Analysis
Baylor vs Iowa State Prediction, Picks & Odds (Nov. 7, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model has Baylor vs Iowa State as a 50/50 game at very low confidence, while Baylor's best price of -350 implies 77.8%.
- Baylor has 34 sacks in eight games; Iowa State has allowed 15 and converts just 33% on third down (122nd in FBS).
- Iowa State is 0-3 on the road, scoring 26 points combined at Iowa, BYU and Arizona.
- Baylor is 1-0 under interim coach Joe Klanderman after a 41-9 win at UCF.
Iowa State (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) visits Baylor (5-3, 3-2) at McLane Stadium on Saturday at 12:00 PM ET on FS1, with the Bears laying 9.5 to 10 points and the total at 50.5 to 51.5. The tension: Baylor won its first game under an interim coach by 32 and owns 34 sacks, while the Cyclones are 0-3 on the road with 26 points combined in those losses. SportsHub's call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Baylor's season turned over in one week. A 17-6 home loss to TCU and a 25-24 loss at Kansas dropped the Bears to 4-3, and the school fired Dave Aranda on Oct. 25, per the AP. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman took over as interim head coach, and his first game was a 41-9 rout at UCF on Oct. 30. DJ Lagway went 16-of-25 for 319 yards and four touchdowns, and Gavin Freeman caught five passes for 114 yards.
The full-season profile is better than the record. Baylor scores 30.6 points per game and allows 15.3, the 12th-best scoring defense in FBS. Its three losses came by a combined 13 points: 17-16 to Auburn at a neutral site, 17-6 to TCU and 25-24 at Kansas.
Iowa State arrives off its biggest win of the year, a 51-49 shootout over Oklahoma State on Oct. 31. Jaylen Raynor threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns, Aiden Flora ran 29 times for 221 yards, and Kyle Konrardy made all three field goals. The Cyclones are 4-1 in Ames. Away from home it has been a different team: 16-13 at Iowa, 24-10 at BYU and 39-3 at Arizona. That is 8.7 points per game on the road.
Baylor played on Friday last week, so it has eight days of rest to Iowa State's seven.
Baylor's pass rush vs. Iowa State's run game
This is the matchup that decides the number. Baylor has 34 sacks in eight games. Iowa State has allowed 15 and converts just 33% on third down (122nd in FBS), while Baylor's defense holds opponents to 32.3% (29th). Long third downs against that front are the Cyclones' biggest problem.
Iowa State's counter is the run game. Flora has 937 yards at 7.2 per carry with eight touchdowns, and the Cyclones average 176.6 rushing yards per game. Baylor's run defense is its strength, though: 99.4 yards allowed per game, 17th in FBS. If Flora can't get to second-and-short, Raynor (1,416 yards, 10 TDs, 5 INTs, 59.7%) is throwing into that rush.
On the other side, Lagway has 1,671 yards with 13 touchdowns and only four interceptions, though he completes just 53.3% of his passes. Baylor throws for 283.9 yards per game (16th), and Iowa State allows 231.3 through the air (97th). Freeman (63 catches, 792 yards) is the volume target.
Two numbers cut the other way. Iowa State leads FBS in red-zone offense, scoring on every trip, and Baylor gives away 75.3 penalty yards per game, 128th in FBS. Iowa State is at 48.4 (40th) and sits +5 in turnover margin to Baylor's +3.
Availability: who's in
Both starting quarterbacks threw for 300-plus yards last week, and neither carries a designation in the coverage of the Big 12 availability reports we found. Iowa State wide receiver Omari Hayes was listed questionable on Wednesday's report and expected to play on Thursday's, per RotoWire. Behind Raynor, backup Connor Moberly is set to miss about four weeks, per head coach Jimmy Rogers via Cyclone Fanatic, so Iowa State's quarterback depth is thin if Baylor's rush lands hits.
We found no designation for a Baylor starter this week.
Prediction: no edge on Baylor vs. Iowa State
No edge. Our model rates this a 50/50 game at very low confidence, and the market isn't close to that: Baylor's best price of -350 implies 77.8%, and the moneyline has moved from -325 at the open to -350 to -375. ESPN's matchup predictor has Baylor at 81.2%. A model that can't separate the teams has nothing to say about a 9.5-point spread.
What the numbers do say:
- The rush vs. the protection. 34 sacks against an offense that has allowed 15 and converts 33% on third down favors Baylor.
- Iowa State's road scoring. 13, 10 and 3 points in three road games is a pattern, not a fluke.
- Baylor's run defense. 99.4 rushing yards allowed per game takes away the one thing Iowa State does best.
- The case for the Cyclones. A +5 turnover margin, a perfect red-zone rate and Baylor's 75.3 penalty yards per game are how a 9.5-point underdog stays inside the number.
The swing factor is the interim-coach bounce: one 41-9 win at UCF is a small sample, and Baylor scored six points at home against TCU three weeks ago.
On the total, Iowa State's three road games averaged 35 combined points and Baylor's four home games averaged 40.3, both well under 50.5 to 51.5. Iowa State's last two home games went 87 and 100 points, though, so the trend isn't consistent enough to call.
