Analysis
Chicago Blackhawks vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 2)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Avalanche moneyline (-244). The model gives Colorado 78% to win; the price implies 70.9%, and about 67-69% with the vig removed.
- Colorado leads the NHL at 4.21 goals per game; Chicago ranks 31st at 2.21.
- Chicago is outshot nightly: 23.0 shots per game (31st) while allowing 30.4 (29th).
- Caution flag: Colorado is 2-4-0 on the road and without defenseman Josh Manson (ankle).
The Colorado Avalanche (8-5-1) visit the Chicago Blackhawks (4-9-1) on Monday at 8 p.m. ET at United Center, on CHSN+ in Chicago and Altitude in Colorado. Licensed books price Colorado between -233 and -250, with the total at 6.5. The NHL's highest-scoring team (4.21 goals per game) meets the league's 31st-ranked attack (2.21). Chicago's best argument is Colorado's 2-4-0 road record. Pick: Avalanche moneyline (-244).
How these teams got here
Colorado has won two straight, beating New Jersey 5-2 on Oct. 28 and Calgary 5-2 on Saturday, and has scored 21 goals in its last five games. The Avs sit third in the Central with 17 points and a +15 goal differential. The catch is where they've piled those up: 6-1-1 in Denver, 2-4-0 everywhere else. Their last road game was a 6-2 loss in Nashville on Oct. 25.
Chicago is 1-3-1 in its last five and has 10 goals in that stretch. Saturday's 5-4 overtime loss in Boston was its best offensive night in weeks; before that, the Hawks had scored two or fewer in four straight. They're 4-4-0 at home and 0-5-1 on the road, so at least they're back in the building where they've been break-even. Only one team in the league has fewer points, and the -22 goal differential tells you why.
Both teams had Sunday off. The schedule spot belongs to Colorado's next game: the Avs play in Columbus on Tuesday, the back half of a back-to-back.
Colorado's volume vs. Chicago's thin attack
This one is a shot-volume mismatch. Colorado averages 30.6 shots per game (fourth in the NHL). Chicago allows 30.4 (29th) and generates only 23.0 (31st). The Blackhawks also win just 41.8% of their faceoffs, last in the league, so expect them to spend long stretches chasing the puck.
Nathan MacKinnon leads the Avalanche with 24 points (9 goals, 15 assists) in 14 games. Artturi Lehkonen has a team-high 12 goals, Martin Necas has 18 points and Cale Makar has 15 in 13 games. Chicago's offense runs through Connor Bedard, who has 9 points in 8 games and goals in each of the last two, and Patrick Kane (1-8-9 in 14).
In goal, Daily Faceoff lists Mackenzie Blackwood (7-3-0, 2.73 GAA, .897) for Colorado and Spencer Knight (4-7-0, 3.21, .897) for Chicago, both unconfirmed as of Monday morning. Blackwood has started 10 of 14 games, and with Columbus on deck, Scott Wedgewood (1-2-1, 3.48, .889) figures to take one night of the back-to-back. Arvid Soderblom started Saturday in Boston, so Knight should be rested.
Special teams don't help the home side. Chicago's power play converts 11.6% (31st), against a Colorado penalty kill at 76.9%. Colorado's power play runs at 20.5%.
Injuries and lineup
Colorado is without defenseman Josh Manson, who is expected to miss about eight weeks with an ankle injury, per The Denver Post. That thins a blue line that has already allowed 3.14 goals per game, and it's the main reason the Avs' defensive numbers deserve a little skepticism. Winger Zachary L'Heureux is on injured reserve, and Logan O'Connor is day-to-day for personal reasons. O'Connor has played three games this season, so neither absence touches the top of the lineup.
Chicago's question mark is defenseman Bowen Byram, listed day-to-day with an upper-body injury since Nov. 1. He has played six games for the Hawks this season. Without him, a defense that already gives up 30-plus shots a night gets thinner still.
Prediction: Avalanche moneyline (-244)
The model gives Colorado a 78% chance to win. The -244 price implies 70.9%, and with the vig removed the licensed market sits around 67-69%. That gap is the play:
- Scoring: Colorado's 4.21 goals per game ranks first, while Chicago's 2.21 ranks 31st.
- Shots: Colorado gets 30.6 a night, and Chicago allows 30.4 while managing only 23.0 of its own.
- Special teams: the Hawks' 11.6% power play gives them no way to steal goals.
- Goal differential: +15 against -22 over the same 14 games.
The risk is Colorado's road form (2-4-0) and a defense playing without Manson. A hot night from Knight is Chicago's only realistic path. The puck line (-1.5) is available at even money to +106 for bettors who want a plus price, but the model's call is the moneyline.
On the total: Colorado's games have averaged 7.4 combined goals, and Chicago's 6.0. Those cancel out around the 6.5 number, so there's no play on the total.
