Analysis
Seattle Kraken vs Utah Mammoth Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 22, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Utah 55%, below the 62%-64% that the -164 to -175 moneyline implies, so we pass on the side.
- Utah's power play is converting at 36.1%, and Seattle's penalty kill sits at 72.4%.
- Utah allows just 22.5 shots per game; Seattle allows 31.0.
- Goalies are unconfirmed: Joey Daccord (.882) is projected for Seattle, Karel Vejmelka (.879) for Utah.
The Utah Mammoth (7-3-0) visit the Seattle Kraken (6-3-1) Thursday at 10 p.m. ET at Climate Pledge Arena, streaming on ESPN+, Hulu and Disney+. Utah is a -164 to -175 road favorite, Seattle +138 to +146, with the total at 6.5. The tension: a Utah power play converting 36.1% meets a Seattle penalty kill at 72.4%, while our model gives Utah only 55%. No edge: we pass on the side.
How these teams got here
Utah has not needed extra time yet. All 10 of its games have been decided in regulation, and it has won four of the last five, most recently a 5-4 home win over Pittsburgh on Monday. The Mammoth are 4-2 on the road and sit at 38 goals for, 31 against. Their three losses came by margins of two, five and four goals, including a 6-2 home loss to Edmonton on Oct. 17, two days after beating the Oilers 4-2 on the road.
Seattle is just back from a six-game road trip that went 3-2-1 and ended with an 8-3 beating in Florida. The Kraken answered with a 4-3 shootout win over Detroit on Tuesday, and both of their wins in the last four games came in a shootout. They are 2-1-0 at Climate Pledge Arena, with 39 goals for and 34 against.
The schedule tilts slightly toward Utah. The Mammoth last played Monday and get two days off; Seattle plays on one day of rest after a game that went past overtime.
Special teams and the crease
This is where the game lives. Utah's power play is scoring at 36.1%, and Seattle's penalty kill has stopped only 72.4% of chances. Utah's own kill is worse at 68.8%, so the Kraken power play (21.9%) has a real target too. Two leaky kills are why the total sits at 6.5 and not lower.
Utah also controls the shot count. The Mammoth take 30.1 shots per game and allow just 22.5; Seattle takes 26.5 and allows 31.0. Utah wins 53.0% of its faceoffs to Seattle's 52.0%.
The Utah attack runs through Nick Schmaltz (7 goals, 13 points) and Clayton Keller (4 goals, 9 assists), with Mikhail Sergachev adding 11 points from the back end. Seattle spreads it out: Chandler Stephenson leads with 9 points (8 assists), and Kaapo Kakko and Jared McCann have 8 each.
The goaltending is the counterweight. Neither starter was confirmed Thursday morning. Karel Vejmelka is projected for Utah (5-2-0, 2.89 GAA, .879 save percentage), and Joey Daccord for Seattle (3-2-0, 3.89 GAA, .882). Seattle's better numbers belong to Philipp Grubauer (2.72 GAA, .904 in six games). As a team, Seattle is saving .890 to Utah's .862, which is how the Kraken have stayed close despite being outshot.
Utah's thin blue line
The Mammoth's injuries are mostly on defense. John Marino is day-to-day with an upper-body injury after missing Monday's game against Pittsburgh, and Maveric Lamoureux is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury. Forward Michael Carcone is also on IR (upper body). If Marino can't go, Utah's defensive depth is tested against a Seattle lineup that gets scoring from four or five forwards.
Seattle is without defenseman Ryan Lindgren (IR, upper body) and forward Jacob Melanson (IR, chest). Lindgren's absence thins a defense that is already allowing 31.0 shots a game.
Watch the goalie confirmations in the afternoon. A Grubauer start for Seattle would shift the read more than any skater news.
Prediction: no edge on Kraken vs Mammoth
No edge. Utah is the better team on most of the numbers, but the price already says so:
- The market's -164 to -175 implies roughly 62%-64% for Utah. Our model has 55%, and its confidence is low.
- Utah's 36.1% power play against Seattle's 72.4% kill is the biggest single edge on the board, and it's priced in.
- Utah's shot gap (30.1 for, 22.5 against) is real, but Seattle's .890 team save percentage against Utah's .862 keeps the Kraken live as a home dog.
- Seattle plays on one day of rest; Utah has two. That nudges toward Utah, but not enough to pay -170.
The swing factor is the crease: neither goalie was confirmed this morning, and Seattle's two netminders have very different numbers.
On the total, both penalty kills are under 73% and Seattle's games have produced 73 goals in 10. The over at 6.5 has some support, but the under carries the heavier price, and with goalies unconfirmed we don't headline it.
