Analysis
Commanders vs Rams Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 9)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model's 67% on the Rams sits below the 69.4% break-even at the best moneyline (-227) and matches the market's roughly 67% without the vig.
- The Rams gain 395.4 yards per game (4th) to Washington's 341.1 (21st), and they convert 42.7% on third down to Washington's 31.9% (31st).
- Washington is +7 in turnovers (tied 2nd) and the Rams are -4 (tied 26th); Jayden Daniels has no interceptions in 145 attempts.
- Myles Garrett returns for L.A. for the first time since Week 1, while Washington is without Terry McLaurin, Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown.
The Rams (4-4) visit the Commanders (2-4-1) Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Northwest Stadium on FOX as 4.5-point favorites, -227 to -233 on the moneyline, with the total at 47.5 to 48. Los Angeles owns the yardage, Washington owns the turnover column, and Myles Garrett is back. SportsHub's call: no edge. The model's 67% on the Rams falls short of the 69.4% break-even at the best price.
How these teams got here
Los Angeles started 2-4 and has won two straight since, 35-21 at Las Vegas and 24-9 over the Chargers. Three of the four losses came by 4 points or fewer, including 37-34 in overtime against Buffalo. The Rams gain 395.4 yards per game (4th) and allow 310.3, and they have done it through what Sean McVay calls more injuries than any year of his tenure, 2022 included.
Washington is harder to pin down. The Commanders rank 21st in yards at 341.1 per game and allow 26.0 points, yet they just beat the Eagles 27-10 on Sunday night behind five sacks of Tanner McKee and four Drew Stevens field goals. They are 2-1-1 at home. The Rams are 2-1 on the road, and this one kicks off at 10 a.m. Pacific.
History favors the visitors lately. Washington's last home win in this series came in 2015, per AP, and the Rams took the last meeting 28-20 on Dec. 17, 2023.
Garrett and Donald meet Jayden Daniels
Garrett was activated from injured reserve ahead of this game and carries no designation. McVay said Friday he expects him to play barring a setback. He has played only Week 1, when he logged five pressures and no sacks, and this would be his first NFL game alongside Aaron Donald, who has no sack yet this season, per AP.
The timing fits the need. Los Angeles ranks third in pressure rate at 41.0%, per NFL.com, but is tied for 26th with just 12 sacks. Byron Young has 4.5 of them.
Washington has allowed 16 sacks, 12 of them on Daniels, per AP. "We're gonna have to be really intentional with our protection plan," offensive coordinator David Blough said. Daniels gives the offense its escape hatch: no interceptions in 145 attempts and 236 rushing yards at 8.7 per carry. The drives still stall, though. Washington converts just 31.9% on third down (31st), against 42.7% for the Rams (8th).
On the other side, Matthew Stafford is second in the NFL with 2,146 passing yards and leads the league with 204 completions, per AP. Kyren Williams has 548 rushing yards on 112 carries. Washington allows 3.9 yards per carry, but it will have to hold that number with a rebuilt interior.
Washington's receivers against L.A.'s secondary
Terry McLaurin is out for the season with a torn patellar tendon, and Treylon Burks (foot) and Dyami Brown (calf) were ruled out Friday. The team says Stefon Diggs (27 catches, 252 yards, 5 TDs) and rookie Antonio Williams (23 catches, 259 yards) are the only receivers playing Sunday who have caught a pass this regular season. The backfield is thin too: Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on injured reserve until at least Week 12 and Jeremy McNichols is done for the year, which leaves Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler.
The front is also short. Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw went on injured reserve this week, and Jer'Zhan Newton, who has not played this season, is questionable after practicing fully all week.
The Rams have their own holes. Jaylen Watson is on injured reserve with a season-ending shoulder injury, and Trent McDuffie (back) and Kam Curl (foot) are questionable. That is where a short Washington receiver group could find room. Davante Adams, Kobie Turner and Poona Ford remain on injured reserve, and Terrance Ferguson is out. Stafford (right elbow) and Daniels both practiced fully and carry no designation.
How the line has moved
The Rams were -6 at licensed books as recently as Nov. 4 and now sit at -4.5, priced -108 to -118. The moneyline has still climbed from -205 at the open to -227 to -233. The total has dropped furthest, from 50.5 at the open to 47.5 to 48.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on Rams vs Commanders. The model has Los Angeles at 67% with a low confidence label, and the numbers explain why we pass:
- Price: -227 needs 69.4% and -233 needs 70.0%. With the vig removed, the market already sits near 67%, the same as the model.
- Yardage: the Rams out-gain Washington by 54.3 yards per game and allow 48.8 fewer, which supports the favorite.
- Turnovers: Washington is +7 with 3 giveaways, tied for 2nd. The Rams are -4 with 12, tied for 26th. That is the road to an upset.
- Injuries: Washington's receiver losses and the Rams' secondary losses both hit where the other team wants to attack.
The swing factor is Garrett's workload in his first game since Week 1. If he and Donald turn pressure into sacks, third downs get even harder for Washington. If Daniels keeps protecting the ball, 4.5 is a lot of points.
On the total, the two offenses average a combined 47.0 points, right at the number. The over has hit in 4 of 8 Rams games and 4 of 7 Washington games, per ClutchPoints, so we have no play there either.
