Analysis
Predators vs Avalanche Prediction, Picks & Odds (October 25, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Avalanche moneyline (-233), medium confidence. The model has Colorado at 79% vs. about 70% implied by the market.
- Colorado scores 4.27 goals per game (2nd in the NHL); Nashville scores 2.50 (tied for 26th).
- Nashville is on a back-to-back after a 3-2 OT loss in Pittsburgh, with Justus Annunen (.806 in one start) expected in goal.
- Nashville's edge is special teams: a 27.6% power play (5th) and an 83.9% penalty kill (6th).
The Colorado Avalanche (6-4-1) visit the Nashville Predators (3-3-4) at Bridgestone Arena on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET (Altitude, Scripps Sports). Colorado is -233 to -238 on the moneyline with the total at 6.5. The hook: Nashville is on the second night of a back-to-back with Justus Annunen expected in goal, against the NHL's No. 2 offense. Pick: Avalanche moneyline (-233), medium confidence.
How these teams got here
Colorado comes in rested and rolling. The Avs beat Tampa Bay 6-3 at home on Friday, with Nathan MacKinnon posting a goal and three assists, and they had Saturday off. They score 4.27 goals per game, second in the league, and put 30.0 shots on net per night while allowing 27.9.
The one soft spot is the road: Colorado is 2-3-0 away from Ball Arena and 4-1-1 at home. Losses at Philadelphia and New Jersey last week are the reason the price isn't even steeper.
Nashville is grinding. The Predators lost 3-2 in overtime at Pittsburgh on Saturday night after a tying goal with 1:06 left in regulation. They were blanked 6-0 in Boston on Thursday and have lost five of six (1-2-3). The underlying issue is offense: 2.50 goals per game (tied for 26th) and only 24.9 shots per game, while giving up 30.1.
Sunday opens a five-game homestand for Nashville, but it starts on tired legs, a few hours after a flight home from Pittsburgh.
Colorado's top line vs. a backup in net
This game turns on Colorado's firepower against Nashville's crease. MacKinnon leads the Avs with 20 points (7 goals, 13 assists) in 11 games. Artturi Lehkonen has a team-high nine goals and a six-game point streak, Martin Necas has 14 points, and Cale Makar has 11 points in 10 games from the blue line.
Juuse Saros made 34 saves on Saturday, so the expected starter is Annunen. His only start this season was the 6-0 loss in Boston: 6.00 GAA and .806 save percentage. That is a small sample, but it is the sample Nashville carries into a game against one of the league's most dangerous attacks.
Colorado hasn't confirmed its goalie. Mackenzie Blackwood (5-3-0, 2.91 GAA, .893) is expected per the pregame previews, with Scott Wedgewood (1-1-1, 2.65, .912) the alternative. Neither number is elite, which is part of why Nashville has a puncher's chance.
Nashville's best path is special teams. The Preds' power play runs at 27.6% (5th) and their penalty kill at 83.9% (6th), both better than Colorado's 20.0% (19th) and 82.8% (9th). Steven Stamkos leads them with five goals and 11 points, with Roman Josi (9 points) and Ryan O'Reilly and Filip Forsberg (8 each) behind him. If the Avs take penalties, this gets closer.
Who's missing
Colorado is thin down the middle. Nicolas Roy (C) is out with a lower-body injury and is targeted for Oct. 28, and Matt Duchene (C) is on injured reserve after core surgery. Zachary L'Heureux (LW) is also on IR. That puts more minutes on MacKinnon, Brock Nelson and Nazem Kadri, which isn't a bad fallback.
Nashville's notable absence is defenseman William Trudeau (IR). The bigger lineup factor for the Preds isn't an injury; it's Saros sitting after a 34-save night.
Prediction: Avalanche moneyline
Pick: Avalanche moneyline (-233), medium confidence. The model gives Colorado a 79% win probability, against roughly 70% implied by the licensed moneyline (about 67% with the vig removed). Our read agrees:
- Offense gap: Colorado scores 4.27 goals per game to Nashville's 2.50, a difference of 1.77 goals a night.
- Shot share: the Avs outshoot opponents by about two per game; the Preds get outshot by about five.
- Schedule: Colorado had Saturday off; Nashville played an overtime game in Pittsburgh on Saturday night.
- Goaltending: Annunen's .806 in his lone start vs. a Colorado pair at .893 and .912.
- Form: Nashville has one win in its last six.
The risk: Nashville's top-five power play against a Colorado team that has been shaky on the road. If the Preds score first on the man advantage, the price looks a lot worse.
On the total: Colorado's games have averaged about 7.4 goals and Nashville's about 5.8, so 6.5 sits right between them. Annunen in net nudges it toward the over, but not enough to play.
