Analysis
76ers vs Raptors Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 12, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Philadelphia 69%, below the roughly 80% implied by the -400 moneyline.
- Toronto plays the second night of a back-to-back without Scottie Barnes (23.5 ppg) or Kawhi Leonard.
- Joel Embiid (foot) and LeBron James (back) are day-to-day; their status is the swing on -9.5.
- Philly is 9-3 but outscores teams by just 1.0 point a game; Toronto is +2.5 at 5-6.
The Philadelphia 76ers (9-3) host the Toronto Raptors (5-6) Thursday at 7 p.m. ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena, with Philadelphia a 9.5-point favorite and -400 on the moneyline at the first U.S.-licensed book to post. Toronto arrives on the second night of a back-to-back without Scottie Barnes or Kawhi Leonard. But Philly's 9-3 record sits on a +1.0 scoring margin, and Joel Embiid and LeBron James are both day-to-day. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Philadelphia's record is better than its numbers. The Sixers score 110.2 points per game and allow 109.2, a margin of about one point a night across 12 games. They're 3-2 over their last five: a 126-107 home win over Chicago, wins at Detroit (112-106) and at Chicago (127-121), and two lopsided losses, 119-95 at Cleveland and 123-101 at home to Boston on Tuesday.
Toronto is the opposite story. The Raptors are 5-6 but +2.5 per game, scoring 114.5 and allowing 111.9 over 11 games. They've dropped two straight at home, 118-102 to Memphis and 98-93 to Boston on Wednesday night, the first half of this back-to-back. Philadelphia had Wednesday off.
Thursday is the first of four meetings this season.
Maxey against a short-handed Toronto attack
Tyrese Maxey leads Philadelphia at 26.7 points per game and was its best player in the Boston loss: 24 points on 8-of-12 shooting. James leads the team at 6.5 assists and Embiid at 9.3 rebounds. Toronto's engine is Barnes, who leads the Raptors at 23.5 points and 7.6 rebounds. Without him, the creation falls on RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and Jamal Shead (7.0 assists).
Wednesday showed how thin that gets. Against Boston, Barrett went 5-of-16 and Quickley 3-of-14, including 1-of-8 from three. Ja'Kobe Walter (17 points, 5-of-10 from deep) was the only starter who found a rhythm.
Where Toronto can hang around: the glass and the passing lanes. The Raptors average 14.8 offensive rebounds and 11.1 steals a game, against Philadelphia's 10.3 and 8.3. Philly wins at the line (78.3% to 73.6%) and from three (33.7% to 31.8%), and it turns the ball over less (12.3 to 13.9). If the Sixers keep Toronto off the offensive boards, there aren't many other ways for this Raptors lineup to score.
The injury report decides this one
Toronto's list is long. Leonard (knee) and Barnes (groin) are out, and so is center Nate Bittle (foot). Trayce Jackson-Davis is day-to-day with an illness after sitting out Wednesday. That leaves Jakob Poeltl to anchor the frontcourt on the second night of a back-to-back.
Philadelphia's two biggest names are day-to-day: Embiid with a foot issue and James with a back issue, both listed after Tuesday's loss, in which they played 31 and 29 minutes. Adem Bona (back) is out, which thins the center rotation if Embiid sits.
The 9.5-point spread already prices in Toronto's absences and the back-to-back. What it can't know yet is whether Philadelphia's stars suit up. That's the swing in this game, and it's why we're not forcing a number before the final report.
Prediction: No edge on 76ers -9.5
No edge. Our model makes Philadelphia a 69% winner. The -400 moneyline implies about 80% (roughly 77% with the vig removed). The model sits below the market, so there's no side to headline.
- The margin doesn't back the number. Philadelphia is +1.0 per game across 12 games. On season form alone, 9.5 points is a lot; the spread is about Toronto's absences.
- Toronto's +2.5 was built with Barnes. The 93-point night against Boston is closer to what this roster looks like without him and Leonard.
- Two Sixers stars are day-to-day. If Embiid or James sits, -9.5 looks rich. If both play, the market is probably right.
- Toronto's path to a cover is second chances. At 14.8 offensive rebounds a game, the Raptors can steal possessions against a Philadelphia frontcourt already missing Bona.
The risk: injury news after this posts. Check the final report before tip.
On the total, no U.S.-licensed book had posted one at writing. Philadelphia's games average about 219 combined points, and Toronto just scored 93 without its top scorer. A number in the low 220s would lean low, but not by enough to pick.
