Analysis
Minnesota vs UCLA Prediction, Picks & Odds (Week 10)
By SportsHub Model · Edited by Kyle Parker
The 20-second version
- No edge: our model splits Minnesota–UCLA 50/50 at very low confidence, while the market prices UCLA at -194 to -215.
- UCLA runs for 219.5 yards per game to Minnesota's 99.5, and Minnesota averaged 15.5 points over its four October games.
- The line has dropped from UCLA -6.5 to -4.5/-5.5 and the total from 42.5 to 38.5–39.
No. 8 UCLA (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) visits Minnesota (5-3, 3-2) at 12 PM ET Saturday at Huntington Bank Stadium on Fox. The Bruins are favored by 4.5 to 5.5 points, and the total sits at 38.5 to 39. The hook is an unbeaten team on its backup quarterback's first road start, against a Gophers side that already beat Michigan and Iowa at home this fall. Our call: no edge.
How these teams got here
UCLA has won seven of eight by double digits under first-year coach Bob Chesney, scoring 33.5 points per game and allowing 13.4. The lone close call was the 17-15 win at Oregon on Oct. 10, the game in which Nico Iamaleava was lost for the season. Since then the Bruins have beaten Wisconsin 17-7, Michigan State 28-10 and Nevada 27-0, allowing 17 points in three games.
There's a caveat, per the AP: the five Big Ten teams UCLA has beaten are a combined 8-17 in conference play. Oregon and Wisconsin are its only wins over teams with winning records.
Minnesota is 4-1 at home. It beat Michigan 20-14 for the Little Brown Jug, then beat Iowa 13-10 on Luke Drzewiecki's 46-yarder at the horn. Last week it nearly stole one at Indiana: Drzewiecki hit a 60-yard field goal with 19 seconds left, Indiana answered with a 60-yarder of its own, and the Hoosiers won 23-16 in overtime. The problem is the offense. Minnesota averaged 15.5 points across its four October games, down from 25.3 for the season.
UCLA's run game vs. a Gophers offense in neutral
This one tilts on the ground. UCLA runs for 219.5 yards per game, and Minnesota runs for 99.5. Wayne Knight has 680 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns at 6.2 yards per carry, and the AP credits him with 807 yards from scrimmage and 14 total scores.
Ty Dieffenbach has kept the Bruins' passing game steady: 683 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in relief of Iamaleava. Saturday is his fourth start and his first on the road, with a 9 a.m. Pacific body clock and a forecast in the mid-40s.
Minnesota's offense ranks 129th of 138 FBS teams in total yards (per the AP) at 309.0 yards per game, and it converts 31.9% of third downs to UCLA's 45.5%. Drake Lindsey has thrown for 1,592 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions, and Javon Tracy (46 catches, 460 yards) is his go-to target.
The pass rushes are close. UCLA has 20 sacks, led by Sammy Omosigho's 5.5. Minnesota has 17, with TJ Bush Jr. at five.
Who's missing
Minnesota's blocking is the bigger worry. Starting center Ashton Beers is out for the season, and the Thursday Big Ten availability report also lists lineman Brett Carroll out, tight ends Pierce Walsh and Julian Johnson doubtful and lineman Nick Spence questionable. Against a front that already has 20 sacks, that's a lot of protection to replace. Running back Ryan Estrada is out as well.
UCLA's list is longer but mostly depth: receivers Mikey Matthews and Jonah Smith, defensive back Rodrick Pleasant, defensive lineman Ashton Sanders, linebacker Ryan McCulloch and lineman Sam Yoon are out, and lineman Jordan Davis is doubtful. Iamaleava is out for the year. These are Thursday statuses, and the Friday update can still change them.
How the line has moved
UCLA opened at -6.5 with a 42.5 total and a -238 moneyline. It's now -4.5 to -5.5, 38.5 to 39, and -194 to -215. Up to two points have come off the spread and four off the total. The market is giving real respect to Minnesota's home defense and pricing in a low-scoring game.
Prediction: no edge
No edge. Our model splits the game 50/50 at very low confidence, while the market makes UCLA roughly a two-in-three favorite. ESPN's matchup predictor has UCLA at 67.7%. Here's why the game is hard to call:
- The run game favors UCLA: 219.5 rushing yards per game against Minnesota's 99.5.
- So does the scoring defense: UCLA allows 13.4 points per game to Minnesota's 20.5, and only 17 points total over its last three games.
- Minnesota defends its building: 4-1 at home, with wins over Michigan and Iowa.
- The spot is tricky for UCLA: Dieffenbach's first road start comes at an 11 a.m. local kickoff, in a stadium where fans have rushed the field twice this season.
The swing factor: Minnesota's patchwork offensive line against UCLA's 20-sack front. Four of Minnesota's last five games were decided by one score, which also puts Drzewiecki's leg in play.
On the total: UCLA's last four games produced 32, 24, 38 and 27 total points. Minnesota's last four produced 34, 54, 23 and 39 (the last in overtime). The under has history on its side, but the number has already dropped from 42.5 to 38.5, so there's no value left to chase.
