Analysis
Pacers vs Wizards Prediction, Picks & Odds (Wednesday, Nov. 11)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model calls Pacers vs Wizards a coin flip with very low confidence, while the market has Indiana around 59–60%.
- Indiana is 0-5 at home and 3-3 on the road; it lost Monday at Dallas after leading by 10 at halftime.
- Anthony Davis averages 25.7 points and 9.7 rebounds, and Indiana is getting outrebounded by 6.8 a game.
- Indiana makes 12.6 threes a game to Washington's 9.5, the best case for the 4.5-point favorite.
The Indiana Pacers (3-8) host the Washington Wizards (4-7) on Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse (MNMT, DAZN IND). Indiana is a 4.5-point favorite and -160 to -169 on the moneyline, even though the Pacers are 0-5 at home. Washington has dropped four straight but brings Anthony Davis off a 44-point night. Our model sees a coin flip with very little conviction, so the call is no edge.
How these teams got here
Indiana's season has a strange shape: 3-3 on the road, 0-5 at home. All three wins came away from Gainbridge (at New Orleans 123-120, at Brooklyn 136-109, at Memphis 107-103), while Dallas, Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Atlanta and Denver all left Indianapolis with wins. The Pacers score 111.4 points a game and allow 115.2, a -3.8 margin.
Monday stung. Indiana led Dallas 66-56 at halftime, then lost 125-122 as Cooper Flagg (43 points) and Kyrie Irving (35) took over the fourth quarter. Pascal Siakam scored 29, but only three after the break.
Washington is 4-7, has lost four straight and is 2-5 on the road. The Wizards score 108.1 and allow 113.4 (-5.3). Monday's 122-111 loss in Detroit came despite 44 points and 13 rebounds from Davis, who had been a game-time decision with an ankle issue. Two nights earlier, without Davis, Washington scored 75 in a 114-75 loss at Oklahoma City.
Rest is even: both teams last played Monday. Washington hosts Detroit on Thursday, so this is the front end of a back-to-back for the Wizards.
Anthony Davis against a Pacers team that loses the glass
This one turns on Davis. He's averaging 25.7 points and 9.7 rebounds in nine games, and Washington is 4-5 with him and 0-2 without him. Indiana's frontcourt has been the soft spot: the Pacers grab 40.7 rebounds a game and give up 47.5, a -6.8 margin that's worse than Washington's -5.8. Ivica Zubac (9.0 points, 7.7 rebounds in six games) and Obi Toppin (13.4 points) have to keep Davis off the offensive glass.
The counterweight is the three-point line. Indiana makes 12.6 threes a game at 33.5%; Washington makes 9.5 at 29.6%. That's roughly nine points a night in Indiana's favor on volume alone. The catch: the Wizards defend the arc well (opponents shoot 31.3%), while Indiana allows 35.9%, so the gap can shrink fast.
Trae Young (18.5 points, 8.7 assists) and Kyshawn George (17.9 points) carry the creation for Washington, with AJ Dybantsa adding 16.7 a game in seven appearances. For Indiana, Siakam (22.2 points) and Andrew Nembhard (17.1 points, 7.6 assists) do the heavy lifting.
Haliburton's absence and Washington's missing pieces
Tyrese Haliburton is out with a left hamstring strain. He averaged 21.8 points and 9.5 assists in four games before going down, and Indiana is 1-6 since. T.J. McConnell (hamstring) is questionable, which would thin the backcourt further, and Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are also out.
Washington lists Reece Beekman, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic and Jamir Watkins as out. Bilal Coulibaly sat out Monday in Detroit but is not on the official injury report for Wednesday, and neither is Davis.
How the line has moved
The side hasn't budged: Indiana -4.5 at the open and now, with the moneyline holding around -160. The total opened at 228.5 and has dropped to 226.5–227. The scoring averages agree with that move: Indiana's games average 226.6 combined points, Washington's 221.5.
Prediction: no edge
The model makes this a coin flip with very low confidence, while the market prices Indiana around 59–60% once the vig is removed. A model that barely has an opinion isn't a reason to fade the market, so we stay off. What decides the game:
- The home record cuts against laying points. Indiana is 0-5 at home, and covering 4.5 asks the Pacers to do something they haven't done at Gainbridge this season: win.
- Three-point volume favors Indiana. About three extra makes a night (12.6 to 9.5) is the best case for the favorite.
- Davis tilts the glass. A -6.8 rebound margin against a 25.7-and-9.7 big man is Washington's path to an upset.
- ESPN Analytics gives Washington 47.8%, closer to a coin flip than the market, but our own model's very low confidence keeps us off a Wizards ticket.
The swing factor is McConnell's status: without him and Haliburton, Nembhard carries nearly all of Indiana's ball-handling against Young. On the total, 226.5–227 sits right on top of both teams' combined scoring averages, so there's no play there either.
