Analysis
Titans vs Jaguars Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 10)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has Jacksonville around 84%, and the best licensed moneyline (-588) already implies 85.5%.
- Jacksonville is -10.5 everywhere (one book at -11), up from -8.5 before its 33-10 win at Baltimore.
- The Jaguars allow 15.1 points per game (2nd) and are +9 in turnovers; the Titans are -1 and score 18 per game.
- Tennessee is without WR Carnell Tate and LB Anthony Hill Jr.; Jacksonville sits deadline adds Jessie Bates III and Jordan Davis.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) visit the Tennessee Titans (1-7) on Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium, on Fox. Jacksonville is a 10.5-point favorite at licensed books (-588 to -714 on the moneyline), with the total at 46 to 46.5. The tension: Tennessee is rested off its bye, but it just traded away its two best defenders and will play without its top receiver. Our call: no edge. The model's Jaguars number matches the market's.
How these teams got here
Jacksonville has won two straight and five of its last six, capped by a 33-10 rout at Baltimore on Thursday, Nov. 5, a week after a 42-7 dismantling of Indianapolis. The Jaguars score 28.6 points per game (fourth in the NFL, per the AP) and allow 15.1 (second), a +108 point differential through eight games. Their only losses: 20-13 at Denver and 34-31 to Houston in London. Per the AP, they hold a three-game lead in the AFC South, and they've had 10 days to recover since that Thursday game.
Tennessee is 0-4 at home, and its lone win came 26-20 at Indianapolis. First-year coach Robert Saleh's team averages 18 points (28th) and allows 24.9. The offense has finally found a pulse, though: three straight games with at least 24 points, including a 43-36 overtime loss at Cincinnati on Nov. 1 before the bye.
Jacksonville's defense vs. a Titans offense finding its legs
The efficiency gap is wide. Jacksonville gains 5.9 yards per play to Tennessee's 4.84, converts 46.4% on third down to the Titans' 36.2%, and has allowed touchdowns on just 9 of 22 red-zone trips. The Jaguars give up only 89.3 rushing yards per game, which matters because Tony Pollard (595 yards, six TDs) has five touchdowns in his last two games, per the AP.
Cam Ward has 1,483 passing yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions, but he's coming off a career-high 304 yards at Cincinnati. Across the field, Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 1,932 yards with 18 touchdowns and four picks, and Parker Washington (493 yards, five TDs) gives him a reliable target. The turnover column tells the story: Jacksonville is +9 with 15 takeaways, while Tennessee sits at -1 with 12 giveaways.
Tennessee's best counter is pressure. Jacob Martin has a career-high 6.5 sacks, and the Titans have 20 as a team to Jacksonville's 16.
Who's missing, and why it matters
Tennessee's final report rules out WR Carnell Tate (team-high 413 receiving yards), LB Anthony Hill Jr. (82 tackles, most among NFL rookies per the AP), LB Cody Barton, G Peter Skoronski, CB Jaylon Jones and P Tommy Townsend. RB Tyjae Spears is questionable. That's on top of the deadline trades that sent All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons and S Amani Hooker, who left tied for the league lead with five interceptions, out of Nashville.
Jacksonville added DT Jordan Davis, S Jessie Bates III and DT Davon Godchaux at the deadline, but Davis and Bates are both ruled out, listed as non-injury rest. DE BJ Green II is also out, and C Robert Hainsey (concussion) is questionable. RB Bhayshul Tuten, DE Travon Walker and WR Jakobi Meyers were limited Friday but carry no game designation.
How the line has moved
Jacksonville sat at -8.5 before the Baltimore win and is -10.5 now at every licensed book, with one at -11. The total has crept up from 44.5 to 46-46.5. The market has priced in both the Titans' trades and the Jaguars' form.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on Titans vs Jaguars. Jacksonville is the better team by every number, but the price already says so:
- The model has the Jaguars around 84%, and the best licensed moneyline (-588) implies 85.5%. The model is at or just under the market.
- The matchup clearly favors Jacksonville: 5.9 vs. 4.84 yards per play, +9 vs. -1 in turnovers, 15.1 vs. 24.9 points allowed.
- Laying 10.5 in a division game asks for a margin the Titans haven't allowed lately: they've scored 24 or more three straight times.
- Jacksonville sitting Davis and Bates softens its deadline upgrade for this week.
The swing factor is turnovers. Tennessee had nine takeaways over its past three games, per the AP, and a short field is how a 1-7 home team stays inside double digits. The forecast is in the low 50s. On the total, 46-46.5 sits between Jacksonville's scoring pace and Tennessee's recent bounce, so we have no position there either.
