Analysis
Ottawa Senators vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 12, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans Colorado at 59% with low confidence, and the -120 to -122 moneyline already prices most of that in.
- Colorado scores 4.11 goals a game to Ottawa's 3.05, and its power play (22.6%) runs nearly 10 points ahead of Ottawa's (12.7%).
- The venue splits it: Colorado is 4-5-0 on the road, Ottawa 6-2-1 at home.
- Ottawa's net is the swing: Ullmark (.945) is day-to-day, and Ersson (.885) is projected but unconfirmed.
The Colorado Avalanche (11-6-2) visit the Ottawa Senators (11-6-2) on Thursday, Nov. 12 at 7:00 PM ET at Canadian Tire Centre, on TSN5/RDS2 in Ottawa, Altitude in Colorado and ESPN+. Colorado is a short road favorite at -120 to -122, with the total at 6.5. Same 24 points, very different profiles: the Avs score 4.11 goals a game, the Sens 3.05, and Ottawa's goalie is still a question. SportsHub's call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Colorado arrives on a two-game win streak. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped all 27 shots in a 4-0 win over Detroit on Nov. 7, and the Avs followed it with a 6-3 win at Toronto on Tuesday, with Blackwood making 28 saves. They're 6-3-1 over their last 10 and carry a +19 goal differential (78 for, 59 against), the gap that separates them from a team with the same point total.
The soft spot is the road. Colorado is 7-1-2 at home but 4-5-0 away, and Thursday is its second straight road game.
Ottawa has been steadier than spectacular. The Senators are 6-2-1 at home and 5-3-2 over their last 10, with a +3 goal differential (60 for, 57 against). They beat Buffalo 2-1 and Utah 4-2 before a 3-2 overtime loss to Washington on Tuesday. Both teams were off Wednesday, so neither side is on a back-to-back.
Colorado's power play vs. Ottawa's penalty kill
This is where the matchup tilts. Nathan MacKinnon leads Colorado with 30 points (10 goals, 20 assists) in 19 games. Martin Necas has 24 points, Cale Makar has 23 in 18 games, and Artturi Lehkonen leads the team with 13 goals. Colorado's power play converts 22.6% of its chances; Ottawa's penalty kill sits at 76.1%. Flip it and the gap is just as wide: Ottawa's power play runs at 12.7% into a Colorado kill at 78.6%.
The Avs also control the volume, averaging 30.4 shots a game to Ottawa's 25.7. Ottawa's counter is Tim Stützle (9 goals, 14 assists), Drake Batherson (18 points) and Shane Pinto (7 goals), plus a 53.8% faceoff rate that can keep the puck away from MacKinnon's line.
In net, Daily Faceoff lists Blackwood (unconfirmed) for Colorado: 10-3-1, 2.63 GAA, .901 save percentage, with a shutout. Scott Wedgewood (1-3-1, 4.02, .867) is the alternative. For Ottawa, Daily Faceoff projects Samuel Ersson (unconfirmed): 3-3-2, 3.11 GAA, .885. He made 14 saves on 17 shots against Washington.
Ullmark's status is the swing
Linus Ullmark has been Ottawa's best player when healthy: 7-1-0, 1.33 GAA, .945 save percentage in eight starts. He came off injured reserve on Nov. 8 with a lower-body injury but sat out Tuesday's game, and ESPN lists him as day-to-day. If he starts, Ottawa's biggest weakness, a team save percentage of .888, looks very different. If it's Ersson again, Colorado's shot volume becomes a bigger problem.
The rest of Ottawa's list hits the forward depth. Nick Cousins is out with an upper-body injury after a hit from Jakob Chychrun on Tuesday, and three left wingers are on injured reserve: William Eklund (ankle surgery), Warren Foegele (knee) and Andre Burakovsky (lower body). Colorado is without defenseman Josh Manson (ankle, long-term injured reserve) and Zachary L'Heureux. Makar left practice early on Nov. 8 but played Tuesday in Toronto.
How the line has moved
Colorado opened at -125 with Ottawa at +105, and the line has drifted to -120 / +100 at most books. That's a small move toward the home side. The total has held at 6.5, but the under is the juiced side at -118 to -122.
Prediction: no edge
The model makes Colorado a 59% favorite but labels it low confidence. The -120 to -122 price implies about 55%, or roughly 52% once the vig comes out. That gap isn't strong enough to back the road team. No edge.
- Colorado's offense is real: 4.11 goals a game against Ottawa's 3.05, with a power play nearly 10 points better (22.6% vs. 12.7%).
- The venue pushes back: Colorado is 4-5-0 on the road, and Ottawa is 6-2-1 at home.
- Shot volume favors the Avs: 30.4 shots a game against Ottawa's 25.7 and a team save percentage of .888 behind it.
- The goalie question cuts both ways: Ullmark's .945 against Ersson's .885 is the biggest swing on the board, and neither starter is confirmed.
The swing factor is Ullmark. If Ottawa confirms him on Thursday morning, Colorado's edge at the top of the lineup shrinks. On the total, Colorado's games average about 7.2 combined goals and Ottawa's about 6.1. The market already leans under at -118 to -122, so there's no total play either.
