Analysis
Saints vs Panthers Prediction, Picks & Odds (NFL Week 10)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model's win probability for the Saints matches what the -135 to -149 moneyline implies, so there's no value on either side.
- Carolina has lost three straight, outscored 96-53, and Bryce Young has been sacked nine times in the last two games.
- New Orleans is without C Erik McCoy and RT Taliese Fuaga, but Carolina has just 12 sacks, tied for 31st in the NFL.
- The winner takes sole possession of first place in the NFC South.
The Carolina Panthers (3-5) visit the New Orleans Saints (3-5) on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1 p.m. ET at the Caesars Superdome (Fox), and the winner takes sole possession of first place in the NFC South. New Orleans is a 1.5- to 2.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5 to 49, a full flip from the first lines after Week 9. Both offensive lines are short-handed, and the model lands right on the market. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
The Saints have won two of their last three, but nothing has come easy. They beat the Giants 34-27 on the road, lost 16-10 to Pittsburgh, then survived Cleveland 23-22 in overtime last Sunday when the Browns' go-ahead 2-point try failed. That was New Orleans' first win in the Superdome this season, and the Saints are still 1-4 at home. They score 23.1 points per game and allow 27.0, a -31 point differential.
Carolina is heading the other way. After wins over Detroit (32-26) and at Philadelphia (25-14), the Panthers have dropped three straight to Tampa Bay (43-13), at Green Bay (27-19) and Denver (26-21), getting outscored 96-53 in that stretch. They still score more than the Saints (24.9 per game, 11th in the NFL) but allow 27.4. Both teams played last Sunday, so neither has a rest edge, and with Tampa Bay and Atlanta at 3-6, Sunday's winner sits alone atop the division.
Shough vs a patched-up Carolina secondary
The matchup that decides this game is Tyler Shough against the Panthers' cornerbacks. Shough has thrown for 1,986 yards, 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and he put up 265 passing yards plus 51 rushing yards against Cleveland. Chris Olave leads the Saints with 56 catches for 734 yards, and he had seven grabs for 98 yards last week. Kellen Moore also said rookie Jordyn Tyson will see more snaps after a four-catch debut.
Carolina's secondary is thin. Mike Jackson (groin) is doubtful to come off injured reserve and Will Lee III (hamstring) is questionable. Against Denver, practice-squad call-ups Corey Thornton and Marco Wilson were flagged five times combined for pass interference, per the AP, while Bo Nix completed 25 of 37 passes.
On the other side, Bryce Young (2,197 yards, 16 TD, 6 INT) has struggled in this series: he is 1-5 against New Orleans with three touchdown passes and four interceptions, per the AP. He has been sacked nine times in the last two games behind a line missing three starters. Carolina has allowed 26 sacks, and Chase Young already has 8 for a Saints defense that ranks tied for 10th with 23.
Injuries hit both lines
New Orleans ruled out center Erik McCoy (biceps) and right tackle Taliese Fuaga (knee), two starters up front, plus defensive lineman Christen Miller (knee) and running back CJ Donaldson (shoulder). Cornerback Martin Emerson (shin) is questionable after limited practices all week. Travis Etienne (hamstring) is questionable but practiced fully Friday in his return window. Alvin Kamara is off the report.
The silver lining for the Saints: Carolina's pass rush has only 12 sacks, tied for 31st, so the protection hole may not get exposed. Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) is questionable after practicing fully Friday, and his status matters. Linebacker Bobby Okereke (foot) is out, which thins the middle against Kamara and the run game. Running back Jonathon Brooks is doubtful, and receiver Xavier Legette and tackle Brady Christensen are questionable as they work back from injured reserve.
How the line has moved
In the first numbers posted after Week 9, Carolina was a 1- to 2-point favorite at several licensed books. Now New Orleans is -2.5 almost everywhere (one book has -1.5), with the moneyline at -135 to -149. The total has climbed from 46.5–47 to 48.5–49.
Prediction: no edge
There's no bet on the side here:
- The model and the market agree. The model's win probability for New Orleans lands within a point or two of what the -135 to -149 moneyline implies, so there's no price edge on either side.
- Two near-identical resumes. Both teams are 3-5, both allow 27-plus points per game, and their differentials (-31 and -20) are close.
- The edges cancel out. The Saints should find throwing lanes against Carolina's depleted corners, but they're missing two starting linemen and rank 28th in turnover margin (-6). Carolina is at -1.
- Home field doesn't help much. The Saints are 7-14 in the Superdome since the start of 2024, though they won both home games against Carolina in that span.
The swing factor is Phillips. If he plays and wins against a reshuffled right side, Carolina can steal it.
On the total, both defenses give up over 27 points a game, but the number has already risen to 48.5–49, and we don't see value left on either side.
