goals in their last three games, including 50 shots on Saturday, and their 25.4 shots per game rank 28th.
- The goalie gap is the one real lean. Sorokin's .910 beats Askarov's .885, but neither starter is confirmed.
Swing factor: goalie confirmations and whether Barzal or Maccelli is activated. Either Islanders forward returning would move us toward New York.
On the total: it's 6.5 with the under juiced to -118 to -128, and one book is still dealing 6. Islanders games have averaged 6.0 total goals and Sharks games 6.2, both near the number, so there's no total play either.
