Analysis
Pelicans vs Jazz Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 23, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model has Pelicans-Jazz at 50-50 with very low confidence, while the market prices Utah near 58% to 60%.
- The spread has dropped from Jazz -5.5 at the open to -2.5 to -3.5, and the total from 242.5 to 238.5-239.5.
- Utah was outrebounded 55-38 in Memphis and is thin at center with Nurkic out and Bradley questionable.
- Both teams allowed 123 points in their openers.
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-1) visit the Utah Jazz (0-1) on Friday at 9:30 PM ET at Delta Center, on KJZZ and GCSEN locally. Utah is a 2.5- to 3.5-point favorite, down from 5.5 at the open, with the total at 238.5 to 239.5. New Orleans coughed up a fourth-quarter lead at home; Utah got run off the floor in Memphis. Our model calls it a coin flip: no edge.
A blown lead and a blowout
The Pelicans had Indiana beat. They led 92-86 after three quarters and 101-93 midway through the fourth before Tyrese Haliburton scored 8 of Indiana's 10 points in a 90-second burst. The Pacers won 123-120.
There was plenty to like in the loss. Dejounte Murray scored 23 with 7 assists, Zion Williamson added 22, and Yves Missi posted 13 points, 14 rebounds and 3 blocks in his debut as Jamahl Mosley's starting center. New Orleans won the glass 49-43 and went 34-of-37 at the line. What cost it: 43% shooting and 15 turnovers.
Utah's opener was worse. Memphis won 123-103, shot 47% from the field and 38% from three, scored 23 fast-break points and outrebounded the Jazz 55-38. Ty Jerome dropped 45. Friday is Utah's first home game of the season, and Will Hardy has a defense to fix in 48 hours.
The glass and the Jazz frontcourt
This game lives on the boards. Utah's size, with Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jaxson Hayes up front, should be an edge, yet it lost the rebounding battle by 17. Missi grabbed 7 offensive rebounds against Indiana, and he now faces a team that just gave up 55 boards.
Jackson's return to Memphis was rough: 15 points on 6-of-10 shooting, but 5 turnovers and a foul-out in 28 minutes. That matters against Williamson, whose downhill drives are why New Orleans lived at the line on Wednesday. If Jackson picks up early fouls again, the paint opens up.
Utah's guards carried the offense. Keyonte George scored 22 with 5 assists, and Markkanen added 18 and 9 boards. No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson started and played 31 minutes, but he scored 9 points and took one shot after halftime. His second game, at home, is the swing for Utah's half-court offense.
Utah is thin at center
The Jazz are short on bodies in the middle. Jusuf Nurkic is out with a partial plantar plate tear in his right second toe and is expected to miss at least four weeks. Tony Bradley is questionable with a quadriceps issue, and guard Trey Alexander is out with a left knee bone bruise.
If Bradley sits, Utah's backup center minutes get thin against a Pelicans team that crashes the offensive glass. New Orleans had no one on ESPN's injury report as of Thursday night.
How the line has moved
This one opened at Jazz -5.5 with a total of 242.5. The spread is now -2.5 to -3.5 and the total 238.5 to 239.5. That is close to three points of movement toward New Orleans and more than three points off the total.
The moneyline sits at -135 to -147 on Utah and +112 to +124 on New Orleans, which prices the Jazz at roughly 58% to 60% to win. The market has already moved toward the Pelicans, so the value on them that existed at the open is mostly gone.
Prediction: no edge
Our model makes this a 50-50 game at very low confidence, so there is no edge to headline. The reasons:
- The model and the market disagree, but not usefully. A 50% model number against a market at 58% to 60% would point to New Orleans, yet the confidence is the lowest grade we publish.
- The rebounding gap is real. Utah lost the glass 55-38 and is thin at center; Missi had 14 rebounds in his opener.
- Both defenses leaked. Each team allowed 123 points in its opener, and Utah gave up 23 points in transition.
- The number already moved. Jazz -5.5 became -2.5 to -3.5, which takes away most of the cushion for a Pelicans backer.
The swing factor is Jackson's foul count. If he stays on the floor, Utah's size can flip the rebounding battle at home.
On the total, the over has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings and in the Pelicans' last 4 games, per Covers. With the number already down to 238.5 to 239.5, we pass on that too.
