Analysis
Dolphins vs Lions Prediction, Picks & Odds (NFL Week 9)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has Detroit at 74%, just under the 74.6% break-even at the best price of -294. Its fair price is about -285.
- Detroit scores 29.0 points a game (3rd in the NFL). Miami scores 16.7 (31st).
- Miami allows an NFL-high 119.5 passer rating and has just 9 sacks. Jared Goff has thrown one interception in seven games.
- Five Lions are out, four of them on defense, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with a rib injury.
The Detroit Lions (5-2) visit the Miami Dolphins (1-6) at 1:00 PM ET Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium on CBS, laying 6.5 points and -294 to -333 on the moneyline. Detroit has the NFL's top yardage offense but is missing five players, four on defense. Our call: no edge. The model has Detroit at 74%, just under the 74.6% break-even at the best price.
How these teams got here
Detroit has won three straight: 45-21 at Arizona, 20-17 over Green Bay and 19-15 over Minnesota. The Lions average 29.0 points (3rd) and 412.0 yards (1st), yet the last two wins came by three and four points, with 20 and 19 points scored. They've also been ordinary on the road at 1-2, and they allow 25.7 points a game.
Miami is 1-6, 0-3 at home and last in the AFC East. The one win was a 28-25 result at the Jets on Oct. 25, and the Dolphins followed it with a 24-19 home loss to New England in which they ran for just 74 yards, per the AP. At 16.7 points a game they rank 31st.
Jeff Hafley's first team isn't folding, though. The AP calls it the youngest roster in the league, and its last three losses came by five, seven and five points. FOX Sports has Miami at 1-16 over its last 17 games against teams with winning records, so competitive hasn't meant winning.
Goff and Gibbs against a defense with no rush
Jared Goff is 168-of-248 for 1,964 yards, 15 touchdowns and one interception, a 110.0 rating. The AP has him with a touchdown pass in 30 straight games. He gets a Miami defense allowing an NFL-high 119.5 passer rating, with only nine sacks, tied for 30th. Opponents are also converting 50.6% on third down against the Dolphins, 31st in the league.
Jahmyr Gibbs is the second problem. He has 773 rushing yards, eight touchdowns and 4.9 yards a carry, and Sports Illustrated had him for 153 yards last week. Miami allows 113.1 rushing yards a game, 16th.
The opening for Miami is through the air. Detroit gives up 276.6 net passing yards a game, last in the NFL. Malik Willis has been uneven (59.0% completions, six touchdowns, five interceptions, a 79.7 rating), but Ollie Gordon II (408 yards, four touchdowns) gives the offense a steady base. Detroit's rush is the counter: 24 sacks, third in the league, and Alim McNeill has a sack in four of his last five games, per the AP.
Five Lions out, and a question at receiver
Linebacker Jack Campbell was carted off with a neck injury against Minnesota and has been hospitalized. He said Wednesday that he has full movement in his lower body and is making progress with his upper body. That matters far more than this game. On the field, Detroit loses its leading tackler (57).
The Lions also ruled out edge DJ Wonnum (team-high five sacks), cornerback D.J. Reed, safety Kerby Joseph and center Cade Mays. Three of those hit a pass defense that's already last, and losing Mays comes after Goff took four first-half sacks against Minnesota, per the AP. Safety Brian Branch practiced fully Thursday and Friday and has no game status.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (53 catches, 571 yards, five touchdowns) is questionable with a rib injury after limited practices all week. He's the one Sunday-morning check that could move this number.
Miami's list is shorter. De'Von Achane is on injured reserve, Jaylen Wright and Kaytron Allen are questionable with quad injuries, and edge Malik Herring is questionable with a neck injury. Rookie guard Kadyn Proctor is back from a concussion. Willis has a groin strain but practiced fully all week and has no status.
How the line has moved
Detroit was laying 8.5 on Nov. 1 and 7 as recently as Friday. It's 6.5 now. The moneyline was around -375 on Nov. 3 and is -294 to -333 today, a shorter price that fits a week in which the injury list grew. The total opened at 47.5, touched 50.5 and sits at 49.5 to 50.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on this one. Detroit is the likelier winner, but the price has already caught up.
- The price: the model's 74% sits just under the 74.6% break-even at -294, and -333 requires 76.9%. Its fair price is about -285, and no licensed book is there.
- For Detroit: 29.0 points a game against 16.7, and Goff's 110.0 rating against a defense allowing 119.5.
- Against Detroit: five players out, four on a defense giving up 25.7 points a game, with the pass defense already last at 276.6 net yards.
- The 6.5 points: Detroit's last two wins came by four or fewer and it's 3-4 against the spread per the AP, while Miami's last three losses were by seven or fewer. The model gives a win number, not a cover number, so we won't force a spread position.
The swing factor is St. Brown. If he sits and Willis finds room against a short-handed secondary, this stays close late. If he plays, Detroit's offense has the clear advantage on paper.
On the total of 49.5 to 50, we'd pass too. Both defenses allow about 26 points a game, and the over is 5-2 in Detroit's games per Sports Illustrated, but Miami's 16.7 points a game makes that number a stretch to chase.
