Analysis
Pacers vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks & Odds (Pacers Home Opener, Oct 23)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Indiana 57% (low confidence), below the 67-69% implied by its -204 to -227 moneyline.
- Haliburton returned with 23 points and 12 assists, and Siakam scored 30 as Indiana rallied past New Orleans 123-120.
- Dallas trailed Houston 70-38 at halftime and lost 128-110 with 21 turnovers, despite 32 points from Cooper Flagg.
- Dallas is without Lively, Aldama and Martin; Indiana is without McConnell, and Nesmith is questionable.
The Indiana Pacers (1-0) open Gainbridge Fieldhouse against the Dallas Mavericks (0-1) on Friday at 7 p.m. ET, on CBS4 and DAZN in Indiana and NBA League Pass elsewhere. Indiana is a 6- to 6.5-point favorite. Tyrese Haliburton just posted 23 points and 12 assists in his return from a torn Achilles, while Cooper Flagg poured in 32 in a 128-110 loss at Houston. The market has already priced Indiana past our model: no edge.
Two openers, two very different nights
Indiana's 123-120 win in New Orleans on Wednesday was a fourth-quarter heist. The Pacers trailed 92-86 after three, then won the fourth 37-28 behind Pascal Siakam (30 points on 13-of-23, 8 rebounds) and Haliburton, who went 8-of-15 with 12 assists in 34 minutes. Andrew Nembhard added 18 points and 9 assists, and Obi Toppin gave them 20 off the bench in 25 minutes.
It wasn't clean. Indiana scored 18 points in the second quarter and shot 9-of-30 from three. That is the version of this team that went 19-63 last season without Haliburton, and it showed up for long stretches.
Dallas never got that far. Houston led 70-38 at halftime, and the Mavericks finished with 21 turnovers and 11-of-37 shooting from deep. Flagg was the bright spot: 32 points on 10-of-17 in 33 minutes. Kyrie Irving scored 15 on 6-of-9 in 24 minutes in his first regular-season game since tearing his ACL in March 2025, and Marcus Sasser (17) and Naji Marshall (16) did damage off the bench in Dusty May's NBA debut.
Siakam and Zubac against a thin Dallas frontcourt
This is where Indiana should press. Dereck Lively II (foot surgery) and Santi Aldama (knee surgery) are both out, so Daniel Gafford started at center in Houston and finished with 2 points and 3 rebounds in 22 minutes. The Rockets won the glass 42-33.
Ivica Zubac just went for 16 points and 15 rebounds against New Orleans, and Siakam got to his spots all night. If Dallas can't keep Zubac off the offensive boards and Siakam out of the paint, the Pacers' cold three-point shooting matters less.
The counter is Flagg. He was efficient against a good Houston defense, and Irving's minutes should climb from 24. Dallas still scored 110 while giving the ball away 21 times; cut that to the mid-teens and this is a closer game than the number suggests.
Who's missing, and why it matters
Dallas lists Lively, Aldama, Caleb Martin (thumb) and Tarik Biberovic (heel) as out, with Jett Howard (calf) doubtful. Irving isn't on the report. Martin's absence thins the wing rotation that has to deal with Siakam, and Friday is the front end of a back-to-back for Dallas.
Indiana is without T.J. McConnell (hamstring) for a second straight game. Aaron Nesmith (hamstring) was upgraded to questionable after missing the opener, while Ben Sheppard (knee) was downgraded to questionable. Nesmith is the Pacers' best option against Flagg; if he sits again, Indiana leans harder on Kelly Oubre Jr. and Jarace Walker, who combined for 7 points on 3-of-11 in New Orleans.
How the line has moved
Indiana opened at -5.5 across licensed books and now sits at -6 to -6.5. The moneyline ranges from -204 to -227 on Indiana and +172 to +185 on Dallas. The total has climbed from 234.5 to 236.5-237.5, a fair reaction to openers that landed on 243 and 238 points.
Prediction: no edge
Our model makes Indiana the winner, but only at 57% with low confidence. The moneyline implies 67-69%. That's the whole story: no edge on Indiana at this price.
- The market is ahead of the model. A 57% win probability doesn't support laying -204 or more, and it doesn't support -6.5 either.
- One game is a tiny sample. Indiana's 9-of-30 from three and Dallas's 21 turnovers are both likely to move toward normal, in opposite directions.
- The frontcourt gap is real. Zubac's 15 rebounds against a Dallas group missing Lively and Aldama is the strongest case for Indiana.
- Flagg can keep Dallas close. He scored 32 on 17 shots in the opener, and Irving's minutes should rise.
Swing factor: Nesmith's status. With him, Indiana has a real answer for Flagg; without him, the wing matchup tilts toward Dallas.
On the total: both openers cleared 236.5, and per Covers the Over has hit in 4 of the last 5 meetings. The number has already moved two to three points, so we pass there too.
