Analysis
Cal vs Wake Forest Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct. 17)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model gives Wake Forest a 76% chance to win, below the 77.5% to 78.5% its -345 to -365 moneyline implies.
- Wake Forest is a 9- to 9.5-point road favorite after opening at -8.5; the total has held at 53.5.
- Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is questionable; backup Jackson Brousseau threw for 321 yards and no interceptions in last week's win.
- Wake WR Carlos Hernandez (nation-high 49 catches) and Cal S Kingston Lopa (nation-high 5 INTs) are both questionable.
No. 21 Wake Forest (5-1, 3-1 ACC) visits Cal (3-3, 2-1) Saturday at 10:30 p.m. ET at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, on ESPN2. The Demon Deacons are 9- to 9.5-point road favorites after opening at 8.5, with the total at 53.5. Gio Lopez is on a tear and Cal may start its backup quarterback again, but the price has caught up with all of it. No edge: SportsHub passes on a side.
How these teams got here
Wake Forest is ranked for the first time since 2022 and sits second in the ACC after three straight wins, the latest a 38-14 win at NC State. Its only loss came 33-20 at home to then-No. 5 Miami on Sept. 18. The Deacons are 3-0 on the road, score 36.8 points a game (20th nationally) and allow 21.5. They have not allowed a second-half point in their last two games.
Cal is 3-3 and coming off a 25-20 win over Virginia Tech as a double-digit underdog, with its backup quarterback under center. The Bears score 26.7 points a game and allow 25.5, and they are 2-2 at home. The late kickoff in Berkeley, 7:30 p.m. local, is one more thing for a team flying across the country to handle.
Gio Lopez and Carlos Hernandez vs. Cal's ball-hawks
Lopez has thrown for 1,680 yards, second in the ACC, with 13 touchdowns and 1 interception. He has also become a scoring threat on the ground: over the last two games he has nine total touchdowns, five passing and four rushing. Wide receiver Carlos Hernandez leads the nation with 49 catches and ranks third with 720 receiving yards, and Jack Foley caught 8 passes for 156 yards against NC State.
Cal's defense makes its living on takeaways. The Bears lead the ACC with 7 interceptions, and safety Kingston Lopa leads the country with 5. The problem is the run: Cal allows 175 rushing yards a game, 122nd nationally, against a pass defense that gives up 192.5. Wake Forest, by contrast, allows 95.3 rushing yards and 236.7 passing yards a game, and edge rusher Langston Hardy has 9.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks.
The injury report decides the margin
The biggest names on both sides are listed as questionable. For Cal, quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is still working back from the concussion he suffered against UNLV. If he can't go, Jackson Brousseau makes his second straight start after going 29-of-43 for 321 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions against Virginia Tech. Brousseau has not turned the ball over in three halves.
Lopa, Cal's interception leader, is questionable with a concussion and could miss a third straight game. Leading rusher Adam Mohammed (336 yards) is questionable, Carter Vargas is out, and Ashten Emory, who had two touchdowns against Virginia Tech, would carry the load again. Defensive lineman Nate Burrell is out and receiver Cooper Perry is questionable.
Wake Forest has its own questions. Hernandez and Hardy are both questionable, and the Deacons are without defensive lineman Tyler Walton and offensive linemen Dalton DeBoer and Jack Hines. Gio Lopez is not on the report.
How the line has moved
Wake Forest opened at -8.5, touched -10 earlier in the week and now sits at -9 to -9.5 across licensed books. The total has held at 53.5. The Deacons' moneyline ranges from -345 to -365, with Cal at +275 to +285. That price implies a Wake Forest win probability of about 77.5% to 78.5%.
Prediction: No edge on Cal vs Wake Forest
No edge. Our model likes Wake Forest to win, but the market likes the Deacons even more.
- The number. The model gives Wake Forest a 76% chance to win, below the 77.5% to 78.5% the moneyline implies. The spread has climbed a full point from the open.
- Wake's offense is the best unit on the field. Lopez's 13-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and Cal's 122nd-ranked run defense point toward Deacon points.
- Cal's takeaway edge is real when healthy. Seven interceptions lead the ACC, but Lopa's status is the difference between a ball-hawking secondary and an ordinary one.
- Brousseau has been steady. 321 yards and no turnovers against Virginia Tech is not the profile of a quarterback who hands a game away.
Swing factor: Hernandez. If the nation's catch leader is limited, a 9.5-point number on the road looks a lot taller.
On the total: Wake Forest's games have averaged 54.3 combined points and Cal's 55.5, close enough to 53.5 that we see no play.
