Analysis
Colorado vs Utah Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 8, Oct 17)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Utah 84%, but the -700 to -800 moneyline already implies about 87.5–89%.
- Utah runs for 238.0 yards per game and allows only 78.8, ninth nationally.
- Colorado has 11 turnovers in its last four games; Isaac Wilson threw 3 interceptions in his first start.
- Colorado has not scored more than 14 points against an FBS opponent this season.
Colorado (2-3, 0-2 Big 12) hosts No. 11 Utah (5-0, 2-0) at 10:15 p.m. ET Saturday at Folsom Field on ESPN. Utah is laid 14.5 to 15.5 points with a total of 49 to 49.5. The hook: Colorado starts Isaac Wilson, a former Utah quarterback, against the program he left, while the Buffaloes try to snap a three-game skid. Our model gives Utah 84%, short of what the price implies, so this is no edge.
How these teams got here
Utah has not been tested much, and it has not needed to be. The Utes are 5-0 under first-year coach Morgan Scalley, with wins of 66-14 over Idaho, 43-10 over Arkansas, 33-0 over Utah State, 31-17 at Iowa State and a Big 12 win over Kansas. They score 42.8 points per game and allow 13.0. One caution, per Pro Football Focus: Utah's schedule ranks 120th in difficulty, while Colorado's ranks ninth.
Colorado opened 2-0 and has fallen apart since: 41-7 at Northwestern, 23-13 at Baylor and 29-7 at home to Texas Tech, a game in which the Buffaloes lost the turnover battle 4-0. They average 18.6 points and allow 25.4. Per College Football News, Colorado has not scored more than 14 points against an FBS opponent this season and has turned the ball over 11 times in its last four games.
Utah's ground game vs Colorado's front
This is where the game is decided. Utah runs for 238.0 yards per game and, per College Football News, averages six yards a carry. Wayshawn Parker leads a deep backfield, and quarterback Devon Dampier has been efficient through the air, throwing multiple touchdown passes against Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State.
Colorado's defense is better than its record. Per GameOnPaper, the Buffaloes rank third nationally in adjusted defensive EPA per play and second in defensive EPA per rush, and they rank fourth in tackles for loss, though that pass rush has cooled over the last three games. Defensive end Lamont Lester Jr., who has four sacks, is questionable.
On the other side, Utah's defense allows just 78.8 rushing yards per game, ninth in the country. Colorado's Micah Welch will find little room, which puts the game on Wilson's arm.
Isaac Wilson's homecoming, and the turnover problem
Wilson replaced Julian Lewis at halftime of the Baylor loss and made his first start against Texas Tech: 290 passing yards, a touchdown and 42 rushing yards, but also three interceptions, one returned for a score. Deion Sanders is sticking with him anyway, calling him "the right guy for the time being," with Lewis and Kaneal Sweetwyne behind him.
Wilson knows Utah well. He signed with the Utes out of Corner Canyon High, where he won Utah's Mr. Football award, and threw for 1,510 yards with 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions as a freshman in Salt Lake City in 2024. Familiarity cuts both ways: Utah's coaches know his tendencies just as well.
Utah has no injuries of note on its report.
Prediction: no edge, Utah the clear favorite
Utah should win this game, but at this price there's no bet on the side:
- The market is already there. Our model gives Utah 84%; the licensed moneyline range of -700 to -800 implies about 87.5% to 89%.
- Run game vs run defense favors Utah on both sides. Utah gains 238.0 rushing yards per game and allows only 78.8.
- Turnovers are Colorado's biggest problem. Eleven giveaways in four games, plus three interceptions in Wilson's only start.
- Colorado's defense keeps the number honest. Top-three adjusted defensive EPA per play nationally makes a 15-point cover less automatic than Utah's scoring average suggests.
- History leans Utah. The Utes won 53-7 last season and have taken eight of the last nine meetings since 2016.
Swing factor: Wilson's ball security. If Colorado plays a clean game, its defense can keep this inside two touchdowns; if he throws three picks again, it gets away quickly.
Total: Colorado's weak offense and strong defense point to fewer points, but Utah's 42.8 points per game keeps us off 49 to 49.5.
