Analysis
Cowboys vs 49ers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 10)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: 49ers moneyline at -213. The model has San Francisco around 74%, above the roughly 68% the price implies.
- San Francisco is +79 in scoring margin through eight games; Dallas is +10 through nine and 1-3 at home.
- Trent Williams (shoulder) is questionable after missing Thursday and Friday practice. He is the swing factor.
- The line sits at 49ers -3.5 to -4 (down from -4.5 earlier in the week) with a 55.5 to 56 total.
The San Francisco 49ers (7-1) visit the Dallas Cowboys (4-5) at AT&T Stadium on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox, laying 3.5 to 4 points with a total of 55.5 to 56. San Francisco has beaten Dallas four straight times and owns a share of the NFL's best record, but it arrives without Mike Evans and with left tackle Trent Williams questionable. Our call: 49ers moneyline (-213). The model has them clearly above the price.
How these teams got here
San Francisco is 7-1 and has outscored opponents 235-156, a margin of nearly 10 points per game. The only loss came 29-20 at Atlanta on Oct. 25. After a bye, the Niners came back with a 38-17 rout of the Raiders, holding Las Vegas to 24 rushing yards, their lowest allowed in 11 years per the AP.
Dallas is 4-5 under Brian Schottenheimer, with 246 points scored and 236 allowed. The Cowboys beat the Colts 27-23 last week, one week after a 33-30 overtime loss to Arizona at home. Home has been the problem: Dallas is 1-3 at AT&T Stadium and 3-2 on the road. The Cowboys haven't won two in a row since a three-game streak last November.
Dallas' ground game vs. the 49ers' front
The Cowboys found something on the ground. They are averaging 159 rushing yards per game over their last three, about 100 more than the three before that, per the AP. Javonte Williams has 629 yards and 9 touchdowns. The problem is San Francisco is the only team that hasn't allowed a run of 20 or more yards this season, and Fred Warner (77 tackles, five forced fumbles) runs that defense.
Through the air, Dak Prescott has 2,381 yards, 16 TDs and 5 INTs, and CeeDee Lamb has 70 catches for 904 yards. George Pickens practiced fully Friday and carries no designation.
On the other side, Brock Purdy is efficient: 1,980 yards, 17 TDs and 5 INTs on 163-of-236 passing. San Francisco converts 51.7% of its third downs, second-best in the league, and gets to face the worst third-down defense in the NFL (Dallas allows 48.3%, per the AP). Christian McCaffrey has 9 rushing touchdowns, and Quinnen Williams (league-high 14 tackles for loss) is the Dallas defender who can wreck the script.
Who's in, who's out
The Niners' receiving room is thin. Mike Evans (Achilles) is out, but Deebo Samuel has no designation after missing three games, and Shanahan said he's clear to play. Keenan Allen, acquired from Indianapolis at the deadline, faces Dallas for the second straight week.
The bigger question is up front: Trent Williams (shoulder) is questionable after missing Thursday's and Friday's practices. "Sunday comes fast. But hopefully, that's enough time for him to be all right," Shanahan said. Cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green are also questionable but returned to practice Friday.
Dallas is down tight end Jake Ferguson and safety P.J. Locke (both out), and safety Juanyeh Thomas is doubtful. Corners Daron Bland and Joey Porter are questionable. That's a lot of uncertainty in a secondary that has to slow Purdy.
How the line has moved
San Francisco was -4.5 at several books earlier this week and now sits at -3.5 to -4. The moneyline runs -204 to -222. The total has gone the other way, from 53.5 to 54.5 around Nov. 8 to 55.5 to 56 now.
Prediction: 49ers moneyline (-213)
The pick is the 49ers to win outright at -213.
- Scoring margin. San Francisco is +79 through eight games; Dallas is +10 through nine.
- Third downs. The NFL's No. 2 third-down offense (51.7%) meets its worst third-down defense (48.3%).
- Model vs. market. The model puts San Francisco around 74%. The -213 price implies about 68%, and even the shortest licensed price (-204) needs 67.1%.
- Dallas at home. The Cowboys are 1-3 at AT&T Stadium.
- Absences. Dallas' secondary is short a starting safety and maybe two corners.
The risk: Williams. If he can't go, Purdy loses his blind-side protector against a Dallas front led by Quinnen Williams, and a passing game without Evans gets thinner. The ML is the cleaner route than laying 4 for that reason.
On the total: 55.5 to 56 asks a lot of a 49ers defense allowing 19.5 points per game, even with Dallas averaging 27.3. We have no play there.
