Analysis
Phoenix Suns vs Charlotte Hornets Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 12, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Phoenix a 61% chance, below the roughly 71% implied by the best licensed moneyline (-250).
- Charlotte is without Brandon Miller (20.6 PPG), Dennis Schroder and Kon Knueppel, per the official injury report.
- Phoenix allows 118.1 points per game; Charlotte scores 98.8 and shoots 30.8% from three.
- Charlotte out-rebounds opponents with 46.1 boards per game; Phoenix grabs 39.7.
The Phoenix Suns (4-6) host the Charlotte Hornets (4-7) Thursday at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center, on KTVK/KPHE in Phoenix, WAXN-TV64 in Charlotte and NBA League Pass. Phoenix is a 7- to 7.5-point favorite (-250 to -260), with the total at 213.5 to 214. Charlotte arrives without Brandon Miller, Dennis Schroder and Kon Knueppel, and the price already reflects it. Our model gives Phoenix 61%, short of the ~71% the moneyline implies: no edge.
How these teams got here
Phoenix has been a tale of two venues. The Suns are 4-3 at home and 0-3 on the road, and they've been outscored by 5.3 points per game (112.8 scored, 118.1 allowed). The last five games went L, W, W, L, W, capped by a 133-110 home win over the Clippers on Tuesday, the back end of a home back-to-back that started with a 122-96 loss to San Antonio. They get one day off before this one.
Charlotte's hole is deeper. The Hornets dropped six straight from Oct. 28 to Nov. 6, a run that included 124-91 to Detroit and 119-80 to Boston, before beating Cleveland 124-112 on Monday. They score 98.8 points per game, allow 110.4 and sit at -11.5 per game for the season. They're 1-3 on the road, and this game opens a Western swing that continues at the Clippers on Sunday. Charlotte has had two days off; Phoenix has had one.
Booker against a shorthanded Charlotte backcourt
Devin Booker is doing what he does: 25.1 points and 4.8 assists a night, with 24 or more in five of his last six games. Miles Bridges adds 15.0 points and 7.4 rebounds, Dillon Brooks 14.9 points, and Jalen Green 11.8. As a team Phoenix shoots 47.2% from the field and 37.6% from three.
Charlotte can't match that efficiency. The Hornets shoot 40.0% overall and 30.8% from three while launching 44.6 threes per game, and they turn it over 17.7 times a night. Their way to stay in games is the glass: 46.1 rebounds and 15.0 offensive boards per game, against a Phoenix team whose opponents average 46.4 rebounds and 14.1 offensive. Naz Reid (17.4 points, 8.5 rebounds) and Moussa Diabate (9.1 rebounds) drive that edge, and second chances are the clearest path to a cover.
Charlotte's injury list decides the shape of this game
The official report Wednesday night listed Brandon Miller out (right hip strain). He leads the team at 20.6 points per game. Dennis Schroder (left hamstring), the assist leader at 4.9 per game, and Kon Knueppel (left hamstring) are out too. Miller and Schroder alone account for 30.8 of Charlotte's 98.8 points. Diabate and Grant Williams are listed as probable.
The Hornets did win Monday without Schroder or Knueppel, with Grayson Allen scoring 27 and Reid 25, but Miller played in that game. Without him, Allen (15.3 per game) and Reid carry the scoring, and more of the ball-handling falls to Sion James and Coby White.
Phoenix is missing center Mark Williams (left shoulder surgery), who hasn't played this season and isn't expected back until February, per ESPN's estimate. Khaman Maluach (8.1 points, 6.4 rebounds in 19.9 minutes) anchors a thin frontcourt, and the Suns give up 46.4 rebounds per game.
How the line has moved
Phoenix opened at -6.5 and now sits at -7 to -7.5 across licensed books, while the total has barely moved, from 214 at the open to 213.5 to 214 now. The market has added roughly a point to Phoenix, in line with Charlotte's injury list.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Phoenix is the right side to win this game, but at this price there's no value:
- The model is below the market. It gives Phoenix a 61% chance; the best licensed moneyline, -250, implies about 71%.
- The injuries are priced in. Charlotte is without 30.8 points per game from Miller and Schroder, and the spread has already moved a point toward Phoenix.
- Phoenix is a shaky favorite to lay 7 with. The Suns allow 118.1 points per game and are -5.3 per game on the season.
- Charlotte's rebounding travels. A 46.1 to 39.7 rebounding gap gives the Hornets extra possessions to hang around.
The swing factor is Charlotte's shooting: at 30.8% from three on nearly 45 attempts, a hot night keeps it within the number, and a cold one turns it into a rout.
On the total, Charlotte's games average 209.2 combined points and Phoenix's average 230.9. Those pull in opposite directions around a 213.5 to 214 line, so we pass there as well.
