Analysis
Sharks vs Flames Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 2, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model leans San Jose at 66%, but only at low confidence, so we pass on a headline pick.
- Calgary is 1-5 on the road this season but 9-2-0 against San Jose since the start of 2023-24, per the Flames.
- The Flames' power play runs at 33.3% (3rd) into a Sharks penalty kill at 84.0% (8th).
- In goal: Askarov (.900) is projected against Wolf (.847), with Calgary's Cooley (.914) on injured reserve.
The San Jose Sharks (7-7-1) host the Calgary Flames (6-8-0) Monday at 9:00 PM ET at SAP Center (NBC Sports California; Sportsnet+ and TVA Sports in Canada). San Jose is a short home favorite at -125 to -135, with Calgary +105 to +114 and the total at 6.5. The hook: Calgary owns this matchup lately and plays well at home, but it is 1-5 on the road and down its best goalie. No edge: the model leans San Jose, but at low confidence.
How these teams got here
Both clubs lost Saturday and both have had a day off since. San Jose got flattened 5-1 by Ottawa at home, its third loss in four games. Coach Ryan Warsofsky didn't dress it up: "We were just slow all night." The Sharks are 3-4-0 at SAP Center and 4-3-1 on the road, and only two of their seven wins came in regulation. Five came in overtime or a shootout, which flatters a -11 goal differential.
Calgary dropped a 5-2 decision in Denver with call-up Arsenii Sergeev making his second career NHL start. The bigger picture is a team that opened 0-5 and has gone 6-3 since, including five straight wins at home. The catch is the travel: the Flames have one road win all season, and they score just 2.57 goals per game (28th in the NHL).
Neither team keeps the puck out of its own net. San Jose allows 3.40 goals per game (22nd) and 31.0 shots per game (31st). Calgary allows 3.71 (28th) and 30.1 shots (28th).
Special teams and the crease decide it
The best unit on the ice belongs to Calgary. The Flames' power play is clicking at 33.3%, third in the league. Matvei Gridin and Morgan Frost have three power-play goals apiece, and Joel Farabee (5 goals, 10 assists) has 12 points in his last eight games, per the Flames. San Jose's penalty kill is the counter at 84.0% (8th), and the Sharks' power play sits 12th at 23.1%.
For San Jose it starts with Macklin Celebrini: 16 points (5 goals, 11 assists) in 13 games. Will Smith leads the team with six goals, and Tyler Toffoli has three on the power play.
In goal, Daily Faceoff projects Yaroslav Askarov (4-5-0, 3.01 GAA, .900) for San Jose. He stopped 39 of 40 against Buffalo and 23 of 25 against Vancouver last week. Calgary is expected to go back to Dustin Wolf, whom the Flames called "likely to draw back into the starter's crease." Wolf's numbers are rough so far: 4.39 GAA and an .847 save percentage in seven appearances. He did beat Seattle 6-2 on Friday, stopping 20 of 22. Neither starter was confirmed as of Monday morning.
Calgary's missing pieces
The Flames are without Devin Cooley (injured reserve, lower body), and that's the absence that matters most. Cooley had been their best goalie at .914 with a 2.69 GAA. Without him, the job goes back to Wolf, with Sergeev as the backup. Calgary is also missing Jonathan Huberdeau (IR, hip), Connor Zary (out) and Samuel Honzek (IR), and Brennan Othmann is day-to-day with an upper-body injury.
San Jose is thin up front too, with Alexander Wennberg and Igor Chernyshov both on injured reserve with upper-body injuries. Quentin Musty remains on non-roster IR. Celebrini, who missed time in early October, has been in the lineup.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on Sharks vs Flames. The model makes San Jose a 66% favorite, but it flags that at low confidence, and we don't headline picks the model doesn't stand behind. The case for each side is split:
- San Jose: home ice against a Flames team that is 1-5 on the road, a top-10 penalty kill against Calgary's hot power play, and Askarov's .900 against Wolf's .847.
- Calgary: the Flames are 9-2-0 against San Jose since the start of 2023-24, per the team, and they won three of four last season. They also carry the better 10-game form (6-4-0 vs 4-5-1).
- The underlying numbers are a wash. San Jose's record leans on five extra-time wins, and the goal differentials (-11 vs -16) are close.
Swing factor: Calgary's power play. If San Jose takes penalties, a 33% unit can flip this on its own.
On the total: 6.5 is juiced toward the under (-118 to -122). Both teams average under three goals a game, but both rank bottom-10 in goals and shots allowed, and Wolf's save percentage is a red flag. That's no clear lean either way.
