Analysis
Tulane Green Wave vs Memphis Tigers Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 7, Friday Night)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model makes Memphis a 71% winner, slightly below the 72-74% that a -255 to -278 moneyline implies.
- Memphis runs for 247 yards per game; Tulane allows 218.6. That mismatch is why the Tigers lay 6.5.
- Tulane hasn't scored more than 28 in any game and still hasn't named a starting QB.
- Tulane has won four of the last six meetings, including 38-32 at Memphis last season.
Memphis (5-1) visits Tulane (2-3) on Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, live on ESPN. The Tigers are 6.5-point favorites across licensed books, with the moneyline between -255 and -278 and the total at 55.5. Memphis brings one of the nastiest ground games in the American; Tulane brings a four-of-six run in this series and no settled quarterback. SportsHub's call: no edge. Our model has Memphis at 71%, a hair under what the price implies.
How these teams got here
Memphis has been rolling. The Tigers are 2-0 in American play, have won three straight by at least 24 points each, and handled UAB 38-13 last week. Their only loss came on the road at Boise State, 38-20. They're scoring 38.5 points per game and allowing 20.8, and they've covered in four of six games.
Tulane is in a very different place. The Green Wave are 2-3 overall and 0-1 in the conference after a 20-17 loss at Army that ended on a field goal on the final play. They led that game 17-10 with 7:44 left. The offense is the problem: 18.4 points per game, and Tulane hasn't scored more than 28 in any game. The one bright spot is home cooking. Tulane is 2-0 at Yulman and 0-3 on the road, though it failed to cover either home game as a favorite, per The Spread.
Memphis' run game vs. a defense that can't stop the run
This is the matchup that decides the night. Memphis averages 516.7 total yards and 247 rushing yards per game. Running back Jaylin Carter has 645 yards and 8 touchdowns at 7.2 yards a carry, including 132 yards and two scores against UAB. Quarterback Marcus Stokes, a transfer from Division II West Florida, has thrown 16 touchdown passes against 3 interceptions while completing 70.1% of his throws. The Tigers convert 49.3% of their third downs.
Now line that up against Tulane's defense: it allows 218.6 rushing yards per game, opponents have converted 39 of 79 third downs, and the unit has just 6 sacks and zero interceptions in five games. If Memphis stays on schedule, Carter could carry this game by himself.
The counterweight is ball security. Tulane has turned it over only 3 times all season, and Memphis safety Dylan Smith (3 interceptions) will need a mistake to come his way. If the Green Wave keep it clean and win time of possession, a 6.5-point number gets tight.
Tulane's quarterback question
Will Hall still hasn't said who starts. Kadin Semonza has taken most of the snaps but is completing just 53.8% for 804 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Zeon Chriss-Gremillion started the opener and hasn't played since being benched, and freshman Trace Johnson is the wild card. The offense averages 333.4 yards per game, and receiver Destyn Hill (17 catches, 223 yards) is the only consistent downfield threat.
What Tulane does have is depth at running back. Jaylin Lucas ran for 214 yards against South Alabama, Maurice Turner had 200 against Southern Miss, and Johnnie Daniels added 67 on eight carries at Army. A ground-and-pound plan that shortens the game is Tulane's best path. We found no official injury designations for a starter on either side as of Friday morning.
How the line has moved
Memphis opened at -7, and licensed books now sit at -6.5, with the Tigers' side priced from -120 to -135. That juice tells you the market still likes Memphis to lay the number, but nobody is pushing it past a touchdown. The total has stayed at 55.5.
Prediction: No edge on Memphis-Tulane
We'd take Memphis to win this game, but there's no value in the price. Here's why we're passing:
- The model matches the market. Memphis wins 71% of the time in our model; a -255 to -278 moneyline implies roughly 72-74%.
- The run-game mismatch is real. Memphis gains 247 rushing yards per game, and Tulane allows 218.6. That is the main reason Memphis is favored.
- This series bites favorites. Tulane has won four of the last six, including 38-32 at Memphis last November, and Memphis has lost three of its last four in New Orleans, per The Spread.
- Tulane doesn't beat itself. Three turnovers in five games keeps it within reach of a 6.5-point spread.
Swing factor: Tulane's quarterback. A steady game from whoever starts makes +6.5 live; another sub-55% night and Memphis pulls away in the second half.
On the total: Memphis alone averages 38.5, but Tulane hasn't topped 28 all year. 55.5 sits right where those two numbers meet, so we have no lean.
