Analysis
San Antonio Spurs vs Chicago Bulls Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 11, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives the Spurs about 85%, but -800 to -940 already prices them at roughly 86–87% after the vig.
- San Antonio has won nine straight with a +11.7 average margin; Chicago has lost seven straight and allows 129.3 points a game.
- The Bulls shoot 27.2% from three and let opponents hit 39.5%.
- Devin Vassell (SAS) and Norman Powell (CHI) are both questionable.
The San Antonio Spurs (9-2) carry a nine-game winning streak into the United Center to face the Chicago Bulls (1-8) on Wednesday, Nov. 11 at 8:00 PM ET (CHSN, DAZN, NBA League Pass). San Antonio is a 14.5- to 15.5-point road favorite, with the total at 238.5 to 239.5. The Spurs should win this game, but at -800 to -940 the price already says so: no edge.
Nine straight wins meets seven straight losses
San Antonio dropped its first two games, 116-104 to Oklahoma City and 114-110 to Houston, and hasn't lost since. The Spurs are 5-0 on the road, score 118.7 points per game, allow 107.0, and own a +11.7 average margin. Monday's 122-96 win in Phoenix was the ninth in a row: Victor Wembanyama put up 40 points, 11 rebounds and nine blocks in 25 minutes, and the starters sat for much of the fourth quarter.
Chicago went the other way. A 132-125 win at Milwaukee on Oct. 23 is still the only one. Since then the Bulls have lost seven straight, most recently 127-121 at home to Philadelphia on Sunday, and they are 0-3 at the United Center. They score 112.7 and allow 129.3 per game, a -16.7 margin.
Rest favors Chicago slightly. The Spurs played Monday night in Phoenix and get one day off; the Bulls have been idle since Sunday afternoon.
Wembanyama against a defense that can't hold anyone
Wembanyama is averaging 30.1 points and 11.9 rebounds in under 30 minutes a night. Dylan Harper adds 18.0 points, Stephon Castle 14.3 with 5.2 assists, and De'Aaron Fox 13.9 with 5.9 assists. San Antonio wins the glass by about six a game (49.1 to 43.0).
That is the matchup problem for Chicago. Opponents are shooting 48.5% from the field and 39.5% from three against the Bulls, and Chicago gets outrebounded 49.6 to 43.7 per game. On offense the Bulls take about 42 threes a night and make 27.2% of them, while turning it over 16.1 times a game.
Chicago's scoring runs through Caleb Wilson (19.3 points), Norman Powell (19.2), Matas Buzelis (13.6) and Josh Giddey, who averages 10.3 points and 8.4 assists and had 19 points and 15 assists against Philadelphia.
Vassell and Powell are the names to watch
San Antonio lists Devin Vassell questionable with left adductor tightness. He started the first 10 games, averaging 11.9 points in 30.2 minutes, then sat Monday in Phoenix. Tobias Harris (left calf strain) and Jayden Quaintance (right knee surgery) are out; neither has appeared in a box score this season, so the rotation doesn't change.
Chicago's report is longer. Norman Powell is questionable with low back spasms after missing Sunday's game, and Zach Collins (respiratory illness) and Tobe Awaka (low back tightness) are questionable too. Without Powell, a 27% three-point team loses its second-leading scorer.
How the line has moved
The market opened at San Antonio -14.5 with the Spurs around -610 on the moneyline and a total of 237.5. It now sits at -14.5 to -15.5, the moneyline has climbed to -800 to -940 (Chicago +570 to +630), and the total is 238.5 to 239.5. The early money went to San Antonio, and it took most of the value with it.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. San Antonio is the better team by a wide margin, but the number already reflects that:
- Model vs market: our model gives the Spurs about 85%. The best licensed price, -800, needs 88.9% to break even, and the no-vig market sits around 86–87%. ESPN Analytics has San Antonio at 88.6%.
- Margin gap: +11.7 against -16.7 is a 28.4-point swing in average margin, which is why the spread is this big.
- The spread cuts both ways: Chicago has lost three games by 30 or more (Toronto by 43, Boston by 35, New York by 30), but also lost by four to Washington and by six to New York and Philadelphia.
- Glass and threes: San Antonio's +6.1 rebounding edge and Chicago's 27.2% three-point shooting point to a comfortable Spurs win, not a specific number.
Swing factor: a blowout means garbage time. Wembanyama played 25 minutes in Phoenix, and a big lead could bring the bench in early again, which is the backdoor risk on a 15-point spread.
Total: Spurs games have averaged 225.7 combined points, Bulls games 242.0. The 238.5 to 239.5 number sits between them, so we have no play on the total either.
