Analysis
Minnesota Wild vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 12, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Our pick: Wild moneyline (-169). The model has Minnesota at 74%, above the 61-64% the market implies.
- Minnesota allows 2.20 goals per game; Toronto allows 3.45 and has given up 17 in a four-game losing streak.
- Wallstedt (.925, 1.93 GAA) against Bobrovsky (.881) or Stolarz (.908). Both starters were unconfirmed Wednesday night.
- Toronto's edge is special teams: a 28.1% power play and an 86.4% penalty kill.
The Minnesota Wild (13-3-4) visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (8-10-2) on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena (Sportsnet in Canada, Wild+ in Minnesota, ESPN+ elsewhere in the US). Minnesota is a -156 to -175 road favorite, with the total at 6.5. The tension: Toronto has dropped four straight and allowed 17 goals doing it, while the Wild give up just 2.20 a night. Our pick: Wild moneyline (-169).
How these teams got here
Minnesota sits first in the Central with 30 points, going 7-1-2 over its last 10 and 8-3-2 on the road. The Wild won 2-1 in overtime at Montreal on Tuesday, with Jesper Wallstedt stopping 27 of 28 shots. Over 20 games they've scored 65 and allowed only 44.
Toronto is heading the other way. The Leafs lost 3-2 to Utah on Nov. 3, 4-2 to Montreal on Nov. 7, 4-0 to New Jersey on Nov. 8 and 6-3 to Colorado on Tuesday. That's 7 goals scored and 17 allowed in the four games. They're 4-7-1 at home, and their goal differential sits at -3 (67 for, 70 against).
Both teams were idle Wednesday, so rest is even. This isn't a back-to-back spot for either side.
Wallstedt against a leaky Toronto crease
This is the matchup that decides the game. Wallstedt is 12-2-3 with a 1.93 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 17 starts. He has started 17 of Minnesota's 20 games, and the three Calvin Pickard starts (.855) are the only real soft spot.
Toronto's two goalies haven't held up. Sergei Bobrovsky is 3-8-2 with a 3.47 GAA and an .881 save percentage in 13 starts, and he allowed five goals on 27 shots against Colorado on Tuesday. Anthony Stolarz (5-2-0, 2.72, .908) has been better, and he started the 4-0 loss to New Jersey on Sunday. As of Wednesday evening, Daily Faceoff listed Wallstedt and Bobrovsky as unconfirmed for Thursday.
The shot share backs the goalies up. Minnesota allows 25.8 shots per game, while Toronto allows 29.5. Kirill Kaprizov drives the Wild offense with 17 goals and 32 points, six of those goals on the power play, and Quinn Hughes has 21 assists from the back end. Auston Matthews (11 goals, 28 points) and William Nylander (22 points) carry Toronto, but they've had little help in the losing streak.
Toronto's lineup is thinning out
Morgan Rielly (lower body) is day-to-day and sat out Tuesday's loss to Colorado. He leads Toronto's defense with 12 assists, and the Leafs gave up six goals in his absence on Tuesday. Kirill Marchenko has been on injured reserve since late October after scoring 14 points in 14 games, four of his goals on the power play. Colton Sissons is out week-to-week, Zack MacEwen (wrist) missed Wednesday's practice, and Max Domi remains on long-term injured reserve.
Minnesota has its own hole on defense. Brock Faber (fractured skull) is on injured reserve, and Frank Seravalli reports he has a chance to return Saturday against Boston, so he isn't expected Thursday. The Wild just beat Montreal without him.
Special teams is where Toronto holds its ground. The Leafs run a 28.1% power play and an 86.4% penalty kill, against Minnesota's 27.1% and 79.0%. If this turns into a parade to the box, that's Toronto's best way back in.
How the line has moved
The Wild opened around -148 and have been bet up to the -156 to -175 range, with Toronto now +132 to +145. The market is moving toward the model's side, but it still prices Minnesota at about 61-64%.
Prediction: Wild moneyline (-169)
Our pick is the Wild moneyline at -169. The reasons:
- The model makes Minnesota a 74% favorite, well clear of the 61-64% the licensed prices imply.
- Goals against: 2.20 per game for Minnesota, 3.45 for Toronto.
- The goalie gap: Wallstedt's .925 against Bobrovsky's .881 or Stolarz's .908.
- Form: Toronto has lost four straight and is 4-7-1 at home, while Minnesota is 8-3-2 on the road.
- Absences: Toronto is missing Marchenko and possibly Rielly.
The risk is Toronto's special teams and the crease. A Pickard start would cut into Minnesota's edge, so check the confirmed goalies before puck drop.
On the total of 6.5, Minnesota's games average 5.45 goals and Toronto's average 6.80. Those numbers pull in opposite directions, so we're passing on the total.
