Analysis
Cardinals vs Cowboys Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 8)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model makes Dallas a 73% winner, below the 76% to 79% the licensed moneyline implies, so we pass at -7.
- Dallas converts 49.4% on third down to Arizona's 37.7% and out-gains the Cardinals 358.7 to 325.6 yards per game.
- The Cowboys still allow 25.7 points a game, and Arizona is +2 in turnovers to Dallas' -3.
- The total has climbed from 51.5 to 54.5; the two defenses allow a combined 55.4 per game.
The Arizona Cardinals (2-5) visit the Dallas Cowboys (3-4) at AT&T Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX. Dallas is a 7-point favorite, the total sits at 54.5 across licensed books, and the Cowboys are coming off a 38-21 win in Philadelphia. Our model makes Dallas a 73% winner, which is about what a -312 to -370 moneyline already charges. No edge: SportsHub passes on a side.
How these teams got here
Dallas has been a coin flip all year: 27.0 points scored and 25.7 allowed per game, a 1-2 home record and a 2-2 road record. The last five go L-W-L-L-W: a 34-31 loss to Baltimore, a 34-30 win at Houston, a 24-16 home loss to Tampa Bay, a 23-13 loss at Green Bay, then last Sunday night's 38-21 win at Philadelphia, where Javonte Williams ran for 155 yards on 25 carries and Dak Prescott threw three touchdowns.
Arizona's hole is deeper. The Cardinals score 20.3 and allow 29.7 per game, a -66 point differential through seven games. They are 0-3 at home and 2-2 on the road. Over the last five they topped 24 points once, beat the Rams 18-16 and lost the other four, most recently 30-16 to Denver, when Jacoby Brissett needed 48 attempts to throw for 272 yards.
Dallas' offense against a leaky Arizona defense
Prescott is 178-of-273 for 1,851 yards, 13 TDs and 5 INTs. Williams has 472 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, and CeeDee Lamb leads the team with 53 catches for 651 yards and 6 scores. The cleanest gap on paper is third down: Dallas converts 49.4%, Arizona 37.7%. The Cowboys also out-gain the Cardinals 358.7 to 325.6 yards per game.
Arizona's offense runs through Trey McBride (59 catches, 472 yards, 4 TDs; 10 for 111 last week). The ground game hasn't helped: rookie Jeremiyah Love has 245 yards on 67 carries, and the team averages 3.7 yards per rush. Brissett has 1,600 yards, 10 TDs and 6 INTs, and head coach Mike LaFleur has said Brissett stays the starter.
Arizona's path is turnovers. The Cardinals are +2 in turnover margin with zero lost fumbles; Dallas is -3 with just four takeaways all season.
Injuries that shape the matchup
The biggest name is Cowboys WR George Pickens, questionable with shoulder and hamstring issues after a limited Friday. Return man and gadget receiver KaVontae Turpin (ribs) is out, so is linebacker Dee Winters (calf), and defensive tackle Kenny Clark (back) is questionable. Without Winters, a defense that already gives up 25.7 a game is thinner in the middle.
For Arizona, the problem is up front. Right guard Jon Gaines II (ankle) is out, and center Hjalte Froholdt (knee) is questionable after missing practice all week. On defense, DL Walter Nolen III (ankle) is out, and corner Max Melton and safety Andrew Wingard are both questionable with knee injuries. Rookie QB Carson Beck (back) was a full participant Thursday and Friday but isn't in line to start.
How the line has moved
Lookahead lines in September had Dallas -10.5 with a 49.5 total. After Week 7 the spread reopened near -6 and has crept back to -7. The total has climbed steadily, from 51.5 to 54.5. The market is betting on points, not on a lopsided game.
Prediction: no edge on Cardinals vs Cowboys
No edge. Dallas is the better team, but the price already reflects it:
- Model vs market: 73% for Dallas against 76% to 79% implied by the licensed moneyline. ESPN's matchup predictor is higher on Dallas at 78.4%.
- Third downs and yardage favor Dallas: 49.4% vs 37.7% conversion, and a 33-yard-per-game edge in total offense.
- But Dallas doesn't stop anyone: 25.7 points allowed per game makes laying a full touchdown uncomfortable.
- Turnovers lean Arizona: +2 vs -3, the one area where the Cardinals have the edge.
The swing factor is Pickens. If he's limited, Dallas leans harder on Williams and Lamb against a secondary with two questionable starters.
On the total, the two defenses allow a combined 55.4 points per game, right on top of 54.5 after a three-point climb from 51.5. No play there either.
