Analysis
Eagles vs Giants Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 9)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has the Giants at 59%, short of the 61.7% that the best licensed price of -161 requires.
- Joe Milton starts for Philadelphia with only 53 passes over the last two seasons, per AP, and without DeVonta Smith or Dontayvion Wicks.
- The Eagles score 17.1 points per game (30th), while the Giants have scored 27 or more in four straight.
- New York's risks: Cam Skattebo is doubtful, and the Giants have lost 13 straight in Philadelphia.
The New York Giants (4-2-1) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (2-6) on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field on Fox, favored by 3 with a total of 38.5. New York hasn't won here since 2013, but Philadelphia is down to third-string QB Joe Milton. Our model makes the Giants 59% to win, short of the 61.7% the best price requires. No edge: right side, wrong price.
How these teams got here
Philadelphia has lost six straight and has been outscored by 65 points in eight games. The offense ranks 30th in the league at 17.1 points per game and 31st at 284.5 yards per game. Per AP, the Eagles have averaged 244 yards during the skid and haven't topped 341 in any game this season.
The latest loss was 27-10 at Washington, with Tanner McKee sacked five times. McKee went 0-3 as the starter after Jalen Hurts landed on injured reserve with blood clots in his lungs. Nick Sirianni said Monday he was sticking with McKee, then reversed course within days.
New York is the only NFC East team with a winning record. The Giants have scored 27 or more in four straight games, their longest such run since 2010 per AP, and they come in fresh off the bye. John Harbaugh went 15-3 after byes in 18 seasons at Baltimore, per AP. The Eagles played last Sunday night.
Milton vs. a pass defense that doesn't give much
This is the game. Milton has thrown only 53 passes over the last two seasons, per AP, and he saw this defense with Dallas in January, going 7 of 13 for 73 yards and an interception. He got about four days of first-team practice before Sunday, and the Eagles kept Sean Mannion as play-caller.
His help is thin. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are out again, which leaves Makai Lemon and Darius Cooper as the top wideouts. The Eagles rank 27th in net passing at 177.1 yards per game and have allowed 23 sacks. Saquon Barkley has no injury designation after a hamstring and back issue, but he managed just 30 yards on 13 carries at Washington, and the team rushes for only 88.1 a game (27th).
The Giants allow 184.9 net passing yards per game, third in the NFL per AP, and AP has them tied for second with 32 forced three-and-outs. The one soft spot is the pass rush: New York has only 9 sacks, tied for 30th, and Brian Burns is on injured reserve.
On the other side, Malik Nabers is a real problem for a banged-up secondary. He has 48 catches for 605 yards, is chasing a fifth straight 100-yard game per ESPN, and Harbaugh called him a "full go" after he missed Thursday's practice with a knee issue. J.J. McCarthy gets his second start of the season after going 20 of 28 for 252 yards in the overtime win at Houston, a game in which the Giants didn't turn it over. Philadelphia is allowing 375.9 yards per game with only 10 sacks and 4 takeaways, and Jonathan Jones and Michael Carter II are both out at corner.
New York's backfield is the concern
Cam Skattebo is doubtful with a hamstring injury, and he owns 418 of the Giants' rushing yards. No one else on the team has 100. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is on injured reserve and Najee Harris was released, so Devin Singletary is expected to be the lead back, with newcomer Greg Desrosiers Jr. behind him. Singletary's 30-yard overtime run beat Houston, but he was a healthy scratch in Weeks 3 through 5.
That matters because the Giants' plan with a lead should be to run. Philadelphia is allowing 131.9 rushing yards a game, so Singletary has room to work, but a one-dimensional New York offense is how this stays close. Skattebo isn't fully ruled out; Harbaugh said to "keep it open."
How the line has moved
Philadelphia was a 5.5- to 6-point favorite at the earliest prices with a total of 44.5 to 45.5. New York is now -3 at -110 to -120, after touching -3.5, and the total sits at 38.5, the lowest on Sunday's board. The Giants' moneyline runs from -161 to -175 across licensed books. That is a swing of about nine points in the spread, and we read it mostly as the Hurts injury and the state of this roster. Against the spread, AP has New York at 5-2 and Philadelphia at 1-7.
Prediction: no edge at these prices
No edge on this one. The Giants are the better team, and the market already charges for it:
- The price: the model's 59% works out to a fair price near -144. The best licensed price is -161, which needs 61.7%, and -175 needs 63.6%.
- Confidence: the model's label is low, and we only headline a side at medium or better.
- The case for New York: McCarthy threw for 252 yards at Houston, Milton has 53 passes in two seasons, and the Giants had the bye.
- The case against: Skattebo is doubtful, New York's rush has only 9 sacks, and the Giants have lost 13 straight here, including a playoff game.
The swing factor: Milton's arm. He's regarded as having a cannon, per AP, and one or two shots can flip a game with a 38.5 total. If he's careless with the ball, New York's offense should have enough even without Skattebo.
We'd want the Giants closer to -144 before getting involved. On the total, we'd pass too. 38.5 already prices in Milton and the Giants' running backs, and New York's recent scoring pulls the other way.
