Analysis
Islanders vs Oilers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 31, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Our pick: Oilers moneyline at -130 (medium confidence). The model gives Edmonton 69% vs. about 56.5% implied by the best price.
- Edmonton is 5-0-0 on the road and leads the NHL in goals per game (4.23) and power play (35.7%).
- Sorokin (.915) projects for New York against Jarry (.889); the Islanders allow just 2.62 goals per game (5th).
- No total play: the market sits at 6 to 6.5 between a high-event Oilers team and a low-event Islanders team.
The Edmonton Oilers (9-2-2) visit the New York Islanders (7-4-2) at UBS Arena on Saturday at 2 p.m. ET (MSGSN, Sportsnet), with Edmonton priced from -130 to -137 on the moneyline and the total sitting at 6 to 6.5. The hook: the NHL's No. 1 offense and No. 1 power play against a top-five defense with Ilya Sorokin projected in net. Our pick: Oilers moneyline (-130).
How these teams got here
Edmonton leads the Pacific with 20 points and hasn't lost on the road yet: 5-0-0 away from home, outscoring hosts 27-13 in those games. The Oilers come in rested after blanking Calgary 4-0 on Wednesday, and this matinee opens a New York swing that continues at the Rangers on Sunday.
The Islanders are 7-4-2 (16 points, fourth in the Metropolitan) and finished a three-game road trip with back-to-back extra-time wins, 4-3 in a shootout at Nashville and 4-3 in overtime at Minnesota, after a 6-3 loss in Dallas. They're 4-1-1 at home and have built their start on keeping the puck out of their own net: 2.62 goals allowed per game, fifth in the league.
Edmonton's power play vs. the Islanders' structure
The Oilers score 4.23 goals per game (first) and convert 35.7% of their power plays (also first). Connor McDavid has 36 points (8 goals, 28 assists) in 13 games, Leon Draisaitl has 12 goals, six on the man advantage, and Evan Bouchard has 22 points from the blue line.
That runs into a New York penalty kill working at 86.4% (fifth), and the Islanders win 55.1% of their faceoffs (second), which matters when every Edmonton power play starts with a draw. Five-on-five, the teams are even on volume: both average 26.1 shots per game.
The goaltending gap favors New York on paper. Sorokin, the projected starter, is 6-3-0 with a .915 save percentage and 2.34 GAA. Edmonton has confirmed Tristan Jarry, who is 3-1-2 with an .889 and 2.95, though he stopped all 24 shots he faced against Calgary.
The flip side is ugly for both specialty units: New York's power play is 23rd at 17.5%, and Edmonton's penalty kill is 24th at 71.4%.
Who's missing
The Islanders are thin down the middle. Mathew Barzal (knee) and Calum Ritchie are on injured reserve, as are winger Matias Maccelli and defenseman Alexander Romanov, and Ryan Pulock is day-to-day. Bo Horvat (7 goals, 14 points, four on the power play) and defenseman Matthew Schaefer (14 points) carry more of the load.
Edmonton is without Zach Hyman (IR), a big piece of its net-front power play, plus Matt Savoie. Devon Levi is also on IR and Frederik Andersen remains out long term, which is why Jarry has started the last three games.
Prediction: Oilers moneyline (-130)
We're on the Oilers moneyline at -130.
- Our model gives Edmonton a 69% win probability, well above the 56.5% implied by the best available price.
- Edmonton is 5-0-0 on the road and leads the league in scoring at 4.23 goals per game.
- The special-teams math favors the visitors: a 35.7% power play against a New York power play running at 17.5%.
- Without Barzal, the Islanders' attack ranks 19th at 3.00 goals per game, a tough way to chase a team that scores this much.
The risk is in Edmonton's crease. Jarry's .889 and a defense allowing 3.23 goals per game (18th) leave room for Sorokin to steal a low-event game. On the total, Oilers games average more than seven goals, Islanders games under six, and the 6 to 6.5 number splits the difference, so we have no play there.
