Analysis
Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 29, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model gives New Orleans a 66% win chance at low confidence, in line with the 64.4%–66.4% implied by licensed moneylines.
- Sacramento is -71 through four games (107.8 scored, 125.5 allowed); New Orleans is -5.8 per game, and three of its losses came by 6 or fewer.
- The Pelicans play the second night of a back-to-back after shooting 7-of-30 from three in a 104-91 loss to Denver.
- Sabonis averages 16.5 rebounds and New Orleans is without Yves Missi, while the Kings are down two backup centers.
The winless Sacramento Kings (0-4) visit the winless New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Thursday at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center (NBCSCA, GCSEN, NBA League Pass). Licensed books have New Orleans -5.5 to -6, with the total at 237.5–238.5. The Pelicans have the far better point differential, but they're on the second night of a back-to-back, and Sacramento has had a day off. Our call: no edge.
Two 0-4 teams, two very different 0-4s
Sacramento hasn't been close. The Kings lost 121-96 at the Clippers, 128-120 to Portland, 123-112 to Memphis and 130-103 at San Antonio on Tuesday. That's a -71 point differential in four games: 107.8 points scored and 125.5 allowed a night. Basketball Reference has their net rating at -17.6, last in the league, with a 124.6 defensive rating (29th).
New Orleans lost its first three by a combined 10 points: 123-120 to Indiana, 120-119 at Utah and 141-135 in overtime at Denver. Wednesday was the first real beating. Denver led 37-18 after one quarter and won 104-91 as the Pelicans went 7-of-30 from three. Through four games they're scoring 116.3 and allowing 122.0, a margin of -5.8 to Sacramento's -17.8.
The schedule pushes the other way. New Orleans played last night and tips again at home 24 hours later. Sacramento last played Tuesday in San Antonio.
Sabonis on the glass, Zion in the paint
The Kings' offense runs through two players. Zach LaVine is scoring 27.3 points on 52.2% shooting and 38.7% from three, and Domantas Sabonis is at 19.0 points, 16.5 rebounds and 7.3 assists on 73.8% shooting. Rookie Darius Acuff Jr. adds 21.5 a night, but on 34.4% from the field and 20.6% from three. As a team, Sacramento is hitting just 30.2% from deep.
Sabonis is the matchup New Orleans has to solve. The Pelicans' rim protector, Yves Missi, has missed the last two games. Without him, the minutes go to Derik Queen, who had 11 points and 12 rebounds off the bench last night, DeAndre Jordan and Karlo Matkovic.
On the other end, Zion Williamson was 10-of-14 for 25 points against Denver and shot 56.4% over his first three games. Dejounte Murray (20.3 points, 6.3 assists through three games) and Trey Murphy III (15.3 points, 41.2% from three) give New Orleans more ways to score than a defense allowing 125.5 points a night can handle. Murphy went 2-of-7 last night, part of the team's cold shooting.
New Orleans did win the hustle stats on Wednesday: 36 bench points to 19 and 15 second-chance points to 4, per Crescent City Sports.
Who's missing
Sacramento's official report (12:45 AM ET Thursday) rules out Keegan Murray (left ankle capsulitis), Maxime Raynaud (right patella subluxation), Dylan Cardwell (left calf strain) and Ben Simmons (right Achilles surgery). Raynaud and Cardwell are both centers, so the size behind Sabonis comes down to Precious Achiuwa (11.3 points, 5.5 rebounds) and Jonathan Mogbo. Murray played only two games and averaged 7.0 points.
New Orleans hadn't filed its report yet, which is normal for the second night of a back-to-back. Jordan Poole left Wednesday's game in the second quarter with a left ankle injury after seven minutes and didn't return; he's listed day-to-day. Poole had struggled anyway, shooting 16.7% over his first three games. Missi (knee) is listed out. The bigger question is workload: Zion (32) and Dejounte Murray (30) both logged at least 30 minutes last night.
Prediction: no edge
No edge on Kings vs Pelicans. The model makes New Orleans a 66% winner, with low confidence. That's right on top of the 64.4%–66.4% the licensed moneylines (-204 to -227) imply once the vig comes out. The game splits evenly:
- For New Orleans: a point differential 12 points per game better than Sacramento's, and a Kings defense allowing 125.5 a night.
- For New Orleans: Sacramento is down two backup centers, so a heavy-minute Sabonis has to hold off Zion and Queen.
- For Sacramento: the Pelicans are on a back-to-back after a game in which they shot 23% from three, with Poole hurt.
- For Sacramento: Sabonis's 16.5 rebounds against a frontcourt without Missi.
The 5.5-to-6 spread is about what the scoring margins say, and the moneyline lines up with the model. That leaves nothing to bet into.
The swing factor: the Pelicans' injury report. If New Orleans rests Zion or Murray on the back-to-back, this line will move fast.
The total: 237.5–238.5. Kings games are averaging 233.3 combined points and Pelicans games 238.3, but last night's game finished at 195. No lean.
