Analysis
Lightning vs Blue Jackets Prediction, Picks & Odds (Thursday, Nov 12)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Lightning moneyline (-118). The model gives Tampa Bay 65%, against a market price of -114 to -120 (about 53–55%).
- Tampa Bay scores 3.71 goals per game and is +10 in goal differential; Columbus scores 2.44 and is -10.
- Columbus has only two regulation wins in 16 games and is 4-6-0 over its last 10.
- The risk: Tampa is on the second night of a road back-to-back, without Brayden Point (IR), with Dennis Hildeby the likely starter.
The Tampa Bay Lightning (11-4-2) visit the Columbus Blue Jackets (7-9-0) on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET at Nationwide Arena (ESPN+, The Spot, WWHO). Licensed books have Tampa Bay at -114 to -120, Columbus at -102 to +100. The tension: the Lightning are on the second night of a road back-to-back and without Brayden Point, but Columbus has just two regulation wins all season. Pick: Lightning moneyline (-118).
How these teams got here
Tampa Bay is 6-2-2 over its last 10 and sits 24 points deep, but the split is stark: 8-0-0 at home, 3-4-2 on the road. The Lightning dropped a 4-3 decision in Winnipeg on Sunday, the game Point left and didn't return from. They play in Buffalo on Wednesday night, so Thursday is the back half of a road back-to-back.
Even with that travel, the profile is a winning one. Tampa scores 3.71 goals per game, allows 3.06, and sits at +10 in goal differential.
Columbus is going the other way. The Blue Jackets are 4-6-0 in their last 10, have lost two straight, and fell 4-1 to Florida on Tuesday despite outshooting the Panthers 39-28. Columbus scores 2.44 goals per game, allows 3.19, and is -10 in goal differential. Five of its seven wins have come in overtime or a shootout. Home ice has helped (6-4-0 at Nationwide, 1-5-0 away), and the Jackets will have had a day off while Tampa travels.
Shot share vs. the Columbus crease
The underlying numbers lean hard toward Tampa. The Lightning average 29.9 shots per game and allow 24.7; Columbus takes 26.6 and gives up 28.2. That's a team that controls play against one that spends more time defending.
Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa with 22 points (5 goals, 17 assists). Jake Guentzel has 10 goals and Brandon Hagel 9. For Columbus, Kent Johnson leads with 8 goals and 16 points, and Zach Werenski has 12 assists from the back end.
The goaltending question is real. Andrei Vasilevskiy was expected to start in Buffalo on Wednesday, per Daily Faceoff. In Tampa's two earlier back-to-backs (Oct. 23–24 and Nov. 7–8), the Lightning split the nights between Vasilevskiy and Dennis Hildeby, so Hildeby is the likely Thursday starter, though that isn't confirmed. Their numbers are close: Vasilevskiy .883 / 2.85 GAA, Hildeby .880 / 2.95 with a 3-0-1 record.
Columbus has the better netminder on paper. Cam Talbot is .909 with a 2.51 GAA (5-3) and started Tuesday; Jet Greaves sits at .880 and 3.36 (2-6). The Jackets haven't named Thursday's starter.
Special teams are a wash. Tampa's power play converts 19.4% to Columbus' 17.1%, and both penalty kills are leaky (72.9% for Tampa, 73.9% for Columbus).
Point's absence and the Columbus injury list
Point went on injured reserve Tuesday with an undisclosed injury after leaving Sunday's game. He has 16 points in 17 games, so Tampa loses a top-six center on a night when its legs are already tested.
Columbus has its own questions. Conor Garland (upper body) was ruled out of Tuesday's game against Florida, per Daily Faceoff, and the team hasn't given a status for Thursday. Dmitri Voronkov and Sean Monahan both left the Nov. 6 game in Buffalo but were back in the lineup Tuesday.
Prediction: Lightning moneyline (-118)
Pick: Lightning moneyline (-118).
- The model has Tampa Bay at 65%, while -114 to -120 implies roughly 53–55%. That gap is wide enough to survive a back-to-back discount.
- Scoring gap: 3.71 goals per game for Tampa vs. 2.44 for Columbus, with goal differentials of +10 and -10.
- Shot share: Tampa wins the shot battle by about five per game; Columbus loses it by about 1.6.
- Columbus can't close in regulation: two regulation wins in 16 games, and a 4-6-0 run over the last 10.
The risk: this is the spot where Tampa is most vulnerable. Second night, road ice, likely the backup in net, no Point, and a 3-4-2 road record. If Talbot steals it, this goes the other way.
On the total: 6.5, with the under priced at -130 to -137. Lightning games have averaged 6.8 total goals, Columbus games 5.8, so there's no clear lean.
