Analysis
Bengals vs Titans Prediction, Picks & Odds (NFL Week 8)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives the Bengals an 85% win chance, but the licensed moneyline (-667 to -833) already implies about 87% to 89%.
- Cincinnati is -12.5 at licensed books, up from 10 to 10.5 earlier this week. The total is 46.5.
- The Titans score 15.4 points per game and are without rookie WR Carnell Tate (34 catches, 413 yards) and DT Jeffery Simmons, who was traded to Chicago.
- Five of Tennessee's seven games have been decided by one score, and that is the case against laying 12.5.
The Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) host the Tennessee Titans (1-6) Sunday at 1 p.m. ET at Paycor Stadium on CBS, with Cincinnati laying 12.5 points across licensed books after opening the week at 10 to 10.5. Joe Burrow is rolling and the Titans just lost their top rookie receiver and their best defensive lineman, but Tennessee has kept five of seven games within one score. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Cincinnati is over .500 through six games for only the second time in Zac Taylor's eight seasons, per AP; the other was 2021. The Bengals have won two straight, most recently a 35-13 win at Baltimore on Oct. 25 in which they trailed 13-0 at halftime and then scored on their first five second-half possessions. They score 27.2 points per game, allow 20.3, and are 3-1 on the road but only 1-1 at home.
Tennessee is 1-6 in Robert Saleh's first season. Last week the Titans blew a 14-0 first-quarter lead in a 27-24 loss to Cleveland. Their only win came 26-20 at Indianapolis on Oct. 18. They score just 15.4 points per game and allow 22.3. Blowouts like the 26-3 home loss to Houston have been rare, though: per AP, all but two of their games have been decided by one score.
Burrow vs. a defense that just got thinner
Burrow has 1,653 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and three interceptions, and has thrown four touchdowns without a pick in each of his last two games. Tee Higgins has 571 yards on 33 catches, and Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Gesicki have five touchdown catches each. Gesicki has scored in four straight games, a franchise record for a tight end. The Titans allow 245.7 passing yards and 376.9 total yards per game.
That defense got weaker Thursday, when Tennessee traded Jeffery Simmons to Chicago. Per AP, his 21 quarterback pressures were the most among NFL defensive tackles entering the week.
When the Titans have the ball, the tape is ugly. Cam Ward has 1,179 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions. Per AP, he averages 5.5 yards per attempt when he isn't blitzed, the fewest among qualified passers, and he faces four or fewer rushers on 76.2% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the league. Cincinnati blitzes less than anyone (18.5%) yet entered the week tied for the league lead with 21 sacks. Boye Mafe leads the team with 4.5.
Tennessee's way to stay in the game is Tony Pollard. He has 478 yards and four touchdowns, and last week he ran for a season-high 129 yards and scored all three Titans touchdowns. The Bengals rank 19th against the run at 116.3 yards allowed per game, and AP notes that linebacker Barrett Carter is tied for second among linebackers with seven missed tackles.
The injury report hits the Titans harder
Rookie Carnell Tate is out with a shoulder injury. He leads all NFL rookies with 34 catches for 413 yards, and he's Tennessee's leading receiver. That leaves Ward leaning on Calvin Ridley, who is questionable with a hip injury but practiced fully Friday. Running back Tyjae Spears (knee) and punter Tommy Townsend (knee) are also out. Defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers (groin/back) and cornerback Jaylon Jones (knee) are questionable. Pollard got a rest day Thursday, practiced fully Friday and has no designation.
Cincinnati's list is shorter. Safety Kyle Dugger is out with a quad injury, and linebacker Joe Giles-Harris is questionable with a calf injury. Chase sat Wednesday for rest and then practiced fully Thursday and Friday, so he has no designation.
How the line has moved
The September lookahead had Cincinnati at 6.5 to 7. This week's market opened at 10 to 10.5, moved to 11 to 12 by Friday, and sits at -12.5 everywhere licensed today. The moneyline runs -667 to -833. The total started the week at 45 to 45.5 and is now 46.5 at most books.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Our model gives the Bengals an 85% win probability at medium confidence. The licensed moneyline already implies about 87% to 89%, so the market is past the model on the side.
- The case for Cincinnati: Burrow's form (15 TD, 3 INT), an offense that scores 11.8 more points per game than Tennessee's, and a Titans team without Tate or Simmons.
- The matchup leans Cincinnati, too: Ward has been at his worst against standard four-man rushes, which is exactly how the Bengals play.
- The case against laying 12.5: Five of Tennessee's seven games have been one-score games, Pollard is facing a run defense that ranks 19th, and the Bengals are just 1-1 at home.
- Swing factor: If Pollard gets 25-plus carries and Tennessee shortens the game, a two-score spread gets tough to cover late.
On the total, Cincinnati's 27.2 points per game plus Tennessee's 15.4 comes to about 42.6, under the 46.5 posted. With Tennessee also allowing 22.3, that isn't a gap worth playing either way.
