Knicks vs CavaliersPrediction, Picks & Odds

The Knicks (4-4) visit the Cavaliers (5-4) at 8 p.m. ET Saturday at Rocket Arena on NBA TV, laying 4.5 to 5.5 points while Cleveland plays the second night of a back-to-back without Jarrett Allen or Sam Merrill. New York has won four of five, Cleveland is 4-1 at home, and the point differentials nearly match. No edge: the model's 66% on the Knicks falls short of the -200 price.

One team rested, one team played last night

New York opened 0-3, then won four of its next five. The last one was loud: 135-105 over Chicago on Wednesday, with Jalen Brunson scoring 22 of his 33 points in the first quarter and the Knicks taking an 84-52 lead into halftime. They've had two days off since.

Cleveland played Friday. The Cavaliers ran past Philadelphia 119-95, bouncing back from two losses in three nights to Oklahoma City. Donovan Mitchell had 23 points, seven rebounds and eight assists, Evan Mobley scored 22, and the defense held LeBron James to eight points in his return to Cleveland. The margin helped the legs: no Cavaliers starter played more than 33 minutes.

The season numbers make this closer than the line. The Knicks score 110.0 and allow 105.1 (+4.9). The Cavaliers score 119.2 and allow 114.7 (+4.6). Nearly the same margin, in very different games: New York's have averaged 215.1 total points, Cleveland's 233.9. The Knicks are 1-2 on the road, and Cleveland's only home loss came against Oklahoma City.

Towns against a short Cleveland front line

Karl-Anthony Towns is the pressure point. He averages 19.9 points and 13.6 rebounds and has reached double-digit rebounds in all eight games. New York out-rebounds opponents by 7.5 a game, Cleveland by 2.4.

Allen, at 13.3 points and 7.8 rebounds, is the Cavaliers' usual answer. Without him, Mobley (19.1 points, 8.0 rebounds) figures to see more time at center with Thomas Bryant behind him. Friday is the counterargument: without Allen, Cleveland beat Philadelphia on the glass by 14, with Mario Hezonja grabbing 10 rebounds. Facing a rested Towns the very next night is a different test.

The guard matchup is closer. Brunson averages 25.6 on 41.4% shooting. Mitchell averages 22.6 on 47.3%, with James Harden adding 16.7 points and 5.9 assists. The teams shoot about the same from three (36.6% for New York, 37.0% for Cleveland), and the Cavaliers take better care of the ball, with 14.1 turnovers a game to the Knicks' 15.4.

The injury report favors New York

New York lists one rotation player. Josh Hart is out with right ankle soreness, though he practiced Friday, per Newsday. He gives the Knicks 8.6 points and 7.3 rebounds in 31.7 minutes. Landry Shamet is in line for a second straight start after scoring seven in 25 minutes against Chicago.

Cleveland's list is longer. Allen (right knee contusion), Merrill (right elbow), Jaylon Tyson (right ankle sprain) and Nae'Qwan Tomlin (low back) are all out on the official 1 p.m. report. Allen logged just seven minutes Wednesday in Oklahoma City before sitting Friday. Merrill, a 7.7-point scorer, went scoreless in 13 minutes Friday before the elbow ended his night. Tyson hasn't played since Oct. 29. That pushes more minutes to Meleek Thomas and Tyrese Proctor.

How the line has moved

The earliest licensed numbers had New York at -3.5. It now sits at -4.5 to -5.5, with the moneyline at -200 to -208 on the Knicks and +163 to +172 on the Cavaliers. The total has come down from about 225 to 222.5 to 224.5. The market has priced in Cleveland's absences, and that's why the obvious story doesn't leave much value.

Prediction: No edge on Knicks vs Cavaliers

No edge. New York is the likelier winner, but the price has caught up:

• The number. The model makes the Knicks a 66% winner at low confidence. The best licensed price, -200, needs 66.7% to break even, and -208 needs 67.5%. The market's no-vig number sits near 64%.
• A second opinion. ESPN's matchup predictor has New York at just 53.7%.
• The spot is priced. Rest and the injury list both favor the Knicks, but the spread has already moved a point or two.
• The margins. A +4.9 against a +4.6 doesn't argue for laying five on the road.
• The building. Cleveland is 4-1 at home. New York is 1-2 away.

The swing factor is Cleveland's depth. If a short rotation fades late on the second night, New York's rebounding can blow this open. If Mitchell and Harden keep the Cavaliers within reach into the fourth, the home crowd makes it a coin flip.

On the total, the two teams' game averages meet at 224.5, right at the top of the market's range, so there's no play there either. These teams see each other again quickly: they meet Wednesday, Nov. 11, in New York on ESPN.