Analysis
Jaguars vs Colts Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 8)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Jacksonville 80%, below the 83–84% the moneyline implies at -476 to -526.
- The Jaguars allow just 72.2 rushing yards per game, a tough draw for Jonathan Taylor (587 yards, 8 TDs).
- Turnover margin: Jacksonville +5, Indianapolis -9.
- The spread has moved from -4.5 to -10 after the Colts traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) host the Indianapolis Colts (2-5) at 1 p.m. ET Sunday at EverBank Stadium (CBS, Paramount+). Jacksonville is laying 10 to 10.5 points, with the moneyline between -476 and -526. The number has more than doubled since September, and it jumped again after Indianapolis traded DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson on Tuesday. Our model has the Jaguars winning 80% of the time, right where the market prices them: no edge.
How these teams got here
Jacksonville comes in rested. Its last game was a 34-31 loss to Houston in London on Oct. 18, followed by a Week 7 bye. Before that the Jaguars won three straight: 35-6 over New England, 22-17 at Cincinnati and 19-17 over Philadelphia. They score 25.7 points per game and allow 17.3, and they're 3-1 at home.
Indianapolis is heading the other way. The Colts have lost three in a row: 34-22 at Pittsburgh, 26-20 to Tennessee and 16-10 at Minnesota last week. They score 22.0 and allow 25.7 per game, and they're 1-3 on the road. Then the front office acted like a seller. Nelson went to Seattle for future picks, and Buckner went back to San Francisco for a 2027 fourth-rounder. The trade deadline is Nov. 10, so this may not be the last move.
Jonathan Taylor vs. the Jacksonville run wall
The Colts' offense still runs through Jonathan Taylor: 587 yards and 8 touchdowns on 140 carries. That runs straight into the stingiest part of Jacksonville's defense, which allows only 72.2 rushing yards per game. Indianapolis now does it without Nelson. Per Colts.com, rookie Jalen Farmer is set for his first career start at left guard.
If Taylor stalls, the game lands on Daniel Jones, and that's the matchup Jacksonville wants. Jones has 1,398 passing yards with 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and Indy has allowed 19 sacks. The turnover gap is stark: the Jaguars are +5 in turnover margin, the Colts -9 with 12 giveaways against 3 takeaways.
The Colts' best hope sits on the other side of the ball. Jacksonville allows 283.0 passing yards per game, so its pass defense does leak. Still, Trevor Lawrence has been efficient, with 1,480 yards, 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Parker Washington leads the team at 416 receiving yards and 4 scores, and Bhayshul Tuten has 388 rushing yards. Jacksonville converts 48.0% on third down to Indy's 39.8%.
The injury picture
Indianapolis' secondary is thin. CB Justin Walley (knee) and WR/returner Anthony Gould (concussion) are out, and CB Cam Taylor-Britt went to injured reserve this week. The good news: Shane Steichen said CB Sauce Gardner (calf) and TE Tyler Warren (groin) are good to go. TE Drew Ogletree (knee) and LB Bryce Boettcher (groin) are questionable. WR Alec Pierce remains on IR.
Jacksonville rules out S Antonio Johnson (ankle), who was hurt in London. WR Jakobi Meyers (hamstring, ankle) is questionable. RT Anton Harrison is on IR, so the Jaguars' line has its own patchwork to manage.
How the line has moved
Jacksonville opened around -4.5 in September and sat at -7.5 early this week. It was -9.5 before the weekend and is now -10, with one book at -10.5. The total has gone the other way, from 49.5 to 46.5. Jaguars.com flags possible rain on Sunday.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Jacksonville is the better team, but the price already says so.
- Model vs. market: our model gives the Jaguars 80%. The moneyline implies 83–84%, so there's no value on the favorite.
- Run defense: Jacksonville's 72.2 rushing yards allowed per game is the cleanest edge on the board. A strong run defense against Taylor tends to shorten games, which makes a 10-point cover harder.
- Turnovers: a 14-turnover swing in margin (+5 vs. -9) is the main reason the spread can get there.
- Trades: losing Nelson and Buckner hurts Indy in the trenches, but the market has already priced it, from -7.5 to -10 in a week.
Swing factor: a Colts red zone that has scored on 95% of trips. If Indianapolis keeps turning drives into points, the backdoor stays open.
On the total: rain, Jacksonville's run defense and a Colts offense missing its best lineman all point under 46.5. That isn't strong enough to headline.
