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Analysis
Calgary Flames vs Minnesota Wild Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 22, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Wild moneyline at -204, medium confidence. The model gives Minnesota 78%; licensed books imply about 67%.
- Goaltending gap: Jesper Wallstedt is at .915 and 2.20 GAA; Calgary's Dustin Wolf (.834) and Devin Cooley (.868) have both struggled.
- Calgary is allowing 4.63 goals per game with a -20 goal differential through eight games.
- Minnesota is without defensemen Faber, Spurgeon and Maatta, and half its games were one-goal games, so the moneyline beats the puck line.
The Minnesota Wild (6-2-2) visit the Calgary Flames (2-6-0) at 9:00 PM ET Thursday at Scotiabank Saddledome (ESPN+, Wild+, SN1). Licensed books have Minnesota at -204 to -208, with the total at 5.5 or 6. The tension: Calgary allows 4.63 goals per game and Minnesota has the better goalie, but the Wild play their second game in three nights on a depleted blue line. Our pick: Wild moneyline (-204), medium confidence.
How these teams got here
Minnesota has 14 points through 10 games, scoring 3.1 goals per game and allowing 2.5. The Wild beat Columbus 2-1 on Sunday, then dropped a 4-3 overtime decision in Edmonton on Tuesday. That leaves one day of rest. They are 2-2-2 on the road, so the travel record isn't spotless.
Calgary is the opposite story. Eight games, 17 goals for, 37 against, a -20 differential. The losses haven't been close: 6-1 twice to Seattle, 7-3 to Colorado, 6-2 in Vegas. The two wins came 4-2 at Anaheim and 3-2 over Carolina on Sunday, and the Flames are 1-3-0 at home. Coach Ryan Huska has pointed to the quality chances his team gives up off the rush (per KNBR). Calgary has had three days off to work on it.
The crease decides it
Jesper Wallstedt has carried Minnesota: 6-1-2, 2.20 GAA, .915 save percentage in nine starts. Filip Gustavsson is on injured reserve as he recovers from hip surgery, and coach John Hynes said "I don't think less than a month" (per The Hockey News). That makes Wallstedt the projected starter; Calvin Pickard (.800 in one start) is the backup.
Calgary hasn't named a starter, and neither option inspires much. Dustin Wolf is 1-4-0 with a 4.85 GAA and .834 save percentage; Devin Cooley is 1-2-0 with a 4.01 GAA and .868. Either way, Minnesota has an edge of 50 to 80 points of save percentage in net. That is the single biggest number in this game.
Up front, Kirill Kaprizov has 11 goals and 17 points in 10 games, and Quinn Hughes has 11 assists from the back end. Matt Boldy (9 points) and Joel Eriksson Ek (7) round out a top group that Hynes has praised for caring about checking and defending. Calgary's leaders, Morgan Frost, Matt Coronato and Joel Farabee, have 5 points each.
Special teams tilt the same way. Minnesota's power play runs at 29.0% against Calgary's 21.1%, while the penalty kills are nearly identical (81.8% vs 81.5%, per StatMuse). Give Kaprizov a few power plays against a goalie stopping .834 and the math gets ugly for Calgary.
Minnesota's thin blue line is the catch
The Wild are missing three regular defensemen: Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon are on injured reserve and Olli Maatta is out. Nick and Marcus Foligno are both on IR too, which strips some of the forward group's grit. That puts a heavy load on Hughes and is the best reason not to expect a blowout.
Calgary's list is shorter but stings. Jonathan Huberdeau (hip) and Samuel Honzek are on IR, and captain Mikael Backlund is day-to-day with an upper-body injury after missing practice. If Backlund can't go, Ben Jones could make his Flames debut (per KNBR).
Prediction: Wild moneyline
Wild moneyline (-204), medium confidence.
- The model beats the market. It gives Minnesota 78%, against roughly 67% implied by -204 to -208.
- Goaltending. Wallstedt's .915 against .834 or .868 on the other side.
- Calgary's defense. 4.63 goals allowed per game and a -20 differential in eight games.
- Firepower. Kaprizov's 11 goals and a 29.0% power play against a team that has struggled to defend the rush.
Why not the puck line at +115 to +130? Five of Minnesota's 10 games have been decided by one goal, and a short-handed defense isn't built to pull away. The moneyline is the cleaner price.
The risk is the schedule: the Wild are on one day of rest after an overtime game, facing a Calgary team with three days off. A hot night from whoever starts for the Flames would flip it.
On the total, Calgary's games have averaged 6.75 goals and Minnesota's 5.6. With the number split between 5.5 and 6 across books, we have no play there.
