Analysis
Red Wings vs Blues Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 31 Matinee)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has St. Louis at 51% (very low confidence), short of the 52–54% priced into the -109 to -118 moneyline.
- The Blues' power play converts 25.7% (8th) against a Detroit penalty kill at 66.7% (29th).
- Projected goalies split sharply: Joel Hofer .923 for St. Louis, confirmed starter John Gibson .874 for Detroit.
- Detroit plays without suspended center Dylan Larkin but outshoots opponents 29.8 to 25.2 per game.
The St. Louis Blues (6-6-1) visit the Detroit Red Wings (6-4-3) for a Halloween matinee at Little Caesars Arena, 1:00 PM ET on DSN, STLNHL and BN+. The market barely splits them: St. Louis -109 to -118, Detroit -102 to -109. The tension: Detroit drives the play, St. Louis owns the special-teams and goaltending numbers, and the Wings take the ice without Dylan Larkin. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Detroit has 15 points in 13 games, is 5-2-3 in its last 10 and has won two straight. Thursday's 4-1 win over Chicago came with John Gibson stopping 18 of 19 shots, and Monday's 4-3 shootout win in Edmonton came with Michal Postava in net. The Wings are 4-3-1 at home.
St. Louis sits at 13 points through 13 games, and the ride has been bumpy. The Blues were shut out in back-to-back home games, 4-0 by Carolina and 2-0 by Montreal, then answered with a 4-1 win over Boston on Thursday behind 30 saves from Joel Hofer. They're just 2-4-0 on the road.
Both teams were off Friday, so nobody is on a back-to-back. The goal rates are close: Detroit scores 2.69 per game (26th) and allows 2.77 (6th); St. Louis scores 3.00 (19th) and allows 2.92 (9th).
Special teams and the crease
This is where St. Louis makes its case. The Blues' power play converts 25.7% (8th) and runs into a Detroit penalty kill that has held at just 66.7%, 29th in the league. Flip it around and the Wings' power play (21.7%, 14th) faces a Blues kill at 85.3% (6th). If this game gets chippy, the numbers point one way.
The goaltending gap leans the same direction. Detroit has confirmed Gibson, per Daily Faceoff, and he's 4-4-1 with a 3.15 GAA and .874 save percentage. Hofer is the projected Blues starter but unconfirmed: 5-3-1, 2.24 GAA, .923 and a shutout. Jordan Binnington (1-3-0, .846) is the other option, and a switch would change the picture.
Detroit's answer is territory. The Wings average 29.8 shots (7th) and allow 25.2 (8th), while St. Louis takes 27.3 (18th) and gives up 28.1 (20th). Viktor Arvidsson leads Detroit with 8 goals (4 on the power play), and Alex DeBrincat leads in points with 15. For St. Louis, Jimmy Snuggerud has 7 goals, Mason McTavish 6 and Dylan Holloway a team-high 11 points.
Detroit's thin middle
Larkin won't play. Per The Detroit News, the Wings suspended him without pay after he told the team he would no longer play for Detroit; he sat out Thursday's win over Chicago. He had 2 goals and 4 assists in 10 games. That leaves Emmitt Finnie centering the top line between DeBrincat and Arvidsson, with Andrew Copp on the second line, per NHL.com's projected lineup.
The middle was already short. Marco Kasper (upper body) and Mason Appleton (undisclosed) are on injured reserve, and coach Todd McLellan put both 10 to 14 days away. Defenseman Albert Johansson will miss at least three more games, and Simon Edvinsson remains off the roster in a contract dispute.
St. Louis is expected to dress the same lineup that beat Boston. Colton Parayko didn't practice Friday with an upper-body injury but is considered probable. Tyler Tucker, Logan Mailloux, Dillon Dube and Ross Johnston remain on injured reserve.
Prediction: No edge
The model makes St. Louis a 51% winner at very low confidence. The market already prices the Blues at roughly 52% to 54%, so there's no value on either side. The case splits cleanly:
- Blues: their power play (25.7%) against Detroit's 29th-ranked kill (66.7%).
- Blues: the projected goalie edge, Hofer's .923 against Gibson's .874.
- Wings: a shot share of 29.8 for and 25.2 against, against a Blues team that allows 28.1.
- Wings: home ice, where they're 4-3-1, against a Blues team that's 2-4-0 on the road.
- Wings, with a catch: they beat Chicago without Larkin, but they're down three regular centers.
The swing factor is the Blues' crease. Hofer in goal tilts this toward St. Louis; Binnington would tilt it back.
On the total, 5.5 carries an over price of -120 to -132, and some books have moved to 6. Detroit's games average 5.46 goals and St. Louis' 5.92, which straddles the number, so we're passing there too.
