Avalanche vs Stars Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 13)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker ·
Last updated: October 13, 2026 | Odds checked: October 13, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
The Colorado Avalanche (3-2-0) visit the Dallas Stars (2-2-1) Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET at American Airlines Center, live on ESPN. Dallas is a -114 to -125 moneyline favorite after the news that Cale Makar will miss the game for the birth of his twins. It's the league's top offense (5.2 goals per game) against its stingiest defense (1.40 allowed). Our pick: no edge — our model makes this a near coin flip.
Avalanche vs Stars Odds
| Market | Price range |
|---|---|
| Avalanche moneyline | -105 to +105 |
| Stars moneyline | -114 to -125 |
| Avalanche +1.5 | -250 to -278 |
| Stars -1.5 | +198 to +220 |
| Over 5.5 | -125 to -130 |
| Under 5.5 | +104 to +110 |
A couple of books deal a total of 6 instead (over -105/-106, under -115/-118). At -114 to -125, the Stars carry an implied win probability of 53.3% to 55.6%.
The market moved hard today. Earlier Tuesday, Colorado was the -1.5 side on the puck line (+200 to +220) and three books had the total at 6.5. Now Dallas is the puck-line favorite and most books sit at 5.5. The move lines up with the Makar news.
Avalanche: The NHL's Best Offense, Minus Its Best Defenseman
Colorado leads the league at 5.2 goals per game and 32.4 shots per game, per NHL.com. Nathan MacKinnon has 10 points (5 goals, 5 assists) in five games.
The catch is the back end. The Avs allow 3.4 goals per game (21st), and Mackenzie Blackwood — confirmed as tonight's starter — is 2-2-0 with a .867 save percentage and 3.29 GAA.
Makar has seven points (3 goals, 4 assists) in five games, per Daily Faceoff. Without him, Noah Juulsen draws in and Devon Toews takes over the top power-play unit, per Colorado Hockey Now.
Last game: a 6-3 home loss to Toronto on Saturday, after a 7-3 win at Calgary two nights earlier.
Stars: Oettinger Is Shutting the Door
Dallas allows a league-low 1.40 goals per game and 22 shots per game (3rd). Jake Oettinger, confirmed to start, is 2-1-1 with a .963 save percentage, 0.74 GAA and two shutouts.
The problem is scoring. The Stars average 2.2 goals per game (26th) and their power play is 7.7% (28th). Mikko Rantanen leads them with six points, and Jason Robertson has two goals.
Last game: a 2-1 shootout loss at Pittsburgh on Saturday. Before that, Oettinger posted back-to-back shutouts: 5-0 vs San Jose and 4-0 at Buffalo.
Key Matchup: Avalanche Shooters vs Oettinger
| Stat | Avalanche | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for/game | 5.2 (1st) | 2.2 (26th) |
| Goals against/game | 3.4 (21st) | 1.40 (1st) |
| Power play | 22.2% (12th) | 7.7% (28th) |
| Penalty kill | 85.7% (12th) | 88.2% (9th) |
| Faceoffs | 51.4% (12th) | 54.6% (2nd) |
Something gives. Colorado converts on 16% of its shots and Oettinger is stopping 96.3%. Losing Makar takes a big piece out of the Avs' transition and power play, but Dallas still has to find goals against a .867 goalie.
Injury Report
| Team | Player | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| COL | Cale Makar | D | Out (birth of twins) |
| COL | Logan O'Connor | RW | Out |
| COL | Georgii Merkulov | C | IR |
| DAL | Matt Duchene | C | IR (about 3 months) |
| DAL | Joel Kiviranta | LW | Out (lower body) |
Dallas also has Cameron Hughes (C) and Luke Krys (D) on injured reserve. Kiviranta is likely back Wednesday, per Colorado Hockey Now.
Hottest NHL Handicappers on SportsHub
The top three NHL handicappers by net profit over the last 15 days (Sep 29–Oct 13):
| Handicapper | Record | Win % | Net ($) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keylor Santos | 22-8 | 73.3% | +$1,301 | 35.6% |
| Freudy Hockey | 21-8 | 72.4% | +$1,115 | 33.2% |
| Randall Dickelman | 40-31 | 56.3% | +$730 | 8.1% |
See the full board on our handicapper leaderboard.
Avalanche vs Stars Prediction
Our pick: no edge. Our model gives Colorado a 52% chance to win with very low confidence, while the market prices Dallas at 53% to 56%. That's not a gap worth betting.
- Goaltending favors Dallas: Oettinger's .963 against Blackwood's .867.
- Firepower favors Colorado: 5.2 goals per game against Dallas' 2.2.
- Makar's absence is already priced in: the puck line flipped and the total dropped a full goal today.
- Special teams lean Colorado: 22.2% on the power play against Dallas' 7.7%.
The risk on either side: MacKinnon can swing any game, and so can a goalie stopping 96% of shots. This is also the first half of a home-and-home, with the rematch in Denver on Wednesday.
Projected score: Avalanche 3, Stars 2 (OT) — a one-goal game we'd rather watch than bet.
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