Analysis
Jets vs Bills Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 10)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Bills moneyline (-455). The model gives Buffalo about 84%, above the 80.6% to 82.0% the licensed prices imply.
- Buffalo leads the NFL at 32.0 points per game; the Jets score 20.2 and have lost four straight.
- James Cook (814 yards) faces a Jets run defense allowing 128 yards a game, 26th in the league.
- Garrett Wilson (concussion) is questionable after a full Friday practice; Bills RT Spencer Brown is doubtful.
The Buffalo Bills (7-1) visit the New York Jets (2-7) at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, Nov. 15 at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. Licensed books have Buffalo laying 7.5 to 8.5 points, with the total at 50.5 to 51. The NFL's highest-scoring team meets a club that has dropped four straight, though five of New York's seven losses came by one score. Our pick: Bills moneyline (-455), high confidence.
How these teams got here
Buffalo is 4-0 on the road under first-year coach Joe Brady and leads the league in scoring at 32.0 points per game, per the AP. The only blemish is a 29-26 home loss to New England on Oct. 4. Since then the Bills have won four in a row: 37-34 in overtime at the Rams, 33-30 at Las Vegas, 36-10 over Baltimore and 23-6 at Minnesota on Monday night. The defense has allowed 16 points in the last two games combined. The catch is the calendar: that Monday game leaves Buffalo on six days' rest for a road division game.
The Jets have scored 20.2 points per game and allowed 24.8. The skid reads 26-19 at New England, 28-25 to Miami, 38-33 to Las Vegas and 35-12 at Kansas City last Sunday. Only two of their seven losses came by more than one score, per the AP, which is the whole case for the home dog. Buffalo has won the last five meetings, including 35-8 in Orchard Park on Jan. 4.
James Cook vs. a leaky Jets run defense
This is the matchup that tilts the game. James Cook has 814 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, fifth in the NFL per the AP. He has topped 75 yards and scored in seven straight games. The Jets allow 128 rushing yards per game, 26th in the league. Buffalo runs for 146.6 yards per game, and Josh Allen adds a designed-run threat: his 285 rushing yards lead all quarterbacks, per the AP. Through the air Allen has 2,027 yards with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
The efficiency gap is just as wide. The Bills convert 43.2% on third down and 66.7% in the red zone. The Jets sit at 35.4% and 40.7%. Geno Smith (2,078 yards, 12 TD, 3 INT) went 18 of 32 for 165 yards at Kansas City, and the offense never found the end zone. New York's best counterpunch is up front: rookie David Bailey has 7.5 sacks, and the Jets have 22 as a team against the 17 Buffalo has allowed. They also own the turnover column at +3, while the Bills are even.
The injury report: Wilson's head, Buffalo's right tackle
Garrett Wilson missed the Kansas City game in the concussion protocol. He practiced fully on Friday and is officially questionable. Adonai Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. are also questionable, so the Jets' receiver room hinges on Sunday decisions. LB Trevin Wallace is out. DL Harrison Phillips is questionable after missing Wednesday and Thursday, then practicing fully Friday. Corners Jarvis Brownlee Jr. and Nahshon Wright are questionable too.
For Buffalo, RT Spencer Brown is doubtful after sitting out Thursday and Friday, and that's the spot Bailey will hunt. Dion Dawkins, Connor McGovern and Dalton Kincaid were limited early in the week but carry no game status. CB Christian Benford, CB Jordan Hancock and S Sam Franklin Jr. are questionable.
How the line has moved
Buffalo sat at -7 at a couple of books early in the week; the AP's Wednesday preview listed Bills by 7.5. The spread now ranges from -7.5 to -8.5. The total has bounced between 49.5 and 51.5 this week and settles at 50.5 to 51. The moneyline runs -417 to -455 on Buffalo and +330 to +350 on New York.
Prediction: Bills moneyline (-455)
Our model makes Buffalo about an 84% winner. The licensed moneylines imply 80.6% to 82.0%, so the price still leaves room.
- Scoring gap: 32.0 points per game against 20.2, and the Bills have won the last five meetings.
- Cook vs. the run defense: the league's fifth-leading rusher faces a unit allowing 128 yards a game.
- Finishing drives: a 66.7% red-zone rate against 40.7% is how a team keeps winning on the road.
- Road form: Buffalo is 4-0 away from home.
The risk: the Jets lose close. Five one-score losses, a Bills short week and a doubtful right tackle against a hot rookie edge rusher all point to a tighter game than the number. That's why the play is the moneyline, not -8.5.
The total: 50.5 to 51 sits right on top of the two teams' combined scoring average (52.2). The forecast calls for about 50 degrees with gusts near 27 mph, which keeps us off the over.
