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Analysis
Rangers vs Blues Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 3, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives the Rangers 56% at low confidence, about what the -120 to -125 price already implies.
- The Rangers are 6-2-0 at MSG but have lost four straight, allowing 22 goals in that stretch.
- Projected goalies: Joel Hofer (.916) for St. Louis vs. Dylan Garand (.896) for New York, with Shesterkin out for the season.
- New York's 89.1% penalty kill (3rd) meets a Blues power play converting 23.7% (10th).
The New York Rangers (7-7-1) host the St. Louis Blues (7-6-1) at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, Nov. 3, at 7:00 p.m. ET (MSG, Blue Note+). New York is a short home favorite at -120 to -125, with St. Louis +100 to +106. The tension: the Rangers are 6-2-0 at MSG, yet they've dropped four straight and are playing without Igor Shesterkin. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
The Rangers opened 6-0-0 at home, then the bottom fell out. They lost 5-4 in Toronto, 7-4 in Ottawa, 6-3 at home to Los Angeles and 4-1 at home to Edmonton on Sunday. That's 22 goals allowed in four games, and a 3-6-1 mark over their last 10. A 1-5-1 road record is the uglier half of a start that has them fifth in the Metropolitan.
St. Louis comes in warmer. After back-to-back home shutout losses to Carolina (4-0) and Montreal (2-0), the Blues beat Boston 4-1 and won 5-4 in Detroit on Saturday afternoon. They're 6-4-0 in their last 10 and 3-4-0 away from home, and they've had two days off to New York's one.
The scoring profiles are nearly identical: the Rangers have scored 45 and allowed 46, the Blues 44 and 42.
Garand vs. Hofer, and a Rangers offense that doesn't shoot
The goalie matchup is where this game tilts. Daily Faceoff projects Dylan Garand for New York and Joel Hofer for St. Louis, both unconfirmed Tuesday morning. Garand, pushed into the starter's job, is 4-6-1 with a 2.73 GAA and an .896 save percentage. Hofer has made 10 of the Blues' 14 starts and owns a 6-3-1 record, 2.42 GAA and .916. If Jordan Binnington (1-3-0, .846) gets the call instead, that gap closes fast.
Up front, New York runs through Adam Fox (17 points, 16 assists) and Alexis Lafrenière (9 goals, 16 points), with Mika Zibanejad at 12 points. The problem is volume: the Rangers average 24.9 shots per game, 29th in the league. St. Louis is balanced rather than explosive: Dylan Holloway has 12 points, Jimmy Snuggerud leads the team with 8 goals and Mason McTavish has 6.
Special teams split. The Rangers' penalty kill is elite at 89.1% (3rd), which blunts a Blues power play converting 23.7% (10th). Going the other way, New York's 20.0% power play (18th) meets an 83.3% St. Louis kill (9th). The Rangers also win more draws (54.4%, 6th) and allow fewer shots (26.1 per game to 28.0).
Shesterkin's absence and the Blues' thin blue line
Shesterkin was 3-1 with a 1.79 GAA when his right knee gave out Oct. 9 in Washington. The club ruled him out for the season, and Joonas Korpisalo is also on injured reserve. That's why a 24-year-old is carrying the crease. Defenseman Sean Durzi is day-to-day for New York.
St. Louis is short on defense. Colton Parayko, who averages 20:49 a night, is questionable with an upper-body injury after missing Saturday's win. Torey Krug is on long-term IR, Logan Mailloux (hand) is on IR and on a conditioning stint in the AHL, and Tyler Tucker remains out. Forward Ross Johnston is questionable, and Dillon Dube is on IR. If Parayko sits, a Rangers attack that struggles to generate shots gets a slightly softer target.
Prediction: no edge
Our model has the Rangers at 56%, at low confidence. The best price for New York (-120) implies 54.5%, so the gap is a rounding error, and the confidence label doesn't clear our bar. No edge.
- Home split: 6-2-0 at MSG is real, and it's why New York is favored.
- Form: four straight losses and 22 goals allowed cut the other way.
- Goaltending: Hofer's .916 against Garand's .896 favors St. Louis if both start.
- Special teams: the Rangers' 3rd-ranked kill against the Blues' 10th-ranked power play is the matchup to watch.
The swing factor is the crease: a Binnington start for St. Louis would make New York's price look short. As for the total, books sit between 5.5 (over priced -130 to -137) and 6. Rangers games have averaged 6.1 combined goals and Blues games 6.1 as well, so there's no play there either.
