Analysis
Pelicans vs Nets Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 11, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has New Orleans around 60%, short of the 63.0% to 63.5% the -170 to -174 moneyline requires.
- New Orleans has lost three straight and allowed 139 and 138 points in its last two games.
- Brooklyn is 1-5 on the road, but three of its eight losses came by four points or fewer.
- Zion Williamson (21.0 ppg) is off the injury report after resting Monday; Nolan Traore is questionable for Brooklyn.
The Brooklyn Nets (2-8) visit the New Orleans Pelicans (4-7) on Wednesday, Nov. 11 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center (GCSEN and Pelicans.com locally, DAZN in the Nets' market). New Orleans is a 4.5- to 5.5-point favorite, -170 to -174 on the moneyline, with the total at 229.5 to 230.5. The hook: the Pelicans just lost by 51, and Brooklyn has lost three straight on the road. Our call: no edge. The model makes New Orleans a slight favorite, but not by as much as the price does.
How these teams got here
New Orleans has had a strange first three weeks. The Pelicans opened 0-4, won four straight (Sacramento, Atlanta, at Memphis, Utah), and have now dropped three in a row: 115-109 at home to Minnesota, 139-123 at the Clippers and 138-87 at Golden State on Monday. That last one came without Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III, both rested on the second night of a back-to-back, but the trend underneath it is real. New Orleans scores 117.5 points per game and allows 122.4, and the last two opponents put up 139 and 138.
Brooklyn has been worse on paper but harder to put away. The Nets score 106.7 and allow 115.7, and three of their eight losses came by four points or fewer: 125-121 at Cleveland, 125-124 at Boston and 124-121 at Atlanta on Saturday. At Atlanta, Brooklyn didn't trail until the final two minutes, per AP. A night later it never led in a 130-93 loss at Dallas. The Nets are 1-5 on the road, and their lone road win came 98-90 at Indiana. Wednesday is the third stop of a four-game trip.
Rest favors the visitors. Brooklyn hasn't played since Sunday. New Orleans finished a West Coast swing late Monday night in San Francisco.
Zion and the Pelicans' shot quality vs Brooklyn's threes
The matchup is efficiency against volume. New Orleans shoots 47.5% from the field and makes just 9.1 threes a game at 32.5%. Brooklyn shoots only 43.0% overall but takes and makes threes: 13.8 per game at 34.4%. That's a gap of nearly five made threes, worth about 14 points a night, which is how the Nets stay close in games they shouldn't.
Williamson is the Pelicans' engine at 21.0 points per game over 10 starts. Jeremiah Fears (15.4 points, 4.9 assists), Murphy (15.6), Saddiq Bey (15.5 off the bench) and Dejounte Murray (14.5) round out a deep scoring group, and rookie big Derik Queen adds 12.5 points and 6.9 rebounds in 22 minutes.
Brooklyn's offense runs through two forwards. Michael Porter Jr. averages 21.5 points and 7.7 rebounds, and Julius Randle adds 20.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists. Behind them are Nolan Traore (12.9) and rookie Mikel Brown Jr. (12.9 off the bench). Ball security is a problem on both sides: Brooklyn turns it over 17.0 times a game and New Orleans 16.0.
Who's in, who's out
The Pelicans' Monday rest list mostly clears. Williamson isn't on the league's Tuesday-night injury report for this game, and Murphy is listed probable with bilateral patellar tendinopathy. Big man Yves Missi (knee) and forward Trendon Watford (ankle) are out. Missi has played only two games, so New Orleans keeps relying on Queen and Karlo Matkovic up front.
For Brooklyn, Traore is questionable with right calf soreness, and that matters for a team that has started him in seven of 10 games. Egor Demin is probable (bone bruise) after missing the last six games. Brown sat out Sunday because he isn't yet cleared for back-to-backs, per AP. He isn't on Wednesday's report, so he should be back in the rotation.
How the line has moved
New Orleans opened -4.5 and has moved to -5.5 at one book, with the moneyline going from -164 to as high as -174. The total dipped from 230.5 to 229.5. The market is betting on the bounce-back spot for the healthier home team, not the 51-point loss.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. New Orleans should win more often than not, but the price already says so.
- Model vs market: the model gives New Orleans about 60%. At -170 to -174 the Pelicans need 63.0% to 63.5% just to break even. ESPN's Analytics projection is even closer, at 58% for New Orleans.
- The Pelicans' defense: 122.4 points allowed per game and back-to-back 138-plus nights don't support laying a bigger price.
- Brooklyn's profile travels: 13.8 threes a night and three losses by four or fewer make +5.5 live, even for a 1-5 road team.
- But the Nets' floor is low: they just lost by 37, and a 43.0% shooting team on a road trip can go cold fast.
Swing factor: Traore's calf and Murphy's knees. If Traore sits, Brooklyn's guard depth thins. If Murphy is limited, New Orleans loses a key wing scorer.
The total: Pelicans games average 239.8 combined points and Nets games 222.4. Those average out right around the 229.5 to 230.5 number, so there's no total play either.
