Analysis
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 9)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has Seattle in the low 70s, below the 78-81% the -417 to -455 moneyline implies.
- Sam Darnold (quad, ribs) is out; Drew Lock starts after going 19-of-26 for 235 yards and 3 TDs against Arizona in Week 2.
- The spread has dropped from Seattle -13.5 to -8.5 and the total from 45.5 to 39.5.
- Seattle is without OT Charles Cross, G Quenton Nelson and DT Leonard Williams, its sack leader.
The Arizona Cardinals (3-5) visit the Seattle Seahawks (4-4) on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET at Lumen Field on Fox. Seattle opened as a 13.5-point favorite and now lays 8.5, with the total down from 45.5 to 39.5, with Sam Darnold out and Drew Lock starting. Gardner Minshew starts for Arizona after replacing Jacoby Brissett. The model likes Seattle, just less than the market does: no edge.
How these teams got here
The defending Super Bowl champions are .500 after a 34-17 home loss to Chicago on Monday night, a game in which Darnold hurt his quad on the final drive and, per coach Mike Macdonald, also cracked a rib early. Seattle is 3-2 at home, scores 23.1 points per game and allows 19.9. It also gets one less day of rest than Arizona after the Monday game.
Arizona arrives off a 33-30 overtime win at Dallas, its third win, which already matches last season's total. Every one of those wins came on the road (3-2 away, 0-3 at home). The problem is the other side of the ball: the Cardinals allow 29.8 points per game and sit at -63 in point differential. Seattle has won the last 10 meetings, including a 31-7 win in Glendale in Week 2.
Drew Lock against a secondary that leaks
That Week 2 game matters, because Lock started it with Darnold hurt then too. He went 19-of-26 for 235 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 9 balls for 155 yards and all three scores. Smith-Njigba has 985 receiving yards and has topped 100 in four straight games. Arizona allows 8.3 yards per pass attempt, so the Lock-to-Smith-Njigba connection is the most direct path to a Seattle cover.
Arizona's answer is the run game and its tight end. Tyler Allgeier was NFC player of the week after 147 yards on 11 carries at Dallas, and Trey McBride's 66 catches lead the NFL. Minshew went 17-of-23 for 188 yards and 3 TDs in relief of Jacoby Brissett, who is now headed to Baltimore. They face a Seattle defense allowing 263.1 yards per game, 5.5 yards per pass attempt and 3.5 yards per carry, and it hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 37 straight games. Seattle also has 13 takeaways, and per AP it is 15-0 under Macdonald when it wins the turnover battle.
Seattle's lines are thin this week
The Darnold news moved the number, but the trenches could decide the cover. Seattle has ruled out tackle Charles Cross and guard Quenton Nelson, so Lock plays behind a patched line on an offense running for only 3.9 yards per carry. On defense, Leonard Williams (team-high 3 sacks), DT Brandon Pili and LB Uchenna Nwosu are all out, which opens a door for Allgeier. WR Rashid Shaheed is out too.
Arizona has its own line problems: OL Jon Gaines II and Jayden Williams are out, and DL Walter Nolen and CB Max Melton are questionable. A Melton absence would leave Arizona even thinner against Smith-Njigba.
How the line has moved
The spread has fallen from -13.5 to -8.5 and the Seattle moneyline from -750 at open to -417 to -455 now. A five-point drop is what a starting-quarterback change looks like. The total has dropped six points, from 45.5 to 39.5, and the forecast at Lumen Field calls for a chance of rain with gusts near 20 mph.
Prediction: No edge on Cardinals vs Seahawks
No edge. Seattle is the right side on paper, but the price has already caught up:
- The model has the Seahawks winning about 72% of the time. The best licensed moneyline, -417, needs 80.7% to break even, and the no-vig market sits near 78-79%.
- Lock has already beaten this defense once (3 TDs, 0 INTs in Week 2), and Arizona gives up 8.3 yards per pass attempt.
- Seattle's defense allows 5.5 yards per pass attempt, a tough first test for Minshew since he took the job.
- But Arizona has won three road games and faces a Seattle front without Williams, Pili and Nwosu.
Swing factor: Allgeier against a depleted Seattle interior. If Arizona can run the ball, a backup-QB game keeps the clock moving and stays inside the number.
Total: the drop to 39.5 already prices in Lock and the weather, so there's no value on either side.
