Penguins vs Blackhawks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 13)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker ·
Last updated: October 13, 2026 | Odds checked: October 13, 2026, 3:37 PM ET
The Pittsburgh Penguins (3-2-1) visit the Chicago Blackhawks (1-5-0) tonight at 8:00 PM ET at the United Center (CHSN, SportsNet Pittsburgh, ESPN+). Pittsburgh is a -152 to -164 road favorite, and the gap is real: Chicago has been outscored 26-12 and is without suspended Frank Nazar. Our model gives the Penguins 74%, well above the roughly 62% the price implies. Our pick: Penguins moneyline (-164), medium confidence.
Penguins vs Blackhawks Odds
| Market | Penguins | Blackhawks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -152 to -164 | +126 to +137 |
| Puck line | -1.5 (+145 to +160) | +1.5 (-175 to -200) |
| Total 6.5 | Over -105 to -114 | Under -110 to -115 |
At -164, Pittsburgh's moneyline implies 62.1%. The total was 6 at some books on Monday and has moved up to 6.5.
Penguins: Scoring Depth, Elite Kill
Pittsburgh scores 3.5 goals per game (8th) and puts 28.7 shots a night on goal (9th). It opened with a 7-0 rout of Philadelphia and a 6-5 overtime win over Montreal, then went 1-2-1 in a tighter stretch before beating Dallas 2-1 in a shootout on Saturday.
Evgeni Malkin and Tommy Novak have 3 goals and 5 points each. Erik Karlsson has 5 assists, and Samuel Girard also has 5 points.
The penalty kill is the standout: 94.1% (T-2nd), and the Penguins take the fewest penalty minutes in the league (6.7 per game).
In goal, Daily Faceoff projects Sergei Murashov (unconfirmed): 0-1-1, 2.45 GAA, .939 SV% in two appearances. Arturs Silovs is 3-1-0 with a .885 SV%.
Blackhawks: Struggling at Both Ends
Chicago is 1-5-0, scoring 2.0 goals per game (T-28th) and allowing 4.33 (30th). The only win was 4-2 over St. Louis on Oct. 6. Since then: a 4-1 loss to the Islanders and a 5-2 loss to Carolina on Saturday.
The shot volume is the problem: 21 shots on goal per game, 31st in the league, while allowing 30.3. Rookie Anton Frondell leads the team with 4 points, and Nazar (3 points) sits tonight.
Spencer Knight is the projected starter (unconfirmed): 1-3-0, 3.80 GAA, .885 SV%. Backup Arvid Söderblom is at .820.
Key Matchup: Special Teams
| Stat | Penguins | Blackhawks |
|---|---|---|
| Power play | 20.0% (T-16th) | 7.1% (29th) |
| Penalty kill | 94.1% (T-2nd) | 68.7% (27th) |
| Shots/game | 28.7 (9th) | 21.0 (31st) |
| Goals against/game | 2.67 (14th) | 4.33 (30th) |
This is the widest gap on the board. Chicago's 7.1% power play runs into a 94.1% kill, while Pittsburgh's average power play gets a 68.7% penalty kill. Neither team wins the dot: both rank in the bottom three in faceoffs.
The last meeting was a 6-2 Pittsburgh win on Jan. 29, 2026.
Injury Report
| Team | Player | Pos | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Frank Nazar | C | Suspended |
| CHI | Andrew Mangiapane | LW | IR |
| PIT | Trevor van Riemsdyk | D | IR |
| PIT | Ryan Graves | D | IR |
| PIT | Justin Brazeau | RW | IR |
Nazar is serving the second game of a two-game suspension for an illegal check to the head of Islanders captain Bo Horvat.
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Penguins vs Blackhawks Prediction
Our pick: Penguins moneyline (-164), medium confidence. Our model makes Pittsburgh a 74% winner, about 12 points above the market's 62.1%.
- Scoring gap: Pittsburgh scores 3.5 per game; Chicago allows 4.33, 30th in the league.
- Special teams: a 94.1% Penguins kill against a 7.1% Blackhawks power play.
- Shot volume: 28.7 shots a game for Pittsburgh against Chicago's 21.0, 31st.
- Lineup: Chicago is without Nazar, one of only two Hawks with 3+ points.
- Rest: neither team has played since Saturday, so there's no schedule excuse for Chicago.
The risk: Pittsburgh's goaltending has been ordinary (Silovs .885), and a hot Knight night keeps Chicago in it. We passed on the puck line (+145 to +160) because a one-goal or empty-net-dependent win is a live outcome. Predicted score: Penguins 4, Blackhawks 2.
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