Analysis
Utah vs BYU Prediction, Picks & Odds (Holy War, Nov. 7, 2026)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: the model has Utah vs BYU at a flat 50/50 (very low confidence), while licensed books price Utah at -182 to -193, about a 65% break-even.
- Utah is 8-0, scoring 38.9 and allowing 15.9 points per game; BYU is 7-1 at 32.4 and 18.8.
- BYU RB LJ Martin is doubtful on the initial Big 12 report; the Cougars ran for 47 yards on 29 carries without him last week.
- The spread has moved from Utah -3 to -4.5 and the total from 51.5 to 48.5.
No. 3 Utah (8-0) hosts No. 9 BYU (7-1) in the Holy War at noon ET Saturday at Rice-Eccles Stadium on ABC, the first time the rivals meet as top-10 teams, per the AP. Licensed books have Utah -4.5 everywhere (-182 to -193 on the moneyline), up from -3 at the open. The unbeaten Utes own the better profile, but BYU has won three straight in the series. SportsHub's call: no edge.
How these teams got here
Utah hasn't been seriously tested. The Utes are 8-0 (5-0 Big 12), carry the nation's longest winning streak at 14 games per the AP, and have won six of eight by 14 or more. They score 38.9 points per game and allow 15.9. The two close calls were a 27-24 win at Colorado and a 21-13 home win over Houston, and they answered with a 49-25 rout at Cincinnati last Saturday. At Rice-Eccles they are 5-0 this year, outscoring visitors 204-61.
BYU is 7-1 (4-1), scoring 32.4 and allowing 18.8 per game. The résumé includes a 28-24 home win over Notre Dame, but the Cougars dropped a 39-31 double-overtime game at UCF on Oct. 24 and then ground out a 27-20 win over Arizona State. Utah sits a full game ahead of BYU and Texas Tech in the conference race, so the Cougars probably need this one to keep their Big 12 title and playoff hopes alive.
Utah's balance vs. BYU's patched-up backfield
Utah's offense is the most complete unit on the field. It averages 485.4 yards per game, with 226.9 on the ground and 258.5 through the air, and it converts 53.5% of third downs. Devon Dampier has thrown for 1,876 yards with 18 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, Wayshawn Parker has 726 rushing yards and 9 scores, and Braden Pegan leads the receivers with 505 yards. Per the AP, the Utes have topped 200 passing and 130 rushing yards in all eight games, and they have outscored opponents 89-6 in the first quarter.
BYU runs through Bear Bachmeier (1,750 yards, 12 TD, 4 INT) and true freshman Legend Glasker (32 catches, 585 yards). The Cougars' offense averages 397.9 yards and 175.4 rushing yards per game, and it converts 50.5% on third down. On defense, BYU has 18 sacks to Utah's 17, led by Tausili Akana's 3.5, and linebacker Cade Uluave tops the team with 52 tackles. If BYU wins, it will be because that pass rush speeds up Dampier and the offense stays out of third-and-long.
The LJ Martin question
Everything about BYU's offense changes with LJ Martin. The reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year was listed as doubtful on the initial Big 12 availability report, which the league defines as a 25% chance to play. He hasn't played since a lower-body injury at TCU on Oct. 3. ESPN reported that he is trending toward dressing but won't be 100% if he plays. Without him, BYU ran for just 47 yards on 29 carries against Arizona State, per SI.
BYU has other holes too. Starting cornerback Evan Johnson and tight end Roger Saleapaga II are doubtful, and cornerback Jonathan Kabeya and defensive end Vincent Tautua are out. Utah lost starting offensive lineman Kelvin Obot for the season and has lineman Isaiah Garcia out, but its skill group is intact. The final report comes out 90 minutes before kickoff.
How the line has moved
The market has moved toward Utah. The spread has gone from Utah -3 to -4.5, and the moneyline from -155 to between -182 and -193, with BYU now +152 to +162. The total has dropped from 51.5 to 48.5, a sign the books expect fewer points than they did at the open.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. The SportsHub model has this game at a flat 50/50 with very low confidence, so it isn't taking a side. The market prices Utah at roughly a 65% break-even. That isn't a disagreement we can bet on:
- Utah has the stronger profile: 38.9 points scored and 15.9 allowed against BYU's 32.4 and 18.8, plus a 485.4-yard offense.
- Utah's 89-6 first-quarter margin means BYU may have to play from behind, which is hard without a healthy Martin.
- BYU has won three straight Holy Wars, including 24-21 last season, and its pass rush (18 sacks) can keep this close.
- A 4.5-point spread with -182 to -193 already prices most of Utah's edge. ESPN's matchup predictor gives Utah 65.8%, almost exactly what the moneyline implies.
The swing factor is Martin's final status. A real version of him gives BYU a run game it hasn't had for a month. On the total, 48.5 is down three points from the open and both defenses allow under 19 per game. We'd pass on that too.
