Knicks vs PistonsFinal Score & Recap

The Detroit Pistons (3-0) visit the New York Knicks (0-3) at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET on NBC and Peacock. New York is a 3.5- to 4.5-point favorite and the total sits at 218.5–219.5. The hook: the defending champions own the NBA's worst offense, while unbeaten Detroit just lost All-Star center Jalen Duren. Our model makes the Knicks only 53%, short of the market, so the call is no edge.

How these teams got here

The Knicks are the first defending champion to start 0-3 since the 2011-12 Mavericks, per ESPN. The losses came by 6 to Philadelphia, by 4 at Boston and by 9 to Orlando on Sunday. That last one stung: New York led 86-76 with 9:20 left, then got outscored 35-16 the rest of the way and coughed up eight of its 14 turnovers in the fourth quarter.

The problem is the offense. New York is scoring 101.7 points per game, 30th in the league, with a 102.2 offensive rating that also ranks last. The defense has held up: 108.0 points allowed, ninth.

Detroit is the mirror image. The Pistons beat Boston 121-113 at home, then won at Miami 128-111 and at Philadelphia 106-93, leading the Sixers wire to wire. Their +12.7 net rating ranks fourth, and they're 2-0 on the road.

Rest is a wash. Both teams last played Sunday, and both play again Wednesday: the Knicks at Chicago, the Pistons at home against Charlotte.

Brunson and Towns vs. a Duren-less frontcourt

Jalen Brunson leads New York at 22.7 points per game, but on 39.1% shooting and 26.7% from three. He scored 28 on Sunday. Karl-Anthony Towns has been the steadier engine at 21.0 points and 12.0 rebounds, hitting 45.5% from deep. OG Anunoby adds 17.3 a night. The glaring hole is Mikal Bridges: 3.3 points per game and no made threes yet.

Detroit runs through Cade Cunningham, at 21.3 points and 8.0 assists. He had 26 in Philadelphia, including back-to-back threes that killed a Sixers run. The catch is 5.3 turnovers a game, part of a team-wide 18.0. The shooting has been scorching: 42.0% from three as a team, led by Duncan Robinson at 19.7 points on 53.6% from deep.

Without Duren, the paint gets thinner. Paul Reed leads the team at 8.3 rebounds, and John Collins (15.0 points, 7.7 rebounds) posted 16 and 11 on Sunday. Towns' range can drag that frontcourt away from the rim, which is the cleanest path for a stalled Knicks attack.

Duren out, two Pistons wings questionable

Duren strained his right hamstring in the first half at Miami and is expected to miss at least two weeks, per ESPN. That takes away Detroit's best rim protector and a big piece of a rebounding edge (52.0 boards a game to New York's 47.3).

The 8:30 AM official report also lists Ausar Thompson (right ankle sprain) and Isaiah Joe (right hip contusion) as questionable. Thompson averages 7.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists in two games. If he sits, Detroit loses size and playmaking on the wing.

For New York, Jose Alvarado is out with a left ankle sprain, which pushes more backup guard minutes to Miles McBride (8.0 points, 58.3% from three).

Prediction: no edge

No edge. The model has the Knicks at 53% with low confidence. The licensed moneyline (Knicks -154 to -179) implies roughly 58–60% once the vig comes out. ESPN Analytics sits at 61.4% for New York. Here's why we pass instead of forcing a side:

• New York can't score yet. A 102.2 offensive rating is hard to lay 4 points with.
• Detroit's shooting won't stay this hot. 42.0% from three over three games is a small sample, and the Pistons now lose Duren on both ends.
• The Knicks' defense is real. 108.0 points allowed ranks ninth, and Detroit's 18.0 turnovers a game feed it.
• The market has nudged toward New York. The spread opened at 3.5 and now reaches 4.5 at some books.

The swing factor is the Thompson and Joe decisions. If both sit, Detroit's depth thins out fast.

On the total, the market moved from 218.5 to as high as 219.5. Knicks games have averaged 209.7 combined points, Pistons games 224.0. That's another split, so we have no lean.