Analysis
Lightning vs Predators Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 31, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Lightning moneyline at -169 (medium confidence). Our model gives Tampa Bay 65%; the best licensed price implies 62.5%.
- Tampa Bay outshoots opponents 30.4 to 24.3 per game; Nashville is outshot 29.1 to 25.8.
- Nashville's special teams are elite: 31.8% power play (4th) and 88.1% penalty kill (4th), against Tampa's 16.3% power play (27th).
- Tampa Bay is 7-2-1 in its last 10; Nashville is 3-3-4 with only four regulation wins all season.
The Tampa Bay Lightning (8-3-1) visit the Nashville Predators (4-4-5) at Bridgestone Arena on Saturday at 2:00 PM ET, on The Spot in the Tampa Bay market and Scripps local TV in Nashville. Tampa Bay is -167 to -175 on the moneyline with the total at 6.5. The tension: the Lightning win the shot count by a wide margin, while the Predators own the special-teams battle. Our pick: Lightning moneyline (-169).
How these teams got here
Tampa Bay is 7-2-1 in its last 10 and won its last game, 6-4 over Winnipeg on Thursday. The Lightning score 3.67 goals per game (5th in the NHL) and are a perfect 6-0-0 at home. The catch is the road: they're 2-3-1 away from Amalie Arena, including a 6-3 loss in Colorado and a 5-4 overtime loss in Utah on their last trip.
Nashville has been stuck in the loser-point zone. The Predators have five overtime or shootout losses in 13 games and only four regulation wins. They're 3-3-4 in their last 10, lost 4-3 to Washington on Thursday and dropped a 4-3 shootout to the Islanders two nights before that. Their 6-2 win over Colorado on Oct. 25 is their only win in the last five. Offense is the issue: 2.85 goals per game, 23rd in the league.
Neither side is on a back-to-back. Both teams last played Thursday.
Shot volume vs. a lethal power play
This is a clean stylistic split. Tampa Bay drives the shot count: the Lightning average 30.4 shots per game (6th) and allow only 24.3 (4th). Nashville takes 25.8 (24th) and allows 29.1 (24th). That's a shot gap of more than six per game for Tampa and a deficit of more than three for Nashville, and Tampa gets there with a below-average power play.
Special teams flip the script. Nashville's power play converts at 31.8% (4th) and its penalty kill sits at 88.1% (4th). Tampa Bay's power play is at 16.3% (27th) and its kill is 78.1% (16th). Every Lightning penalty is a real risk, and Ryan O'Reilly already has four power-play goals.
The scorers line up accordingly. Brandon Hagel leads Tampa with 8 goals and 16 points, Nikita Kucherov has 15 points (11 assists) and Jake Guentzel has 7 goals. For Nashville, Steven Stamkos (7 goals, 15 points), Filip Forsberg (15 points) and Roman Josi (14 assists) carry the attack.
In goal, Andrei Vasilevskiy is projected for Tampa but not confirmed. He's 6-3-0 with a 2.91 GAA and .876 save percentage, numbers well below his usual standard. Juuse Saros is projected for Nashville, also unconfirmed, at 3-3-4 with a 2.94 GAA and .902. On paper Saros has been the better goalie this season.
Lineup notes
Tampa Bay lists center Zemgus Girgensons as day-to-day with a lower-body injury reported Oct. 30, and Yanni Gourde remains on injured reserve with a hip injury. Nashville has defenseman William Trudeau on injured reserve. No top-six forward or top-pair defenseman is listed for either team, so the bigger lineup question is the crease: if Dennis Hildeby (2-0-1, .885) or Justus Annunen (1-1, .846) gets the start instead, that shifts the read.
Prediction: Lightning moneyline (-169)
We're taking the Lightning moneyline at -169. The reasons:
- Shot share. Tampa Bay's 30.4-for, 24.3-against profile is top-six at both ends; Nashville is bottom-nine at both.
- Finishing. The Lightning score 3.67 per game; the Predators score 2.85.
- Form. Tampa is 7-2-1 in its last 10. Nashville has four regulation wins all season.
- Price. Our model gives Tampa Bay 65%. The best licensed price, -167, implies 62.5%, so there's a modest edge at medium confidence.
The swing factor is the penalty box. Nashville's top-five power play against a Tampa kill at 78.1% is the Predators' clearest path, and Vasilevskiy's .876 doesn't leave much margin. Tampa's 2-3-1 road record is the other knock.
On the total, 6.5 is shaded to the under at -133 to -135. Lightning games have averaged 6.83 total goals per game; Nashville's goals for and against per game add up to 5.93. We don't have a play on it.
