Analysis
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov 12, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- Pick: Timberwolves moneyline at -185. Our model gives Minnesota about a 69% chance; the price implies 64.9%.
- Minnesota is 5-2 since Anthony Edwards last played and outscores opponents by 11.1 points per game.
- Cooper Flagg (25.9 ppg) and Kyrie Irving (22.9) carry a Dallas team that's 2-2 on the road.
- The 226.5 total sits right on both teams' combined scoring averages (225.1 and 225.2): no play.
The Dallas Mavericks (7-4) visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (8-3) on Thursday, Nov. 12 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center, with NBA TV carrying it nationally. Minnesota opened as a 4.5-point home favorite, -185 on the moneyline, with a 226.5 total. Here's the tension: the Wolves keep winning without Anthony Edwards, and Cooper Flagg's Mavericks show up on a three-game heater. Our pick: Timberwolves moneyline (-185).
How these teams got here
Minnesota has won four straight: 112-100 over Milwaukee, 117-107 at Houston, 115-109 at New Orleans and 115-100 over Utah on Sunday. The Wolves score 118.1 points a night and allow 107.0, a +11.1 margin, and they're 4-1 at Target Center.
The Edwards injury hasn't slowed them. He last played on Oct. 26, and Minnesota is 5-2 since then.
Dallas has a three-game run of its own: 112-100 over Utah, a 130-93 rout of Brooklyn and a 125-122 escape against Indiana on Monday. Just before that, though, the Mavs lost at home to Sacramento (115-100) and by a point at San Antonio (112-111). They're outscoring teams by 4.6 a game and are 2-2 on the road. Neither side is on a back-to-back. Minnesota has had three days off since Sunday, Dallas two since Monday.
Cooper Flagg vs. Minnesota's depth
Flagg is doing everything for Dallas: 25.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.9 assists in 10 games. Kyrie Irving adds 22.9 a night in nine appearances. When those two are cooking, Dallas can beat anyone, and the Mavs shoot a sharp 78.2% from the line to close games out.
Minnesota answers with numbers, not one star. LaMelo Ball leads the team at 18.3 points and 6.0 assists, Ayo Dosunmu scores 18.1, Jaden McDaniels 17.0 and Jonathan Kuminga 12.3. Rudy Gobert anchors the glass at 12.1 rebounds.
Two gaps stand out:
- The boards. Minnesota pulls down 48.8 rebounds a game, 14.5 of them offensive, and gives up 43.4. Dallas grabs 44.5 and has been without Dereck Lively II all season, which leaves Daniel Gafford (5.5 boards in 22.1 minutes) to battle Gobert.
- The three-point line. The Wolves hit 14.5 threes on 39.0 attempts (37.3%). Dallas makes 12.4 on 35.9 (34.4%). That's about six points a night from deep before anyone guards anyone.
Who's missing
Edwards is out after right knee arthroscopy. He averaged 33.2 points in four games before the procedure, so this is a different Minnesota offense, more egalitarian and more reliant on Ball's playmaking. Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) is also out. Joan Beringer is available in a face mask.
For Dallas, Lively (right foot surgery), Tarik Biberovic (heel) and Sergio de Larrea (knee) are out. Morez Johnson Jr. is probable with a shin contusion; he gives the Mavs 17.1 minutes, 7.6 points and 5.1 rebounds off the bench. Caleb Martin is available. Flagg and Irving are not on the injury report.
Prediction: Timberwolves moneyline (-185)
- The model is above the market. Our model makes Minnesota about a 69% winner. At -185 the market implies 64.9% (about 62% once you strip the vig), so our fair price is roughly -223. ESPN's matchup predictor lands in the same neighborhood at 71%.
- Margin. Minnesota's +11.1 point differential is more than double Dallas's +4.6.
- Size without Lively. A +5.4 rebounding margin against a frontcourt missing its starting-caliber center.
- Spacing. Two more made threes per game at a better clip.
- Spot. Home, rested, and 5-2 without Edwards. The Wolves have already shown they win without him.
The risk: Flagg and Irving can win a game by themselves, and Minnesota's 67.0% free-throw shooting is a real liability in a one-possession finish. That's why we're on the moneyline and not laying 4.5.
On the total: 226.5 sits right on both teams' combined scoring averages (225.1 for Minnesota games, 225.2 for Dallas games). We have no play there.
