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Analysis
Minnesota Wild vs Philadelphia Flyers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 3, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Wild moneyline (-175). The model gives Minnesota 70%; licensed prices of -172 to -185 imply about 63% to 65%.
- Goal differential: Minnesota +16, Philadelphia -19, with the Flyers 32nd in scoring at 2.19 goals per game.
- Shots: Wild 30.8 for and 25.3 against per game; Flyers 23.3 for and 29.8 against.
- Projected goalies: Jesper Wallstedt (.920) vs Joseph Woll (.899).
The Minnesota Wild (10-3-3) visit the Philadelphia Flyers (4-8-4) on Tuesday, Nov. 3 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena, on NBC Sports Philadelphia and Wild+. Minnesota is priced from -172 to -185 on the moneyline, with the total at 5.5. The Central leaders carry a +16 goal differential into a building whose team owns the league's lowest-scoring offense. Our pick: Wild moneyline (-175).
How these teams got here
Minnesota sits first in the Central with 23 points, third in the whole league. The Wild are 6-3-2 on the road and 6-2-2 over their last 10. They beat Seattle (5-1), Vancouver (4-2) and Utah (3-1) on the western swing, dropped a 4-3 overtime decision to the Islanders at home on Oct. 29, then went into Washington on Sunday and won 5-1, with Jesper Wallstedt stopping 26 of 27.
Philadelphia is last in the Metropolitan with 12 points from 16 games. The Flyers are 3-3-3 at home and have scored just 35 goals while allowing 54, a -19 differential. Sunday's 6-3 win over Utah broke a three-game skid (5-4 to Anaheim, 4-3 in overtime to Columbus, 5-2 at Washington).
Both teams last played Sunday afternoon, so neither side has a rest edge.
Wallstedt vs a shot-starved Flyers attack
This game tilts on volume. Minnesota fires 30.8 shots per game (3rd in the NHL) and allows 25.3 (8th). Philadelphia takes just 23.3 (30th) and gives up 29.8 (27th). That is a seven-shot gap at both ends of the ice before anyone even looks at the goalies.
And the goalies widen it. Daily Faceoff projects Wallstedt (unconfirmed this morning) for the Wild: 9-2-3, 2.06 GAA, .920 save percentage in 14 starts. With Filip Gustavsson on long-term injured reserve, he has carried the crease. The Flyers are projected to go back to Joseph Woll (1-5-2, 3.13, .899) after Dan Vladar (3-3-2, 3.23, .885) started Sunday. Neither Philadelphia option has been above .900 this season.
The finishing talent sits on one side, too. Kirill Kaprizov has 15 goals and 25 points in 16 games, and Quinn Hughes has 21 points from the back end. They drive a power play converting at 26.8% (8th). Philadelphia's runs at 15.7% (27th), though Matvei Michkov has been dangerous with 10 goals, five of them on the man advantage. Trevor Zegras leads the Flyers with 13 points.
Minnesota's blue line is the worry
The case against the Wild is health. Two of their defensemen, Jared Spurgeon and Brock Faber, are on injured reserve. Faber has cleared return-to-play protocol but is only expected to resume skating within a few days (per The Athletic's Michael Russo). Both Marcus Foligno and Nick Foligno are also on IR, which thins the forward group, and Calvin Pickard (.833 in two starts) is the only backup behind Wallstedt.
That puts more minutes on Hughes and the remaining pairs, and it's the main reason a game like this can turn into a 60-minute grind rather than a cruise. Still, the Wild won 5-1 in Washington on Sunday with this group.
Philadelphia is missing defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen (hand, IR) and winger Nikita Grebenkin (back surgery, out at least four months). A Flyers blue line without Ristolainen has to absorb the league's third-highest shot volume.
Prediction: Wild moneyline (-175)
Wild moneyline (-175). The reasons:
- The model gives Minnesota a 70% win probability. The licensed prices of -172 to -185 imply roughly 63% to 65%, so the model sits clearly above the market.
- Goal differential: +16 vs -19. These are two of the most separated teams in the league on the season.
- The shot gap. 30.8 for and 25.3 against for Minnesota, against 23.3 for and 29.8 against for Philadelphia, the 32nd-ranked offense at 2.19 goals per game.
- The crease. Wallstedt's .920 against a Flyers tandem that hasn't cracked .900.
- Special teams. A 26.8% power play against a 15.7% one.
The risk: a depleted Minnesota defense and a Flyers team that just put six on Utah. If Woll steals one, the Wild's thin back end could get exposed late.
The total: 5.5, with the over priced from -120 to -135. Minnesota's games average 5.5 total goals and Philadelphia's 5.6, so there's no play on the number.
