Maple Leafs vs Mammoth Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 13)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker ·
Last updated: October 13, 2026 | Odds checked: October 13, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
The Toronto Maple Leafs (3-2-1) visit the Utah Mammoth (4-2-0) Tuesday at 9:10 PM ET at Delta Center, on Utah16 and Mammoth+ locally and TSN4 in Canada. Utah is a -159 to -164 favorite. The hook: Utah's 40% power play meets a Toronto penalty kill that's killing 95%. Our pick: no edge — our model agrees with the market on Utah, but not by enough to bet.
Maple Leafs vs Mammoth Odds
| Market | Price range |
|---|---|
| Maple Leafs moneyline | +132 to +136 |
| Mammoth moneyline | -159 to -164 |
| Maple Leafs +1.5 | -175 to -189 |
| Mammoth -1.5 | +145 to +152 |
| Over 6.5 | -118 to -120 |
| Under 6.5 | +100 to -106 |
At -159 to -164, Utah carries an implied win probability of 61.4% to 62.1%. Our model has Utah at 61%, right in line with the market.
Maple Leafs: Matthews Is Rolling
Toronto scores 3.33 goals per game and allows 2.83, per NHL.com. Auston Matthews has 10 points (4 goals, 6 assists) over his last five games.
The penalty kill is the story: 95.0% so far. The power play is a solid 26.3%. The concern is volume against: the Leafs allow 30.2 shots per game while taking 27.8.
In goal, Toronto hasn't confirmed a starter. Sergei Bobrovsky (1-2-1, 2.97 GAA, .907) started the last two games; Anthony Stolarz is 2-0-0, 2.44 GAA, .904.
Last game: a 6-3 win at Colorado Saturday, after a 4-3 shootout loss at Vegas and a 5-4 overtime win vs Nashville.
Mammoth: Volume and a Red-Hot Power Play
Utah scores 3.67 goals per game, allows 2.50, and controls the shot clock: 31.8 for, 22.5 against per game. The power play is converting 40.0%; the penalty kill (77.3%) is the weak spot.
Nick Schmaltz has seven points (five goals) in his last five games, and Clayton Keller has five assists, per NHL.com.
Karel Vejmelka is the projected starter (unconfirmed): 3-1-0, 2.13 GAA, .907, one shutout.
Last game: a 4-1 win at Buffalo Saturday. Before that: a 6-1 loss at Boston and a 5-3 win at New Jersey.
Key Matchup: Utah's Power Play vs Toronto's Kill
| Stat | Maple Leafs | Mammoth |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for/game | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| Goals against/game | 2.83 | 2.50 |
| Shots for/game | 27.8 | 31.8 |
| Shots against/game | 30.2 | 22.5 |
| Power play | 26.3% | 40.0% |
| Penalty kill | 95.0% | 77.3% |
Something has to give on special teams, and both numbers are early-season extremes. At 5-on-5, Utah's shot edge (+9.3 per game vs Toronto's -2.4) is the more stable signal, and it's a big reason the Mammoth are favored.
Injury Report
| Team | Player | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | Chris Tanev | D | IR (upper body) |
| TOR | Zack MacEwen | C | IR |
| UTA | Michael Carcone | LW | Out (upper body) |
| UTA | Maveric Lamoureux | D | IR (shoulder) |
Daily Faceoff also lists Max Domi, Dakota Joshua and Elvis Merzlikins on Toronto's injured reserve.
Most Efficient NHL Handicappers on SportsHub
Profit per dollar matters as much as volume. Three NHL handicappers with standout ROI over the last 15 days (Sep 29–Oct 13):
| Handicapper | Record | Win % | Net ($) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Ferguson | 7-2 | 77.8% | +$506 | 46.1% |
| Evan Lewis | 8-3 | 72.7% | +$441 | 32.5% |
| Pro Picks - James | 9-4 | 69.2% | +$471 | 25.1% |
Small samples, so the records are front and center. Track them on our handicapper leaderboard.
Maple Leafs vs Mammoth Prediction
Our pick: no edge. Our model gives Utah a 61% chance with low confidence, a hair under the 61.4% to 62.1% the market already implies. There's no value on Utah at this price and no case for Toronto.
- Shot share favors Utah: +9.3 per game against Toronto's -2.4.
- Toronto's kill (95.0%) can neutralize Utah's best weapon.
- Matthews' form (10 points in five) keeps the Leafs live as an underdog.
- The total sits at 6.5 with the over juiced to -118 to -120; two hot power plays push one way, two .907 goalies the other.
The risk on Utah's side: special-teams variance. One Toronto power-play goal against a 77.3% kill flips the script.
Projected score: Mammoth 4, Maple Leafs 3 — close to the market's number, which is why we're passing.
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