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Analysis
Edmonton Oilers vs Carolina Hurricanes Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 22)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model leans Edmonton at 55% with low confidence, and licensed books have Carolina only -115 to -125.
- Edmonton leads the NHL at 4.56 goals per game with a 31.0% power play (2nd).
- Carolina allows 22.4 shots per game (2nd) and kills 89.2% of penalties (3rd).
- Both starters are unconfirmed: Devon Levi (.898) for Edmonton, Brandon Bussi (.882) for Carolina.
The Carolina Hurricanes (8-2-1) visit the Edmonton Oilers (7-1-1) on Thursday at 9:00 PM ET at Rogers Place, on Hurricanes Hockey Network in Carolina and Sportsnet West and TVA Sports in Canada. Licensed books price Carolina between -115 and -125, Edmonton between -103 and +105, with the total at 6.5. It is the NHL's highest-scoring team against one of its stingiest, and the price is close to a coin flip. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Edmonton leads the league at 4.56 goals per game and has won two straight: 6-2 at Utah on Saturday and 4-3 in overtime over Minnesota on Tuesday, after a 4-2 home loss to Utah on Oct. 15. The catch is the other end. The Oilers allow 3.00 goals per game, and their team save percentage sits at .887.
Carolina, the reigning Stanley Cup champion, dropped its first two games and then won seven straight. This western trip has gone 2-1 so far: 3-2 at Winnipeg, 2-3 at Calgary and 6-3 at Vancouver on Tuesday. The Hurricanes score 3.82 a game, allow 2.45, and control the puck like few teams can: 34.1 shots for per game, second in the NHL, and 22.4 against, also second.
Both teams last played Tuesday, so there is no rest edge either way.
McDavid and the Oilers' power play vs Carolina's wall
Connor McDavid has 26 points in nine games, 20 of them assists, and 14 points in his last five. Leon Draisaitl leads the team with 8 goals, five of them in the last five games. That pair drives a power play converting 31.0%, second in the league.
Carolina is built to take that away. Its penalty kill runs at 89.2%, third in the NHL, and few teams give up fewer shots. Sebastian Aho leads the Hurricanes with 14 points, and Andrei Svechnikov has five points in his last five games. Flip it around and Edmonton has a problem: its penalty kill is at 74.1%, which gives Carolina's 22.7% power play room to work. Edmonton also lives on efficiency, averaging just 25.2 shots a game.
The crease is unsettled. Daily Faceoff lists both starters as unconfirmed: Devon Levi for Edmonton (5-1-0, 2.83 GAA, .898 SV%) and Brandon Bussi for Carolina (2-2-1, 2.98 GAA, .882). Pyotr Kochetkov, Carolina's best goalie so far at 6-0-0 with a 1.98 GAA and .899, started Tuesday in Vancouver. Tristan Jarry (2-0-1, 2.97 GAA, .873) is Edmonton's other option. Neither projected starter is above .900.
Lineup news: Nugent-Hopkins back, Carolina thin up the middle
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is expected back from a lower-body injury. Head coach Mike Babcock said after Tuesday's win that he will return "next game," and he practiced at second-line center. That helps a forward group without Jason Dickinson, with Mattias Janmark and Matt Savoie on injured reserve. Frederik Andersen (knee) is also on IR, which is why Levi and Jarry have split the net.
Carolina is shorter-handed. Captain Jordan Staal (calf tear, out a month or two), Taylor Hall (upper body, week-to-week) and Mark Jankowski (lower body) are all out, and Seth Jarvis is still working back from offseason shoulder surgery. That has pushed Jordan Martinook into the middle of the third line and stretched a center group that also has to handle McDavid and Draisaitl.
Prediction: no edge
Our model leans Edmonton at 55%, a few points above what the licensed moneylines imply, but with low confidence. That is not enough to headline a side, and the matchup splits cleanly:
- Edmonton has the best unit on the ice: 4.56 goals per game and a 31.0% power play.
- Carolina's shot share (34.1 for, 22.4 against) and 89.2% penalty kill attack exactly that strength.
- Edmonton's 74.1% penalty kill is the weakest special-teams unit in the game.
- Goaltending is unconfirmed on both sides, and neither projected starter is above .900.
The swing factor is the Carolina net: a second straight Kochetkov start would tilt the goaltending toward the Hurricanes. On the total, Edmonton's games are averaging 7.56 combined goals and Carolina's 6.27. With 6.5 sitting between them and the juice already on the over, we pass there too.
