Analysis
Chiefs vs Jets Prediction, Picks & Odds (NFL Week 9)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has Kansas City at about 80%, level with the market after the vig, and -485 to -526 needs 82.9% or better to break even.
- Garrett Wilson (concussion) is out for the Jets, but Breece Hall returns after five missed games and David Bailey is expected back.
- The Chiefs run for 134.1 yards a game (6th). The Jets allow 123.6 and gave up 232 to Chicago.
- The total opened at 41.5 and sits at 47.5 to 48 after the Jets scored 25 and 33 in their last two games.
The New York Jets (2-6) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET on CBS, with Kansas City favored by 9 to 10 points and the total at 47.5 to 48. A two-game Chiefs skid meets a Jets offense that keeps scoring, now without Garrett Wilson. Our call: no edge. The model has Kansas City at about 80%, and that's where the market sits too.
Two skids, very different reasons
The Chiefs opened 5-0, then took a 20-3 beating in Seattle and gave away an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in a 28-24 loss at Denver. The team's own accounting of that one is ugly: 11 penalties for 105 yards, and personal fouls that led directly to 18 Denver points. Kansas City still out-gained the Broncos, still averages 23.9 points (11th) while allowing 18.7, and is 3-0 at home.
The Jets have lost three straight by one possession: 26-19 at New England, 28-25 to Miami and 38-33 to Las Vegas. They're 1-5 in one-score games, per the Chiefs' team site. Against the Raiders they scored on their first six possessions and still lost, because four of those drives ended in field goals while Las Vegas went 4 for 4 in the red zone, per AP. New York's 42.3% red-zone touchdown rate is last in the NFL. The yardage is real, though: 7.1 and 7.2 yards per play over the last two weeks, per the Jets' site.
Kenneth Walker against a run defense that has leaked
This is the matchup to watch. Kansas City runs for 134.1 yards a game (6th) at 5.1 a carry, tied for the league lead, and Walker has 770 yards and six touchdowns on 141 carries. But Seattle held him to 36 yards and Denver to 69. The Jets allow 123.6 rushing yards a game and have given up 232 to Chicago, 156 to Miami and 148 to New England. Rookie edge rusher David Bailey, who has 5.5 sacks, missed Week 8 with a groin injury but practiced fully Friday and is expected to play.
Patrick Mahomes has 1,795 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, and the Chiefs have allowed only nine sacks. The Jets have one defensive interception all season, the fewest in the league.
On the other side, Geno Smith is at 8.0 yards per attempt and a 104.5 passer rating, both fifth in the NFL, with three interceptions. Steve Spagnuolo's defense is a tougher test: 319.1 net yards allowed a game (12th) and 5.04 a play (9th), per the Jets' site. Pressure is the open question. Kansas City has nine sacks, tied for 30th, while the Jets have allowed 23.
Wilson out, Hall back and a thinner Chiefs front
Wilson (concussion) is out after 43 catches for 527 yards, more than double the catches of any other Jet, per the Chiefs' site. Linebacker Trevin Wallace is out too. That puts more on Adonai Mitchell, who had seven catches for 142 yards and a touchdown against Las Vegas. Breece Hall returns from a quad injury after missing five games and carries no game status. Braelon Allen just ran for a career-high 147, so how Aaron Glenn divides the carries matters. Edge Joseph Ossai, defensive lineman Harrison Phillips, cornerback Nahshon Wright and safety VJ Payne are all questionable.
Kansas City is down two interior linemen, Peter Woods (neck) and Omarr Norman-Lott (knee), along with cornerback Mansoor Delane (shoulder), and L'Jarius Sneed is listed on injured reserve. The Chiefs have allowed just 96.3 rushing yards a game, and this is a real test of that number. Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Nick Bolton all practiced fully Friday with no game status. Receiver Nikko Remigio is questionable.
How the line has moved
The total tells the story. It opened at 41.5, was still 43.5 last Sunday and now sits at 47.5 to 48. The spread opened at Kansas City -9.5 and has moved between -8.5 and -10 over the last two days. The moneyline runs from -485 to -526.
Prediction: No edge on Chiefs vs Jets
No edge. Kansas City is the likelier winner, but there's no price worth paying:
- The model matches the market. It has the Chiefs at about 80%, the same as the no-vig figure across books, while the -485 to -526 moneyline needs 82.9% to 84.0% to break even.
- Nine or 10 points is a lot against this profile. The Jets' last three losses were all one-possession games. They're 4-3-1 against the spread and the Chiefs are 3-4, per AP.
- The injuries cut both ways. Losing Wilson hurts, but Hall and Bailey are back, and Kansas City is short on the interior and at corner.
- History doesn't settle it. The Chiefs have won three straight over the Jets at Arrowhead by a combined 83-22, per AP, but the teams last met in 2023.
The swing factor is Kansas City's own mistakes. Beyond those 11 penalties, Harrison Butker has missed 16 kicks since the start of last season, the most in the NFL per AP. Smith's 539 deep passing yards also lead the league, per Next Gen Stats, so a late backdoor is live.
On the total, a six-point climb has already priced in the Jets' 25 and 33 in their last two games. We'd pass at 47.5 to 48 as well.
