Analysis
Dallas Stars vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 29, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Dallas 61%, and the -161 to -169 moneyline already implies about 62-63%.
- Goalie gap: Oettinger is at .929 with three shutouts; Montreal starts Jakub Dobes (.847, 4.47 GAA) instead of the hot Jacob Fowler.
- Dallas allows an NHL-low 2.00 goals per game but scores just 2.67 (25th).
- Montreal is 3-0 since Nick Suzuki's injury, with Fowler stopping 99 of 101 shots.
The Dallas Stars (7-4-1) host the Montreal Canadiens (7-3-2) Thursday at 8 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center (Prime Video; TSN2 and RDS in Canada). Dallas is a -161 to -169 moneyline favorite, Montreal +135 to +140. The tension: the Canadiens just swept a three-game road swing without Nick Suzuki, but Jakub Dobes (.847 save percentage) gets the net against Jake Oettinger. SportsHub's call: no edge. Our model's 61% for Dallas sits right on the market's price.
How these teams got here
Dallas is 7-2-1 in its last 10, and had won three straight at home (overtime wins over Boston and Winnipeg, then a 6-3 win over the Islanders) before New Jersey handed the Stars a 5-1 loss at home on Tuesday. Casey DeSmith started that one and stopped 22 of 27.
The profile is clear. Dallas allows 2.00 goals per game, the fewest in the NHL, and gives up just 22.2 shots a night (second). The problem is the other end: 2.67 goals per game ranks 25th, and the Stars have scored one goal or fewer in four of their 12 games.
Montreal arrives hot. The Canadiens won 4-1 at Chicago, 2-1 at Winnipeg and 2-0 at St. Louis, all after Suzuki went down on Oct. 22 with an upper-body injury (out 2-4 weeks). Jacob Fowler stopped 99 of 101 shots across those three wins, including all 46 in Tuesday's shutout. Thursday closes the four-game trip, and Montreal is 4-1-1 on the road. Both teams played Tuesday and had Wednesday off, so rest is even.
Oettinger vs. Dobes: the gap in goal
This is where the game tilts. Oettinger is 6-2-1 with a 1.43 GAA, a .929 save percentage and three shutouts in nine starts; Daily Faceoff lists him as Dallas' expected starter, not yet confirmed. Montreal is going to Dobes, confirmed per Daily Faceoff, instead of the hot Fowler (6-1-0, .942). Dobes is 1-2-2 with a 4.47 GAA and .847 save percentage, and he has started once in two weeks: 26 saves on 30 shots in an overtime loss to San Jose on Oct. 20.
Special teams lean the same way. Dallas kills 92.9% of penalties (second in the NHL), and Montreal's power play converts just 11.4% (29th). The Stars also win 56.1% of faceoffs, best in the league. Montreal's 28.2 shots allowed per game (20th) should give Mikko Rantanen (6 goals, 14 points) and Jason Robertson (13 points) more looks than they usually get.
The Canadiens' answer is volume and Lane Hutson. Hutson has 10 points from the blue line, Cole Caufield leads the team with six goals and Zachary Bolduc has five, two on the power play.
Who's missing, and why it matters
Montreal's injury list explains the goalie decision. Sam Montembeault (lower body) and rookie Ivan Demidov (lower body) are on injured reserve, and Suzuki, who had 12 points in nine games, is out. Losing the No. 1 center hasn't sunk them yet, but those three wins came with Fowler posting a .980 save percentage. That's not a repeatable cushion, and Dobes won't provide it on numbers alone.
Dallas is thin down the middle. Matt Duchene (abdomen) and Oskar Back (finger) are on injured reserve, and Radek Faksa (lower body) is out. Defenseman Esa Lindell is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, and Kyle Capobianco is out, which stretches a blue line that has still been the league's stingiest.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on Stars vs. Canadiens. The case for Dallas is real, but the moneyline already prices it:
- The price is right. Our model makes Dallas a 61% winner; the licensed moneyline implies about 62-63%.
- Goaltending favors Dallas. Oettinger's .929 against Dobes' .847 is the biggest gap on the ice.
- Special teams favor Dallas. A 92.9% penalty kill against an 11.4% power play takes away Montreal's easiest path.
- But Dallas can't finish. The Stars rank 25th in scoring at 2.67 goals per game, which keeps a road underdog with a 4-1-1 road record in reach.
The swing factor is Dobes' first period. If he settles in, +135 to +140 is live; if he looks like his season numbers, Dallas' puck line at -1.5 (+142 to +160) comes into play.
On the total, books are split between 5.5 (over -135 to -143), 6 (around -110) and 6.5 (under -135 to -141). Dallas' defense points under, Dobes points over, and we're passing there too.
