Analysis
Islanders vs Stars Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 25, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Stars moneyline at -200 (high confidence). The model gives Dallas 73%, above the roughly 67% the licensed price implies.
- Dallas allows a league-low 1.60 goals and 22.0 shots per game, and Jake Oettinger is at .939.
- The Islanders are without Mathew Barzal, Matias Maccelli, Calum Ritchie and Alexander Romanov.
- NHL.com's projected lineup lists Semyon Varlamov (.899) first in New York's net; Ilya Sorokin is at .934.
The New York Islanders (5-3-2) visit the Dallas Stars (6-3-1) at American Airlines Center on Sunday, Oct. 25 at 6 p.m. ET (Prime Video, MSGSN). Dallas is -196 to -200 on the moneyline and the total sits at 5.5. The tension: the Stars allow a league-low 1.60 goals per game, while the Islanders arrive without Mathew Barzal and three other regulars. Our pick: Stars moneyline (-200).
How these teams got here
Dallas has won four straight: a shootout win at Colorado on Oct. 14, a 4-0 shutout at Chicago, then back-to-back 3-2 overtime wins at home over Boston and Winnipeg. The Stars have three shutouts in 10 games and have held eight of their 10 opponents to two goals or fewer.
The weakness is at the other end. Dallas scores just 2.50 goals per game, and its power play is converting at 16.0%. Three of the four wins in the streak were one-goal games decided after regulation.
New York is a solid 5-3-2 with 2.90 goals for and 2.20 against per game, the third-stingiest mark in the league. The Islanders beat Toronto 4-1 and Anaheim 3-2 before a 3-2 overtime loss to Los Angeles at home on Thursday. Sunday opens a three-game western swing that continues in Nashville (Oct. 27) and Minnesota (Oct. 29).
Both teams last played Thursday, so rest is even.
The crease decides it
Jake Oettinger has been the best goalie in this matchup by a distance: 5-2-1, 1.23 GAA, .939 save percentage in eight starts. He plays behind a defense that allows only 22.0 shots per game, against New York's 25.5.
NHL.com's projected lineup lists Semyon Varlamov first in the Islanders' net. He is 0-1-2 with a 2.25 GAA and .899 in three starts. Ilya Sorokin has carried the load at 5-2-0, 1.72 GAA, .934. If Varlamov starts, Dallas gets a clear edge in goal. If Sorokin goes, the gap narrows sharply, so watch the morning confirmation.
Up front, Mikko Rantanen leads Dallas with 13 points (5 goals, 8 assists), Jason Robertson has 11 and Roope Hintz has five goals. For New York, Bo Horvat has 10 points (5-5) and rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer has nine, eight of them assists.
Special teams lean slightly to the Islanders on the power play (20.0% vs 16.0%). Both penalty kills are elite: Dallas is at 91.7% (3rd) and New York at 88.2% (4th). Expect few clean chances with the man advantage.
Who's missing
The Islanders' absences run deeper. Barzal (knee) didn't travel on the trip. Matias Maccelli (lower body, 6 points) is on a two-to-four-week timeline, and Calum Ritchie (lower body) is out four to six weeks. Defenseman Alexander Romanov is out with a torn ACL. That pushes Kyle MacLean and emergency recall Mitchell Chaffee onto the fourth line and thins a middle six that was already short of scoring.
Dallas is banged up too. Sam Steel is out after a treatment injection, defenseman Esa Lindell (lower body) has been out since Oct. 17, and Matt Duchene and Oskar Bäck are on injured reserve. Radek Faksa is questionable, and David Perron could make his Stars debut. The difference is that the Stars' top six is intact: Robertson, Hintz and Tyler Seguin on one line, Wyatt Johnston and Rantanen on another, with Thomas Harley and Miro Heiskanen as the top pair.
Prediction: Stars moneyline
Stars moneyline (-200). The reasons:
- The price. The model gives Dallas 73%; the -196 to -200 range implies about 67%.
- Defense. Dallas allows 1.60 goals and 22.0 shots per game, both the best in this matchup by a wide margin.
- Goaltending. Oettinger's .939 is well ahead of Varlamov's .899 if the projection holds.
- Depth. New York is missing three forwards from its usual top nine plus its best physical defenseman.
- Form. Dallas has won four in a row, three by one goal.
The risk: Dallas's offense. At 2.50 goals per game, and with three of its last four wins coming in overtime or a shootout, this is why we skip the puck line (-1.5 at +125 to +138) and take the straight win.
The total: two top-three defenses and an under juiced to -115 to -122 point the same way, but it's a lean, not a play.
